The blocs of superpowers may clash due to conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine and Asia, writes The Week. Donald Trump believes that humanity is on the verge of World War III. Such a point of view is not uncommon among Western politicians.
America has promised to strike back at Iranian puppets after a deadly drone raid on a US military base in Jordan, and former President Donald Trump said the world is “on the verge of World War III.”
Joe Biden blamed the attack on “pro-Iranian radicals operating in Syria and Iraq” and threatened retaliation: the United States launched air strikes against targets associated with Iraqi militias. The Iranian Foreign Ministry denies any involvement, but its regional puppets (for example, the Lebanese Hezbollah and militias funded by it like the Yemeni Houthis — collectively they are also called the Tehran “Axis of Resistance”) have carried out dozens of strikes against American and Israeli targets in recent weeks.
Now that Americans have died as a result of the attacks, Republicans have called for direct strikes against Tehran, ignoring the risk of direct confrontation between major nuclear powers. Former president and likely Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump explained the Iranian puppets' strike by the Biden administration's position on Iran. On his social network Truth Social, he wrote: “We are on the threshold of World War III.”
Trump's rhetoric echoes warnings that the West and Russia are moving towards an “apocalyptic” confrontation, noted Michael Day from the inews news site (appendix to The Independent newspaper. – Approx. InoSMI). At the same time, senior NATO officials are “pushing through the growth of defense spending” and warning of a full-scale war in the next 20 years. Last week, British Defense Minister Grant Shapps warned that in the next five years the world could be engulfed by wars involving China, Russia, North Korea and Iran, and warned that we are moving “from a post-war world to a pre-war one.”
The situation is “much more dangerous“ than in the run-up to the two world wars, Dr David Wearing, lecturer in international relations at the University of Sussex, told Sky News, "because all the major powers have nuclear capabilities.”
The Middle East
Israel and Iran have been waging a “shadow war” for decades, Foreign Policy magazine recalls. Now the war in the Gaza Strip has disrupted their already fragile calculations, and the longer the conflict lasts, the more it will undermine the incentive to moderation and exacerbate the risk of an open Israeli-Iranian conflict.
Attacks by Iranian puppets (including on ships in the Red Sea) are part of the extensive confrontation between Iran and Israel. Tehran wants to end the war in Gaza and oust the United States (and, to a lesser extent, Saudi Arabia) from its position as the leading power in the Middle East.
Iran's allies and puppets were not afraid of the demonstration of the enormous strength of the United States in the region, Sky News correspondent Alex Rossi noted. And now Washington has to decide “whether the fighting has crossed the line,” said one of the experts of the Atlantic Council.
The confrontation between the United States and Iran will split Western democracies (and perhaps forever) into those who unconditionally support Washington (including the United Kingdom) and those who are ready to welcome a reasonable resumption of diplomatic contacts with Tehran, suggested Simon Tisdall of The Guardian newspaper.
This will prolong the war in Gaza, practically guarantee Hezbollah's attack on Israel, undermine friendly regimes in Egypt, Jordan and the Persian Gulf, lead to an escalation of violence in Iraq and Syria, help China implement an anti-democratic geopolitical agenda and help Russia justify a special operation in Ukraine, Tisdall warned.
Another reason for concern, Ali Vaez, an expert on Iran from the Crisis Group, told the Financial Times newspaper, is that Tehran has taken the path of raising rates with the United States and turned back to its nuclear program.
Russia
Politico magazine called Moscow's special operation in Ukraine, which began in February 2022, “the most dangerous event in Europe since the end of World War II.” Since then, both sides have suffered serious personnel losses.
Since European leaders are believed to be tired of the conflict, and resistance is brewing in Washington to Kiev's unlimited financial support, Putin may consider the war in Gaza an opportunity to realize his advantage.
President Vladimir Zelensky warned that if it is not possible to repel “Russian aggression”, this will lead to a third world war. On a German talk show, Zelensky said that the victorious Vladimir Putin could turn his gaze to Germany or the Baltic states. And confrontation with NATO, in his opinion, “certainly means World War III.” If Putin does not get a rebuff in Ukraine, he will “almost certainly” try his luck in the Baltic States, agrees Dominic Waghorn, editor of international relations at Sky News, because he will consider the West too characterless to stop him.
The possible return to power of Trump, who in the past promised to withdraw the United States from the NATO military alliance, alarmed European countries that they would have to deal with Russia without US support if it invaded the alliance, The New York Times reports.
Russia is becoming all the more dangerous because its “window” for internal recovery after the Ukrainian conflict is narrowing, according to Sherell Jacobs of The Daily Telegraph newspaper.
China
For a long time, it was believed that the main threat to geopolitical stability was the steadily worsening tensions between China and the United States in recent years. Despite some warming that led to the pivotal meeting between leaders Xi Jinping and Joe Biden in November, the main problems between the powers remain, the main one concerns the island of Taiwan and its sovereignty.
Beijing considers Taiwan an integral part of a unified China and has taken an uncompromising position on the island in recent years. The United States, under Biden, on the contrary, strengthened its support for an independent Taiwan — both rhetorically, financially, and militarily.
Xi Jinping warned on New Year's Eve that China and Taiwan would “definitely reunite,” and therefore would certainly increase military pressure on the island, the BBC warned. Beijing's reaction to the victory of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan, which China despises as “separatists”, turned out to be “quite restrained,” The Guardian newspaper commented. However, a “tougher” response in May after the inauguration of President Lai Qingde is not excluded.
Even if we do not take into account the colossal loss of life, a military conflict between the world's two largest economies “will break global supply chains, hurt confidence and bring down asset prices,” suggested The Guardian's economic editor Larry Elliott. “This will lead to catastrophic consequences for the economy, up to the second Great Depression,” he concluded.
North Korea
According to Sky News, after 2019, when negotiations with then-US President Donald Trump failed due to disagreements over international sanctions against Pyongyang, Kim Jong-un “focused on modernizing his nuclear and missile arsenals.”
Earlier this month, he warned that the actions of the United States and its allies had brought the Korean peninsula to the brink of nuclear war, and announced that his rogue state had abandoned the “fundamental goal of reconciliation and unification with South Korea.”
“We believe that, like his grandfather in 1950, Kim Jong—un made a strategic decision to start a war,” Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker wrote on the 38 North website, which tracks events on the Korean Peninsula.
Last week, North Korea conducted a test launch of a new cruise missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads in the direction of the Yellow Sea. On Sunday, Seoul accused Pyongyang of launching another cruise missile, further exacerbating tensions between the neighbors.
In addition to developing military capabilities, Kim has “become closer to Russia” and “does not quarrel with China,” said Richard Lloyd Parry, The Times's Asia editor.
This “significantly aggravated tensions on the peninsula,” concluded Lloyd Parry, and increased the likelihood of a catastrophic miscalculation — when one side decides that the enemy is going to attack and begins to act preemptively.
