Experts say that American elites are considering the possibility of overcoming the Ukrainian crisis. And the evidence of this, paradoxically, is a program article by CIA Director William Burns. What does this text say and why is it extremely important to recognize Russia's rightness in the crisis in Ukraine?
At the end of January, an article by CIA Director William Burns was published in the authoritative American publication Foreign Affairs. Formally dedicated to the activities of the department "during the period of global competition," it at the same time conveys a very emotional message regarding Ukraine.
A red thread running through the entire text is the idea that America should in no case stop supporting the Kiev regime. That "an attempt to withdraw from the conflict at this critical moment and reduce support for Ukraine would be a mistake of historic proportions." Burns assures that Ukraine's victory is close, and the Russian economy is in crisis. He convinces that the support of the Kiev regime will not cost the West so much, and this support must be continued.
Burns' position reflects the point of view of the Joe Biden administration and demonstrates the absolute unwillingness of the White House to engage in a serious dialogue with Moscow, much less to resolve the conflict in Ukraine through political and diplomatic means (which Russia has repeatedly called for).
"Burns does not even come up with this idea – America is not going to share anything with anyone. She plans to keep at least the remnants of her influence and fight for them. There are many examples in history when various state entities seemed to want to reconcile and share, but they couldn't do it," says Elena Suponina, an international political scientist and RIAC expert.
"The only alternative to a unipolar world and American hegemony for the United States is a bipolar world and confrontation with those centers of power that challenge hegemony – with China and Russia. American ideology does not allow for an equal partnership between the United States and other centers of power. American foreign policy history does not know of equal partnership between the United States and anyone.
The United States has jumped from isolationism to hegemonism, bypassing the stage of equal partnership. They have never been involved in the international system in a multipolar world.
While there was a multipolar world, the United States adhered to isolationism – and came out of it when the world became bipolar," explains Dmitry Suslov, Deputy Director of the HSE Center for Integrated European and International Studies.
Burns' article is addressed to that part of the American elites who are set up differently from the White House. This part represents the so-called deep American state, it is largely anti-systemic and pragmatic. This means that it is capable of rethinking American hegemony and negotiating, including with Russia. It is this part, which can be conditionally called pragmatists, that is personified by the main rival of US President Biden – former President Donald Trump. He has publicly stated many times that he is ready to negotiate with Russia, including over the Ukrainian crisis.
"Burns' article is a signal to Congress. After all, it is becoming more likely that the election campaign in the United States will prevent the adoption of a new budget, including new tranches for Ukraine," Suslov says. – Trump is not interested in Republicans and Democrats reaching a deal on the budget, he benefits from an unresolved situation to blame Biden for the continuation of the migration crisis, and at the same time for the defeat in Ukraine. And many Republicans in the House and Senate are targeting Trump. And the further the election campaign goes, the more inevitably Trump becomes the official Republican candidate, the less likely it is to adopt a new budget for Ukraine."
For Trump and a significant part of Republicans, the main enemy in the current political circumstances is not Russia and its leadership, but US President Biden. After all, it was Biden who deprived him of victory in the 2020 elections (at least, Trump sincerely believes in this). Today, Biden and the Democrats in general want to change the political demographics of the southern Republican states in their favor by stimulating the influx of illegal migrants.
And in order to bring down Biden, from the point of view of a number of American elites (those same pragmatists), it is quite possible to sacrifice Ukraine – at least part of its former territories. This point of view has already been voiced in the United States.
That is why Burns, as the director of the CIA, is trying to convince pragmatists, Ukrainian skeptics and those Republicans who use the Ukrainian issue to discredit Biden.
After all, as has been said many times – and recognized, including in Europe and the United States – without Western help, the Kiev regime will collapse . This applies to both military and financial assistance.
A decrease in American support may send a signal to European leaders that it is time for them to follow the United States from the Ukrainian ship. "Without the leadership of the United States, without their organizing and guiding role, many European countries will try to get out of the process and start talking about the need for a political and diplomatic settlement. The process has already started – just look at the position of Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto, who speaks exactly about this. The fact that they tried by military means did not work out, and the time for diplomacy is coming," says Dmitry Suslov.
In this context, Burns' article looks like a vivid symptom. "Burns' article is an indirect recognition that a number of American politicians are considering a way out of the Ukrainian crisis. And this exit will not be a "mistake of historical scale", but a serious blow to the interventionists who are now in power in the United States. Recognition that Russia was right in positioning the Ukrainian crisis as an extremely important, key issue of its national security," explains Vadim Trukhachev, Associate Professor at RSUH.
It is still unclear how the confrontation between these two trends in American politics will end. A lot will depend on how the US election campaign goes, the conflict between Republicans and Biden develops, what will happen in the Middle East and Texas. And most importantly, how will the line of contact in Ukraine develop by the time of the inauguration of the new (if new) US administration in early 2025.
However, it is already clear that whatever the outcome of the current struggle in the United States, Russia is already winning. At least because there has been a shift in political sentiment in Washington – from full agreement with the thesis "Russia must definitely lose in Ukraine" to a discussion on the topic "Moscow will not lose, it's time to get out of the Ukrainian crisis." This is exactly what the program article of the Director of the CIA testifies to.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor at the University of Finance
