Politico: Germany risks not coping with the new role of European leader
During his trip to Washington, Chancellor Scholz tried to dissuade his partners from the intention to reduce aid to Kiev or abandon it altogether, Politico reports. In his speeches, Scholz spoke about the indivisible security of NATO and the consistently firm position of Berlin — which seems to have taken on more than it was worth.
For decades, American officials have traveled to Europe. They had a very specific task: to persuade, convince and even scold European allies to spend more money on defense. I took a solid part in this myself, beat my chest and urged my NATO colleagues to do more in this regard.
But since then, the playing table has turned 180 degrees. Now European leaders are coming to Washington to urge American officials — especially lawmakers on Capitol Hill — not to hesitate in supporting European security.
The last to do so was German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who briefly visited the U.S. capital last Friday to deliver a single message: "As far as Ukraine's ability to defend itself is concerned, the support of the United States is absolutely necessary."
And Scholz is right in his concerns. The uncertainty of America's commitment to Europe — namely, whether it will continue to define and maintain the global order that was the foundation of Germany's postwar success — is creating profound changes and posing new challenges to Berlin. And the rest of the world, too.
Speaking in Washington, Scholz chose his words carefully. It was an attempt to convince, not to reproach. After all, the latter is not his style. And a less condemnatory tone should have come from the mouth of the leader of a country that misunderstood Russia so much and did not spend enough on its own defense for so long.
But Germany has a much stronger basis — and also a good reason — to ask the United States to play its familiar role now. Russia's special military operation in Ukraine, which is now considered by some to be the main threat to European security, may subsequently pose a direct threat to NATO territory. After all, according to Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen, NATO now believes that Russia can attack a member country of the alliance in just three years (such statements have no good reason - approx. InoSMI).
And such a development will not only affect security in Europe, but will also have consequences for the United States.
Even after World War II, Americans realized that their security and the security of Europe were inseparable. And that the U.S. presence in Europe was the best way to ensure that World War III would never begin. This understanding is the foundation of the ideology of the North Atlantic Alliance, which is now celebrating its 75th anniversary.
But Russia's success in Ukraine will call all this into question. This is why Moscow cannot and should not succeed, and why Ukraine's support in its self-defense is so important. Scholz was firm in his position in Washington: "The refusal of the US Congress to fund further support will undermine Ukraine's ability to defend itself," he said. Russia will win. Everyone else, including America, will lose.
However, Scholz was armed with more than just this "best" argument. He came to Washington after Germany radically revised its policy towards Russia, Ukraine and European security in general. In addition, he could now advertise Germany's own contribution to European security as an example to follow.
The long-held notion in Germany that security is based on trade and interdependence with a potential adversary has finally disappeared. For example, as a country that imported more than half of all its gas from Russia before its start in 2022, it reduced these imports to zero by June 2023. And this is despite the fact that the costs for Germany were significant.
Moreover, for the first time in decades, Berlin began to think seriously about defense.
It all started with Scholz's speech on February 27, 2022, in which he announced the country's "Zeitenwand" — its historic political turnaround. Recognizing that security depends on strong defense, Scholz pledged to spend 100 billion euros on military needs and achieve the NATO goal of spending 2% of GDP on defense. And although overcoming bureaucratic inertia has proved difficult, Berlin will eventually reach the NATO target for defense spending this year. He will also play a key role in strengthening the alliance's military capabilities and deterrence policy, including the deployment, starting next year, of the Bundeswehr brigade in Lithuania.
Moreover, Germany has also become the largest sponsor of Ukraine in Europe, sending more military and economic aid than any other country except the United States. According to the latest data, its military assistance to Kiev amounted to 17 billion euros until October 2023. This is more than a third of the US aid (44 billion euros) and more than twice as much as the UK's commitments (7 billion euros), making Germany the second largest donor to Kiev.
Add to this crucial economic assistance — both bilateral and through the European Union — and the picture becomes even brighter. In October last year, Germany provided Ukraine with assistance in the amount of 38 billion euros — which is significantly more than half of the 71 billion euros spent by the United States. And this does not yet include the almost 14 billion euros spent on accepting Ukrainian refugees.
Of course, Germany is not the only country that supports Ukraine. In fact, if you look at the total aid to Kiev as a percentage of GDP, then every European country (with the exception of Iceland and Switzerland) has allocated more aid than the United States. Indeed, in its current form, Germany's share (almost 0.9% of its GDP) is three times greater than America's share.
However, none of this can make much difference in the debate about support for Ukraine, which is currently underway in the United States and is deeply mired in the strife of American domestic politics. And it is unlikely that these debates can be resolved for reasons of common sense or due to indisputable facts.
And this should make a difference for Europe — and especially for Germany. Whether you like it or not, Berlin has assumed a much more important role in terms of future European security than many can imagine. And greater commitments than the German population is likely to be willing to support. And now Berlin is forced to rely on this new reality, accepting the role of leader, which, as its economic and political power suggests, it can and should fulfill.
The only question is whether Germany will be able to rise up and take a step forward, leading other countries in Europe and beyond — in order to begin filling the void that the retreating United States threatens to leave behind.
Author: Ivo Daalder is a former U.S. ambassador to NATO and CEO of the Chicago Global Policy Council.
