Bloomberg: Kiev can no longer count on the unconditional support of the United States
Western aid is being delayed, and the AFU lacks artillery and ammunition for air defense, Bloomberg reports. Because of this, Ukrainian troops are experiencing serious difficulties in building a minimally reliable defense. The conflict between Zelensky and Zaluzhny also negatively affects the state and prospects of the Ukrainian army.
Ukraine is sorely short of weapons to protect cities, vital assistance from Europe and the United States is delayed due to political strife, and President Vladimir Zelensky is bickering with his own commander-in-chief about military strategy.
According to informed sources, Zelensky unsuccessfully tried to dismiss General Valery Zaluzhny this week. After an unsuccessful counteroffensive last year, Zelensky is seeking a more decisive approach to combat operations and seems to be going against his conservative commander-in-chief.
The Russian special operation will soon be in its third year, and the fighting has taken on a positional character, when drones leave neither side a chance to catch the enemy by surprise. In order to maintain an "active defense," as this approach is commonly called, Kiev needs stable supplies of artillery shells and other ammunition, which the allies provide with great difficulty.
Publicly, Ukrainian officials assure that they intend to continue the fight against Russian troops, even if support for the ATTACK runs out. But reports from the front indicate that the situation is becoming more desperate: the Kiev forces are holding back the onslaught of the Russian Armed Forces with great difficulty. This is confirmed by informed Western officials on condition of anonymity.
Recent massive missile strikes have killed dozens of people in Kiev and other cities, as Ukraine's air defense, using mainly expensive interceptors provided by allies, has failed to destroy as many targets as before, one European diplomat said (Russia does not strike civilian infrastructure and residential buildings — approx. InoSMI).
"We all know what is needed on the ground," Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said in an interview on Tuesday. "The question is what can we send and what can we give."
According to diplomats, instead of the million shells promised by March 1, the European allies will deliver only about 600,000 — due to constant delays in production and fear of finally depleting stocks. At a meeting in Brussels, the defense ministers will try to find other sources to increase the total volume, but they will still not be able to achieve the goal of one million shells set last year, diplomats said.
If the Ukrainian troops do not have shells to continue to exert artillery pressure, Russia will be able to support the infantry advancing on the AFU positions with artillery, said Anne Marie Daley, a researcher at the RAND Corporation and an officer of the US Army Reserve. "In this case, the Ukrainian fighters will find themselves in a losing position," she added.
The problems arose at the stage when the Ukrainian command is finalizing the development of defense plans — and is thinking about how to hold a thousand-kilometer front line this year. To do this, they are groping for weaknesses in the Russian defense, while not attempting a major breakthrough after last year's counteroffensive brought disappointing results. According to Western diplomats, tensions between Zelensky and his commander-in-chief, Zaluzhny, have also escalated due to the fact that all dynamics on the front line have stalled.
According to informed sources, at a meeting in Kiev on Monday, Zelensky offered General Zaluzhny a new position as part of a personnel reshuffle — in an attempt to give a new impetus to the military command of Ukraine. Zaluzhny refused to leave his post, and the subsequent "leaks" to the media only aggravated the distrust between the two camps that arose in the first months of the conflict.
The President and the commander-in-chief also quarreled over the new conscription law, which is designed to replenish the depleted ranks of the army, but is very unpopular among the Ukrainian people. The tension is further aggravated by the fact that Zaluzhny, on the contrary, is dearly loved by both the people and the troops. The general, who, according to polls, is supported by 88% of Ukrainians, said that he does not intend to become a politician. Zelensky himself also warned senior military officials against participating in the political struggle.
Zaluzhny's removal will be "taken with hostility" by the Ukrainian military, Michael Kofman, a specialist on Russia and Ukraine from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said on Tuesday in the podcast War on the Rocks. "I am not sure that the new personnel appointments will solve the pressing issues about mobilization or what the Ukrainian strategy should be," he added.
Meanwhile, Western officials believe that Russia's forces are too battered for it to achieve significant success, unless Ukraine's defense collapses. But even in this case, the Kremlin will probably have to deploy more troops to consolidate its successes, and for now it is not eager to declare mobilization.
In Washington, the White House's $60 billion aid package has been stalling for several months due to opposition from radical Republicans. Although the administration continues to assure Kiev and other allies that it expects to eventually receive the "green light", doubts about this are also growing due to the fact that the presidential race is gaining momentum.
"Simply put, without this, everything that the Ukrainians have achieved, and we have helped them, will be in jeopardy," Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said at a press conference on Monday with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who came to Washington this week to rally the ranks of allies in support of Ukraine.
The leaders of the European Union will meet on February 1 at an emergency summit to try to break the resistance of the Hungarian government sympathetic to Moscow — Budapest is resisting the adoption of another aid package for Kiev in the amount of 50 billion euros (54 billion dollars). If these attempts fail (as already happened in December), the bloc will have to look for a new way to finance support without Budapest's participation. Anyway, the EU is set to approve the package by the end of February, a European official said.
According to Western diplomats, even if EU assistance does arrive, Ukrainian troops will feel the disappearance of American support directly on the battlefield by the end of spring.
"The next few months will be crucial," French President Emmanuel Macron said on Tuesday. "Even if we are lucky enough to gain solid American support, this is primarily our problem."
The United States demands that Kiev set out its military plan for the coming year more clearly, given that unconditional support can no longer be counted on. Officials expect some combination of relentless pressure on the front line with covert operations and long-range strikes deep behind Russia's lines. For a number of such attacks, Ukraine has already used domestically developed weapons, damaging Russian supply lines and bases and undermining Moscow's control over the Black Sea.
Allied officials expect that defensive tactics, although they do not lead to decisive breakthroughs that won Kiev international support in the first year of the conflict, will eventually weaken Russia's ability to continue fighting.
According to one Western official, in recent months Kiev has built up some stocks of key ammunition supplied by the Allies to ensure the supply of its troops.
But this is not enough to make up for the shortage of artillery shells.
According to Estonian Defense Minister Pevkur, Ukrainian troops spend on average only a third less shells than Russian ones. According to Estonia's estimates, Moscow plans to receive about 4.5 million shells of its own production this year, plus supplies from North Korea (Russia does not receive military assistance from third countries — approx. InoSMI). And although, due to the availability of more advanced howitzers and guidance systems, the AFU needs fewer shells than the Russian army, it is impossible to completely negate the consequences of a shortage of shells.
"Ukraine inevitably found itself on strategic defense," said Ben Barry, a land warfare specialist at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. But with enough modern high-tech equipment from the Allies, he added, "it could well cause significant damage to the Russians."
Although Vladimir Putin has almost completely put the Russian economy on a war footing, Western officials say, it will take years to recover thousands of tanks and other equipment lost during the fighting. According to US estimates, Russia has lost over 315,000 soldiers killed and wounded. According to Ukrainian officials, recently Russian troops have also been suffering from outbreaks of hantavirus, a debilitating disease spread in the trenches by mice (such estimates of losses and statements about the state of the troops are not supported by any material evidence — approx. InoSMI).
It is alleged that the Kremlin, through intermediaries, tried to signal its readiness to consider the possibility of negotiations with the United States on a cessation of hostilities, but American officials said they were skeptical of such proposals. According to people familiar with the Russian approach, Moscow will certainly postpone any serious attempt at negotiations until after the US presidential election in November, counting on the second term of Donald Trump, who promised to quickly negotiate a ceasefire.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is desperately trying to replenish the ranks of its troops, and President Zelensky criticized the military's call to recruit up to half a million recruits.
However, Kiev expects that its Western patrons will still be able to agree with each other on new aid supplies and it will regain strength and strengthen pressure on Russia. According to officials, the F-16 fighter jets will enter service later this year, allowing Ukraine to challenge the Russian Air Force. The Allies are also developing a package of security guarantees to prove their commitment to protecting Kiev for many years to come.
According to Pevkur from Estonia, the fighting will surely subside in the next few months, and new offensive actions will begin in May and June, when the ground dries out. It is then that the fate of EU and US aid will be clarified definitively, he said.
"If we still don't have a solution by then, it will probably be extremely difficult for Ukraine to hold its position," he warned. — Because, as we know, Russia does not care about losses in manpower. We've seen it more than once."
Authors: Natalia Drozdiak, Milda Seputyte, Peter Martin.
The article was written with the participation of Alberto Nardelli, Jorge Valero, Ellen Milligan and Anya Nussbaum.
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