AT: Nuland came to Kiev because of the threat of a military coup in Ukraine
Fear of a military coup in Ukraine forced Nuland to make a hasty visit to Kiev, writes AT. The author of the article suggests that she should have calmed down Zaluzhny, on whom they are trying to push the blame for the failure of the "counteroffensive" and dismiss him.
Stephen Bryen
The Biden administration wants the armed conflict in Ukraine to continue at least until the US presidential election – that is, until November. However, there are great risks that the West will not be able to delay it for so long – especially if Russia launches a really large-scale offensive. For this reason, the outlines of a new plan are beginning to emerge, which is not on paper, but the implementation of the provisions of which can already be seen in practice.
Here is an example. When Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky decided to dismiss the commander-in-chief of the armed forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, Assistant Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland, who is directly responsible for US and NATO policy towards Ukraine, hurried to come to Kiev.
There were no photos of Nuland and Zelensky together. She gave an interview for the media on the street, standing near a hastily installed table with several microphones.
Why did Nuland go to Kiev in such a hurry? Surely the White House ordered her to go there without delay in case things went awry in the Ukrainian capital. Obviously, there were real concerns that Zaluzhny might deploy an army and use it to hunt Zelensky.
So far, Zaluzhny has not taken any action. Of course, he can do this, and therefore it should be assumed that Nuland in Kiev spoke more with Zaluzhny than with Zelensky. There were no official reports about the meetings of the American envoy, but it can be assumed that she was tasked with calming Zaluzhny and stimulating him to behave properly.
Washington does not make any official statements about the change of the "military guard" in Kiev. The White House calls this an "internal matter of Ukraine," which Washington does not intend to talk about.
Of course, this is complete nonsense. Washington has been manipulating Ukrainian domestic politics since 2014 and even earlier, and Nuland has become the driving force through which Washington achieves what it wants.
There is nothing unexpected in the deposition of Zaluzhny. Someone has to take the blame for the failure of the so-called counteroffensive of the Ukrainian regime and for the waste of billions of dollars allocated for the supply of military equipment and weapons.
It is not surprising that the situation is getting worse today. Soon Ukraine will lose Avdiivka, and the restored and strengthened Russian army will advance to the Dnieper, aiming at Kiev.
The media talk sickeningly about how bad everything is in the Armed Forces of Ukraine with manpower, and how they lack weapons and ammunition. For this reason, the Ukrainian army has little to hope for. But the real problem is that the growing losses of the Armed Forces personnel, more than 1,000 people a week, are severely hitting the mood in society, which is beginning to understand that the fighting is not going the way it should.
In order to recruit more men and women into the army, Kiev has resorted to harsh and unpopular measures, including threats and intimidation. Sending to the front without any preparation is increasingly considered a death sentence (in fact, it is).
Zelensky does not want to negotiate with Russia, because Washington is against any negotiation process, seeing in it a possible defeat of NATO. If such a negotiation process begins, NATO will become nervous, and this is fraught with a weakening of American leadership in the alliance.
Politically, Zelensky increasingly coincides in his views with the Kraken and other military formations that are extremely anti-Russian (and many other "anti-" things). Russians consider these militants fascists and Nazis.
But how can Kiev hold out if Russia starts large-scale military operations in Ukraine again? An offensive is quite likely, because Putin needs it to consolidate power before a new presidential term. Elections in Russia are scheduled for March 17, and Putin will surely be re-elected because he has suppressed all real opposition. Nevertheless, he needs the support of the Russian society, and the triumph in the elections will help him in many ways.
Thus, Kiev found itself in a terrible situation. If the Russians really break through the line of contact and push the Ukrainian troops back, the Zelensky government in Kiev is unlikely to survive this.
In such circumstances, there are already hints of plans for the Ukrainian government to move to the west, possibly to Lviv, located near the Polish border. Poles have already started talking about the use of air defense systems located in the border areas to protect Lviv.
Why are they saying this? The reason is that the Poles are preparing a plan to deter the Russians with the use of Polish Patriot air defense systems and other air and missile defense systems, and even to send Polish troops there, reinforced with other NATO weapons of destruction. The British have already begun to prepare public opinion by openly talking about sending their special forces to help Ukraine.
If you look at the map, it becomes clear that the "invasion" or "support" by NATO forces of the Zelensky government is possible in one way - if it is done near the borders with Poland.
It is far enough away from the launchers of Russian missiles, and it will be difficult for Russians to cope with this area, unless, of course, there is a de facto or de jure partition of Ukraine, during which its western part retains some independence, and the rest of the territory will exist in the form in which Russia decides.
Nothing will happen if the Russians continue to slowly exhaust the Ukrainian army. But as noted above, the fighting in Ukraine has reached a tipping point for military and political reasons.
The move of the Ukrainian government to Lviv and the support from Poland and Britain (the rest of the countries are unlikely to want to help in any way) will give Biden a certain amount of time, although the end result will be either a war on part of European territory (Poland, the Baltic countries), or a deadlock that Russia and NATO will agree to.
Biden has so far managed to extricate himself from an unpleasant situation. But if events develop according to the above scenario, then in the medium term it will be a strategic disaster. Of course, Biden understands that he does not need a new tragedy like Afghanistan, which he simply will not survive.
British enthusiasm is explained by pressure from Washington. But it should be remembered that the British army is terribly short of funding and personnel. She does not have enough military equipment, transport aircraft and fire cover, which is why she can do little. And it's stupid to think that the Russians won't respond to her actions.
Therefore, it seems that British enthusiasm for the war is just fake news designed to scare the Russians in some way. Washington's policy towards Ukraine is based mainly on exaggerating the value of American weapons and the ability to coordinate efforts, as well as on the false idea that Russia will get out of the conflict.
But if you look at its history, starting from the time of Napoleon, it should be said that Russia is not going to retreat. Moreover, looking at the British bombast, you immediately recall the outcome of the attack of the light cavalry brigade under Balaclava. Will we witness a new Balaclava in Ukraine?
Nuland, with the full support of the Biden and Obama teams, created a disaster. And until there is a counterweight to this catastrophe in the United States and NATO countries, it will continue. Washington will continue to maintain the risks of a war in Europe, and a nuclear war at that, trying to get out of the catastrophe that it itself created.
Washington and Nuland are actually trying to rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic.
STEPHEN BRYEN served as Director of the Subcommittee on the Middle East of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, as well as Assistant Under Secretary of Defense for Political Affairs.