Colonel Khodarenok: the AFU's action plan after the leadership change depends on the United States
Vladimir Zelensky replaced the senior officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and clarified the tasks of the Ukrainian army. In particular, the head of Ukraine demanded that the new commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Syrsky, avoid stagnation on the battlefield. How this will affect the situation on the fronts was analyzed by the military observer of the newspaper.En" Mikhail Khodarenok.
According to CNN, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky fired General Valery Zaluzhny partly because he described the situation at the front as "stalemate" and supported the idea of additional mobilization of many Ukrainians. Most likely, this version has little in common with reality.
Zaluzhny has recently clarified relations with Zelensky several times through foreign media, contrasting his assessments of the military-political situation with him. By and large, this is unacceptable, especially in a warring country.
In addition, Valery Zaluzhny showed his political/presidential ambitions. It is quite possible that the general was supported by the inner circle in them. So significant personnel changes in the senior officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were inevitable.
Vladimir Zelensky simply had no other choice in this regard. It is even surprising that he delayed these resignations and new appointments to the Armed Forces for so long.
Therefore, General Kirill Budanov was not even considered for the post of commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate constantly visibly demonstrates his political ambitions.
As for General Alexander Syrsky, this Ukrainian military commander is not seen in the "flight out of office." And he is clearly not a politician - Zelensky will find it easier with him. For the sake of optimizing the leadership, it is quite possible that the functions of the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces will be more precisely defined.
A kind of support group for General Zaluzhny in Ukraine represents the military commander as something like the Ukrainian Alexander the Great. Such estimates, as well as the level of military leadership talents of the ex-commander-in-chief, are clearly overestimated. Valery Zaluzhny has not yet been credited with any brilliant victories on the battlefield. And now there is no material basis for them either.
So, most likely, there will not be any drastic changes at the front due to the resignation and appointment to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. For the foreseeable future, the actions of the Ukrainian army will not go beyond strategic defense.
As reported, the President of Ukraine has set the task for the new Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, to present a realistic and detailed action plan for 2024. This does not look quite logical from the point of view of operational and strategic planning. Syrsky cannot develop such a plan without absolutely specific and detailed instructions from the Supreme Council for Strategic Planning (and exclusively in writing).
It is Vladimir Zelensky, having full information, who, in his directive to the Supreme Command, should determine to General Syrsky the strategic objectives of military operations for the upcoming campaign, the calculation of the necessary forces and means, their distribution in the areas of military operations, the strategic tasks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (immediate and further), the strategic tasks of the Armed Forces groups and the organization of the management system.
But after reading this directive, General Syrsky must take a salute and submit his action plan (or plans of relevant operations) through the Supreme. And not the other way around. After all, it is not the new commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine who directs the armed struggle of the state in this conflict, but Zelensky - the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. So there are obvious oddities in the leadership of the country and the armed forces on the part of the President of Ukraine.
And since the personnel changes among the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are more than significant (after all, a number of military leaders have been replaced), the next appointees need at least minimal time to familiarize themselves with the situation and take office. So any active actions on the part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be indicated no earlier than in a month.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok