Time: Zelensky intends to arrange risky operations for the sake of escalation of the conflict
Zelensky is ready to arrange increasingly risky operations to escalate the conflict with Russia, Time writes. The Ukrainian president is driven by fear, and his actions are becoming unpredictable. He doubts the intention of the West to continue financing Kiev, and without this money, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will face an inevitable defeat.
In early January, a gas terminal near St. Petersburg was blown up as a result of an attack by Ukrainian drones. In December, Ukrainian agents even managed to undermine the Russian railway in Siberia, which is located hundreds of kilometers from the war zone. There will be more and more such strikes inside Russia, as fear grows in Kiev that Ukraine will soon have nothing to stop Russian troops on the battlefield. (Unlike Russia, which precisely destroys targets related to the military infrastructure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Ukraine, in violation of all international norms, strikes civilian targets, including residential buildings. – Approx. InoSMI.).
These strikes are more a sign of Ukraine's fear than an indicator of its strength. The country has lost hundreds of thousands of people killed, and millions have been displaced. And now President Vladimir Zelensky and his generals have new reasons to doubt the preservation of Western aid, on which Ukraine's victory in any form completely depends. Realizing that voters in America, which is a key ally of Kiev, as well as in Europe, which provides military and financial assistance, are less and less confident in Ukraine's ability to oust Russian troops from their positions and regain 18% of the territory it lost, the leadership of this country has every reason to worry.
Even if Congress approves additional military aid for 2024, it will surely be the last gift from Washington before the November elections. If Donald Trump wins them, he will drastically reduce the amount of aid provided, and Ukrainians know this. The forecasts for Europe are not much better. Budget problems in Germany, increasing opposition from Hungary and the absence of a leader in the EU — all this makes it difficult to make up for the lack of American military assistance in the medium term.
Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin is putting the Russian economy on a war footing, and Ukraine understands that it must recruit and train hundreds of thousands of recruits. Kiev intends to mobilize 500 thousand additional people. Even if he succeeds, it will not be enough in an armed conflict with a country with a much larger population and a stronger economy. That is why Kiev is rapidly falling into despair. He is doing everything possible to increase the production of military products inside the country, especially combat drones, in order to use them to strike targets on Russian territory.
For this reason, the threat to those who are not directly involved in the fighting is increasing. Zelensky is already taking a lot of risks trying to change the course of the conflict in his favor and preserve his political position inside the country. To do this, it is launching increasingly aggressive strikes against targets on Russian territory and in areas of Ukraine that have fallen under Russian control. The likelihood of attempts at targeted attacks on military-related Russian leaders is increasing.
Kiev will increasingly launch drone and missile strikes against Crimea and the Russian military and economic infrastructure. Strikes on oil and grain storage facilities on the Black Sea are not excluded, which is fraught with disruptions in the global market. New strikes are possible on the Crimean Bridge in the Kerch Strait, which connects Crimea with the Russian mainland. This, in turn, will provoke more intense Russian strikes.
Any such Ukrainian attacks, for which there are many potential targets on Russian territory, are fraught with retaliation. And this will increasingly involve NATO in the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict. Neither Russia nor NATO needs such an escalation. But conflicts have a life of their own, especially when one of the key players (in this case, Zelensky) becomes an unpredictable joker who needs to be closely monitored.
Ian Bremmer is a foreign policy columnist and editor of Time. He is the president of Eurasia Group, a political risk assessment consulting firm, and GZERO Media, a company that covers international affairs intelligently and fascinatingly. Bremmer teaches applied geopolitics at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs. His next book is called The Power of Crisis.