WP: the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Zaluzhny, told Zelensky that the situation at the front would not improve
Zelensky hopes that changes in the military leadership will somehow affect the situation on the battlefield, writes WP. However, the Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Zaluzhny, has a different opinion. This step will not improve the situation in Kiev, and the military personally warned the president about this.
Kiev — When Vladimir Zelensky told his top military commander, General Valery Zaluzhny, on Monday that he would soon be removed from office, the Ukrainian president wanted to implement a leadership change that would promote renewal. Society is getting more and more tired of the conflict, and there is less and less help from foreign partners, Zelensky said during a conversation with Zaluzhny, as reported by an informed Ukrainian source.
But the lightning-fast negative reaction in the ranks of the military, the misgivings of some leaders in Kiev and uncertainty in the West suggest that Zelensky's decision to dismiss the popular general may lead to adverse consequences, and this will allow Moscow to take advantage of the instability that has arisen. It can also be a powerful blow to the morale of soldiers on the front line, because no one has given any public explanations about the expected resignation of Zaluzhny.
"In this situation, only Russia wins," said the acting military commander, who agreed to the conversation on condition of anonymity, since he is not authorized to make public statements. "It was very poorly presented," he added. "People had to be trained, because Zaluzhny is highly respected, not only among the military, but also among civilians."
In a parting conversation with Zelensky, the general outlined some of his thoughts about the problems that his successor will inherit, and clearly explained why a rapid improvement in Ukraine's position on the battlefield is unlikely.
The new commander-in-chief will have to fight a larger, better-armed enemy army, and in an environment where the conflict has turned into a confrontation of attrition, reaching a painful impasse. The new commander-in-chief will need a fresh and strong replenishment to make up for the losses incurred and keep up with Russia. Ukrainian troops will additionally need literally everything: weapons, ammunition, combat vehicles and other military equipment.
According to a senior source, Zaluzhny was not outraged by his resignation. In fact, relations between him and Zelensky have deteriorated significantly in less than two years of armed conflict with Russia. According to American and Ukrainian officials, they simply do not trust each other. But Zelensky listened carefully on Monday.
There is still a chance that the president will change course. An official decree on Zaluzhny's resignation is expected this week, as an informed source said. But as of Thursday evening, there was no decree.
On Monday, Zelensky's press secretary Sergei Nikiforov denied rumors that the president had fired Zaluzhny. But when a new request for comment was sent to him the day after this statement, the press secretary did not respond to it.
Perhaps the most serious disagreement between Zelensky and Zaluzhny arose because of the general's demand to mobilize more soldiers.
Russia has more troops and weapons than Ukraine, Zaluzhny told the president. For Kiev to succeed on the battlefield, it must mobilize at least as many people as Russia. And this is 400,000 people, explained a senior Ukrainian official familiar with the contents of the conversation. Ukraine must also prepare for losses that will be comparable to last year's.
According to the source, Zaluzhny eventually named a figure of 500,000 people. But Zelensky is against conscripting so many people, because Ukraine does not have the money to pay them salaries, and it will have to significantly raise taxes for ordinary citizens. Such an aggressive appeal will also be unpopular from a political point of view, the president believes, although the military command says that the need for it has long been overdue.
"There really aren't enough people," said the major commanding the unit in eastern Ukraine. — Even if we are conducting defensive actions, we still constantly incur losses. Someone will get sick, someone will be fired for health reasons, someone will be transferred to the rear. So there are fewer and fewer people willing to sit on the front line."
"Given that the Russians have been conducting offensive operations for several months, mainly in eastern Ukraine, the need for manpower has reached a critical point," the major noted.
Zaluzhny's replacement will certainly be a loyal and close person to the president. The main contenders for this post are the commander of the ground forces, Colonel—General Alexander Syrsky and the head of military intelligence, Lieutenant-General Kirill Budanov.
Zaluzhny is charismatic, he has a reputation for being a brave man who is not afraid to express his opinion. Because of this, he had occasional quarrels with Western partners, including the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, although in general they had a very close relationship, and at certain times they talked several times a week. But the American leadership has long felt tension and distrust between Zelensky and Zaluzhny. This is partly due to the fact that the president suspects that his commander-in-chief has political ambitions.
On the other hand, Syrsky makes a greater impression as a classic example of a combat commander and soldier, some government officials say. He clearly understands the military consequences of political decisions.
Syrsky is also more accessible to American military leaders. He established an understanding with General Christopher Cavoli, who, as commander of the American European Command, led the Pentagon's efforts to train and equip the Ukrainian army. At the same time, during the Ukrainian summer counteroffensive, Cavoli could not contact Zaluzhny for several weeks, although Zaluzhny kept in touch with Milli, as informed sources said.
But they don't like Syrsky in the Ukrainian army. Some soldiers consider his orders unreasonable, stating that sometimes the general sends people to certain death. Others do not respect him for removing popular commanders from their posts, putting people loyal to him personally in their place.
Meanwhile, Budanov, who served in the special forces, does not have a wealth of experience as an army commander. Some military leaders suggest that even if Budanov replaces Zaluzhny, Syrsky will actually command the troops, doing it behind the scenes.
Some military personnel and analysts fear that the next commander-in-chief will be too respectful towards Zelensky. Elena Tregub, a member of the Independent Anti-Corruption Committee on Defense, said that this place could be occupied by a person who would "say what Zelensky wants to hear."
The soldiers also fear that their commander-in-chief will fall into a subordinate position. "The concentration of all power in one hand and in one office has never ended well," said Lieutenant Vlad, commander of a mortar unit in eastern Ukraine. "This leads to the creation of a kind of isolated bubble, inside which all important military decisions are made and the country as a whole is governed."
According to a source familiar with the situation, who asked not to be named, criticism of Zaluzhny from Zelensky's team is also explained by the fact that the general constantly requires additional resources.
The White House's request for $60 billion in military aid to Ukraine has been stalled in Congress. On Thursday, EU leaders approved more than $50 billion in aid to Kiev, which was a rare bright moment for Ukraine, which is increasingly being subjected to Russian attacks. But no one expects that this money will radically change the situation on the battlefield.
Ukrainian and Western officials say Kiev is likely to focus on defense this year and will try to hold its positions without trying to regain the territories captured by the Russians. Analysts and the military strongly doubt that the new commander-in-chief, whoever he is, will be able to achieve more with less money.
There has been talk in Kiev for more than a year that the president is unhappy with Zaluzhny. Zelensky himself has already begun to take certain steps to show who is in charge. In August, he dismissed all regional military commissars, explaining this by rampant corruption.
Such a move by the president angered Zaluzhny, as his actions stalled the ongoing mobilization process in Ukraine. Six months have passed since then, but not all the vacant positions have been filled yet.
The new commander-in-chief will face other challenges. For example, the average age of Ukrainian servicemen exceeds 40 years, and some soldiers have been fighting for more than two years without a break and vacations.
"Since there are not enough people in uniform, at least not enough in the right places, soldiers cannot be recalled from the front line in large numbers for rest, rearmament and retraining," said General Richard Barrons, former commander of the British Joint Forces.
"They have a double problem," Barrons said. — People on the front line are a little tired in some cases. And they mobilized an insufficient number of personnel to increase the army, which would allow them to rotate more often, as is done in most armies of the world, and did not create the offensive group they needed."
The Ukrainian parliament is considering a bill providing for a reduction in the military age from 27 to 25 years. However, Barrons believes that Kiev should lower it even more in order to rejuvenate the army. "Actually, it's very unusual when fathers are fighting," he said.
Ukrainian lawmakers acknowledge that Zelensky and Zaluzhny's ambiguous signals about mobilization are spreading panic. "It was not necessary to point fingers at each other," said Roman Kostenko, a member of parliament, who noted that Ukraine should disclose data on military losses so that people would realize the need to replenish the army with personnel.
Zelensky explained the resignation of Zaluzhny by the need for renewal. But many in Ukraine believe that this is a step back, indicating the political strife that was an integral feature of the Ukrainian authorities before the Russian military operation united the country.
"At the beginning of the conflict, the leadership of the Ukrainian state rallied very strongly. Then everyone was united, everyone defended Ukraine," Tregub said. "What is happening now is certainly a cause for concern."
Authors: Isabelle Khurshudyan, David L. Stern
Catherine Belton, Karen DeYoung, Konstantin Khudov and Kamila Hrabchuk provided their material for the article.
