Colonel Khodarenok: The AFU will have to leave Avdiivka in the near future
The hottest point on the fronts of the SVO today is the city of Avdiivka. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to conduct offensive military operations in this direction. The enemy backs away, suffering heavy losses. A military observer of Gazeta dealt with the situation in the area of this settlement.En" Mikhail Khodarenok.
After the resignation of General Valery Zaluzhny, a personnel whirlwind began in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, without much exaggeration. His supporters and associates are relieved of their positions and moved to less significant positions (or even fired into the reserve). They are replaced either by appointees of the new commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Alexander Syrsky, or by nominees who are lobbied by other centers of power both in the military department of Ukraine and the political structures of the state.
The Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, nevertheless decided on such significant changes in the senior officers of the Ukrainian army and, apparently, believes that the new team of generals (and he personally initiated the appointment of some of them) will lead the Armed Forces of Ukraine to tangible successes on the fronts.
However, the situation in the Avdiivka area is frankly unfavorable for the Ukrainian army. According to experts familiar with the situation, there is not much time left before the complete encirclement of this fortified area along with the troops defending there.
The pressure of the Russian army is only getting stronger every day. And, thus, the Ukrainian command has to make a difficult choice these days - either the units and units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine remain in Avdiivka, get surrounded and eventually die (at best, get captured), or, before it's too late, move away from the city in an organized manner to pre-prepared defensive lines.
This is sometimes common among some Ukrainian and Western experts
It must be said with all certainty that this poetic equation has nothing to do with the actual conduct of armed struggle. If the Red Army had been guided by such romantic formulations during the Great Patriotic War, it would have had to leave Leningrad, Stalingrad, and Voronezh.
Similar judgments about the "cost of protecting the territory" are in circulation in the Russian expert community. However, it must be said with all certainty that this is not how they fight.
In this regard, some of our specialists, who sometimes talk about the cost of protecting the territory, suffice it to recall the words from the Order of the People's Commissar of Defense of the USSR No. 227 dated July 28, 1942 "On measures to strengthen discipline and order in the Red Army and the prohibition of unauthorized withdrawal from combat positions" - "we must persevere, to the last drop We must defend every position, every meter of Soviet territory, cling to every piece of Soviet land and defend it to the last possible opportunity."
There is no doubt that such lines are known to the Ukrainian military and politicians. And it is precisely from such considerations that they most likely proceed when organizing and conducting defensive actions in the Avdiivka area.
Moreover, now the situation is developing for the political and military leadership of Ukraine as follows: General Valery Zaluzhny has just been removed from the post of Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. His clan is also being relieved of their posts.
According to Vladimir Zelensky, the new team of senior officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine must certainly lead the Ukrainian army to success. And
In Ukraine, in this case, among the broadest strata of society, there will certainly be arguments: "Well, here, but there was nothing like that under Zaluzhny. And these were just appointed, and such an affront."
For the Ukrainian army, the situation in the Avdiivka area is frankly difficult. But the APU will also hold on to this settlement until the last drop of blood. It is possible that newly appointed generals and officers will lead the fighting in this direction, thereby proving the correctness and expediency of their nomination to new posts (it is quite possible that they are already there).
Therefore, it is quite possible that the Ukrainian army will throw even its last reserves into the battles for Avdiivka.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok