Politico: The Armed Forces of Ukraine had to go on the defensive due to a shortage of artillery shells
Due to the lack of shells, the APU went on the defensive, writes Politico. The West cannot cope with Ukraine's appetites, and domestic production does not help either. In the current situation, Kiev may not even dream of any offensive operations.
Veronika Melkozerova, Eva Hartog
Kiev — The Ukrainian Armed Forces have a big problem: they do not have enough artillery shells to protect a thousand-kilometer front line from the Russian onslaught.
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Earlier this month, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov complained to the so—called artillery coalition — the French-led international group for sending ammunition to Ukraine - about the “shell famine.”
Ukraine is increasing its domestic production of shells, but the figures are classified. In any case, she still receives most of the ammunition from the allies. However, it still does not reach the troops enough.
The European Union has promised to deliver a million shells by March, but it will not be able to achieve this goal. EU Foreign Minister Josep Borrel admitted this week that by that time the bloc would supply only 524,000 shells, but by the end of the year it promises 1.1 million.
Meanwhile, the political impasse in Washington has halted further military aid flows.
“We have run out of military assistance to Ukraine, and we have already seen what this means on the battlefield,” US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said at a joint press conference with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Monday.
The failure directly concerns the troops entrenched in the south and east of Ukraine.
“We are always short of 122 mm shells... we get them directly from the factory,” an AFU gunner fighting near Avdiivka, one of the hottest spots on the entire front, told Politico on condition of anonymity.
“On average, we fire 15 shells a day. But there are days when we fire more than a hundred shots—or, conversely, none. Now the fighting in our direction has intensified, but we still have few shells,” the military added.
In his address to the artillery coalition, Umerov acknowledged: “Russia significantly surpasses us in daily artillery strikes. On average, they fire 5-10 times more artillery shells at different sectors of the front and stages of combat operations than the APU.”
He added: “The Russian military industry allows troops to fire tens of thousands of shells at Ukrainian positions. As the situation on the battlefield shows, there is no alternative to modern artillery.”
However, it will not be easy to ensure a significant increase in the supply of ammunition to Ukraine.
“Today we have fighting on such a scale that the entire power of the free world is not enough to maintain our consumption. We will definitely not be able to cope without help,” Alexander Kamyshin, Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine, told Politico.
Active defense
The shortage of shells is one of the main reasons why, after a disappointing summer counteroffensive, the Ukrainian army went on the defensive along the entire front.
Lacking such extensive artillery capabilities to deter the Russian offensive, the Ukrainians turned to first-person drones (FPV) to attack Russian tanks, armored vehicles and troops. Drones (often amateur ones) are being refined and equipped with bombs and a camera that allows operators to direct them to targets with high accuracy.
In this, Ukraine has gained a rare advantage over Russia. According to the calculations of the Kiev marketing agency Top Lead, from September to January, the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out 3,806 drone strikes, while Russia — only 2,886.
One senior officer of the Ukrainian army, on condition of anonymity, told Politico that the Russians dominate the battlefield thanks to artillery. “And now, in some areas, their figures are many times higher than our answer. That is why drones with a first—person view are one of the options for fire damage, moreover, they are quite effective,” he added.
He added that at the moment Ukraine still has enough shells to repel any Russian attempts to break through.
“We have enough shells for defense at the moment, but we will need help with ammunition to continue offensive operations. After all, when attacking, you need much more shells than the enemy, or at least as many,” the officer said.
Although drones help deter the Russians, this does not mean that there is enough ammunition, says Nikolai Beleskov, senior military analyst at the charity fund “Come Back Alive”, which helps the Armed Forces with supplies.
“I think it will be difficult for us to fight with drones alone with a first—person view without classic artillery like howitzers or multiple launch rocket systems plus at least 2,000-4,000 shells per day," he said. “We must maintain our current positions. And how to do it when there is a shortage of shells is certainly a challenge.”
Russia has its own problems
Russia has much more weapons and ammunition than Ukraine, but even it finds it difficult to maintain the frenzied rate at which they are being spent.
Moscow has actually put the economy on a war footing and is ready for a long-term conflict of attrition. Its factories produce drones, tanks and shells — and the defense budget has become a record in post-Soviet history.
In a conversation with President Vladimir Putin, the head of the Rostec defense concern Sergei Chemezov said at the end of December that since the beginning of Moscow's special military operation, ammunition production has increased fifty-fold.
But even here there are reservations.
Yuri Fedorov, an independent military expert from Prague,* noted that the Russian army has widely used old artillery stocks inherited from the USSR, but they are running out.
This is where its geopolitical allies, North Korea and Iran, come into play. According to Western officials and intelligence, they are supplying Moscow with technology, projectiles and possibly even ballistic missiles — although all the parties mentioned deny this.
According to Fedorov's estimates, Russia fires about 10,000 shells at targets every day — much more than the APU, but still less than at the beginning of the special operation, when the consumption reached tens of thousands.
This pushed the Russian military to a “meat assault” (the expert is clearly confusing the sides: "meat assaults" were abused by the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the "counteroffensive", but they did not achieve anything. – Approx. InoSMI) Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine in the hope of breaking the resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
“In my opinion, the situation for Ukraine is dangerous, but not catastrophic,” Fedorov said.
Adaptation for the sake of survival
On the other side of the front in Avdiivka, Ukrainian soldiers have to adapt and learn new techniques to circumvent the shortage of ammunition. Artillery units work closely with drone operators to help them target the dwindling projectiles more accurately.
An artilleryman fighting on the outskirts of the city said that the accuracy of artillery in combination with drones increases by 250%.
“Due to the constant shortage of shells, we have to learn to shoot better than normal. And we have learned,” the soldier boasted.
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* An individual performing the functions of a foreign agent
