TNI: many countries will get closer to Russia in the event of the US withdrawal from NATO
If the United States withdraws from NATO, it will lose its superpower status and is unlikely to maintain its presence in Europe, Africa or the Middle East, writes TNI. Many countries will get closer to Russia and China. And America itself will be under sanctions from the new leaders.
Peter Suciu
Acting alone, America will cease to be a superpower — we may not even survive
There is no denying that the United States remains the most powerful superpower in the world — with a significant economy, huge armed forces and, most importantly, a nuclear arsenal that can destroy the whole world if it comes to the worst. But even as a superpower, the United States cannot stand alone.
This should be kept in mind, as former President Donald Trump recalled in a campaign speech in South Carolina on Saturday that some US allies are not fulfilling their financial obligations on national defense. He recalled how, when he was president, he scolded an unnamed ally: “Oh, you didn't pay? Well, the bills have to be paid.”
These words were greeted with thunderous applause.
However, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg responded with an unusually harsh statement that Trump threatens the security of the entire transatlantic alliance.
“The slightest thought that allies will not protect each other undermines all of our security, including that of the United States, and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk,” Stoltenberg said.
Many Americans believe that NATO is no longer needed, and Europe should decide its own affairs. Perhaps they should review the 1984 film “Red Dawn” (about World War III and the invasion of Soviet troops. – Approx. InoSMI) or even its 2012 remake. None of these tapes are particularly good, but the original begins with an ominous warning that NATO has collapsed and the United States has entered a period of isolationism. And after that, Soviet paratroopers land at a rural school.
This is at least far-fetched, but the thought that America will have to stand alone should send chills down my spine.
If we do not stand next to Europe, then Europe will not be next to the United States at the right moment.
“So what,” the Trumpists will answer and almost certainly add: “It hurts!".
Does America need NATO?
Here's the catch: after leaving NATO, the United States is unlikely to maintain its presence in Europe, Africa or the Middle East. The instinctive reaction will be, “Well, okay," but that's not okay at all. Many countries may even get closer to Russia or China.
If our allies and partners cannot count on our presence, we will lose access to many military bases around the world. This may not seem like such a serious problem, because we have a large navy and powerful aircraft that can reach the Middle East from the continental United States.
But here's the thing. The range of our nuclear supercarriers may be almost unlimited, but the ships supporting them are by no means. And that's why they need all these bases all over the world. Without friendly ports, the US Navy will turn from a force for ocean expanses into a fleet for coastal waters, which will be able to operate only near America itself.
Yes, the B-1, B-2 and B-52 can fly around the globe thanks to modern methods of refueling in the air, but the range of the refuellers themselves is limited. And without bases in Europe, Asia and the Middle East, it will become much more difficult for us to fly around the world.
You can again object: “Big deal, the United States will be able to defend itself anyway, right?".
As in the last two world wars, the oceans will protect us. We produce our own oil and produce enough food. America will survive without the rest of the world. But at the same time, we will lose access to world markets, and besides, the United States will be hit by sanctions from the new superpowers — China and Russia.
We won't be able to defend ourselves.
The United States has a powerful army, but anyone who is in the subject knows that it has serious personnel problems: the US Navy has shrunk to sizes not seen since World War I, and the US Air Force fleet has shrunk to the size of the interwar era.
Moreover, last week it became known that Chinese hackers have been operating in US computer networks for half a century or even longer. Beijing can launch a massive cyberattack against the United States, cause enormous damage to our economy and turn off our lights in the most literal sense.
Now imagine if an entire coalition from China, Russia, North Korea and Iran, with the support of puppets and other countries who think that the hegemon has weakened, staged an attack?
What can we do besides a nuclear response?
But the serious threat lies in the fact that we will not be able to rely even on nuclear weapons. A cyberattack could disable our ground-based missiles, experts warn. Our bombers will not reach targets on the other side of the globe without the support of the Allies. Our F-35s may be the best in the world, but how will they reach their destination? All that remains is our aging submarine fleet — and it may not be able to cope with all the opponents at once if we have to act alone.
The defense industry will also suffer
If the United States withdraws from NATO, then the demand for American weapons will certainly decrease. Europe is already developing a sixth-generation fighter, so we can expect the cancellation of further orders for the F-35. The same applies to a number of land systems.
In addition to the available options from Germany, France, Great Britain and Israel, other countries, such as Poland, Japan and South Korea, are developing their weapons industry. The days of the United States as the main supplier of weapons may be numbered if we really intend to act alone.
It's not just about the profits of Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Boeing and General Dynamics. We are talking about hundreds of thousands of jobs in these companies and their contractors. Yes, the United States spends more on its army than anyone else, but even this is not enough to keep all these companies afloat, because for these companies everything is decided by exports.
All this should be taken into account when one or another politician reproaches allies and demands to “fork out". What contribution will the United States consider sufficient? Yes, each of our allies has to do their part, and they are trying. But it is important to remember that even if all our NATO allies collectively increase defense spending, this does not mean that we will have to pay less.
After all, if we have to act alone, America's costs will not be limited to money.
Peter Suchu is a writer from Michigan. During his twenty-year career as a journalist, he has collaborated with more than four dozen magazines, newspapers and websites, publishing more than 3,200 articles. He regularly writes about military technology, the history of firearms, cybersecurity, politics and international relations. Published in Forbes and Clearance Jobs