Zelensky should start negotiations with Russia as soon as possible, writes Focus. Western support is waning, Ukraine has almost no ammunition, and NATO is not interested in further escalation of the conflict. Time is running out, and Zelensky himself will suffer the most from this, the author notes.
Gabor Shteyngart
The whole world is waiting for Vladimir Zelensky and Vladimir Putin to sit down at the negotiating table. The situation is urgent. The relatively frozen Ukrainian conflict is seeking to be resolved. Time is running out, especially for Zelensky.
Vladimir Zelensky's appearance corresponded to the general state of affairs — he looked depressed when he appeared on Karen Miosgi's ARD talk show last night. He was no longer a confident wartime leader, but a man who only wanted to give the impression that he was ready to fight.
Miosga showed a video in which Donald Trump recalls his conversation with Zelensky, speaking on Fox News channel — a conversation between the two presidents, in which the American quite unequivocally told the Ukrainian: "Enough is enough. You have to make a deal with us" (referring to the scandal in which Trump was accused of exerting pressure on Zelensky in order to obtain information about Hunter Biden's Ukrainian activities. — Approx. InoSMI).
So far, Zelensky has not dared to criticize Trump, who allegedly refused to provide him with military assistance back in 2020. "US passivity,— Zelensky says gloomily, "would be a bad signal."
Time is running out
He dutifully calls Olaf Scholz, who also denies him the weapons system, a "strong leader." But Zelensky himself, however, is far from the strong man that he once was (and in fact he never was). Under him, Ukraine effectively lost its national sovereignty due to its dependence on Western military assistance. Now he is only in charge of the Ukrainian state, which has lost almost the entire eastern part without anesthesia.
The whole world is waiting for Zelensky and Putin to meet at the negotiating table. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has already accurately described the three stages of this process on June 12, 2022 in Naantali (Finland) at the so-called "Kultarant talks":
Stage 1: saturation of Ukraine with weapons, but no longer in order to ensure its victory, but in order to strengthen its position in the negotiations: "The question is what position the Ukrainians will take when they negotiate. Our task is to make this position as strong and stable as possible. We know that there is a very close connection between what can be achieved at the negotiating table and the situation on the battlefield."
Stage 2: The official start of peace talks: "The question is, what price are you willing to pay for peace? How much territory is there? How much independence is there? How much sovereignty is there?"
Stage 3: time for concessions, including territorial ones. "The question is, what price are you willing to pay for peace? How many territories? How much independence is there? How much sovereignty?"
The time factor exerts pressure. The frozen conflict, in which neither side has been making significant territorial gains for some time, is striving for a solution. Precious time is running out, and Zelensky himself will suffer the most from this.
Five factors should convince him not to give up, but to cooperate.
1. U.S. support will not last forever
Not only the possible victory of Donald Trump in the elections, but also the very hot phase of the election campaign does not bode well for Ukraine. The mood in America has changed. Joe Biden can hardly be considered the master of the situation now — his place has been taken by hardliners against Ukraine. All of them are Republicans and are ready to support presidential candidate Donald Trump.
For several weeks, participants in the Senate debate have been trying to ensure that Ukraine receives new aid in the amount of $60 billion as part of a bipartisan agreement. In return, Republicans demanded tougher measures on the southern border with Mexico. But it is this compromise that is now being blocked by Donald Trump and Mike Johnson, the Republican and Speaker of the House of Representatives, and Biden has to stand aside and just watch.
2. The European defense industry is unable to provide Ukraine with the necessary amount of ammunition.
The European defense industry does not believe in long-term support for Ukraine and therefore does not want to increase the production of ammunition. Politicians ask only one question: who will pay for this increase in industrial capacity? And the only answer is deathly silence.
As a result, Ukraine has almost no ammunition left. According to the Ukrainian military, in some sectors of the front, the number of shots fired decreased by 90% compared to the summer months.
3. Chancellor Scholz and his Minister of Defense take a position of self-defense and have clearly defined the demarcation line.
There will be no "boots on the ground" and no German involvement in the conflict, Pistorius once again said in a recent interview with Paul Ronzheimer, a military reporter for Bild newspaper.
He made it clear that the warehouses and arsenals of the Bundeswehr — despite all the mental and mental solidarity of Berlin — should no longer be looted. He said, "We've come this far already. But there is a limit to everything, because otherwise, if we continue, we will run out of funds for self-defense in emergency situations."
The reason for these statements is that Pistorius and Scholz risk creating a gap in the German defense system if they provide everything that Kiev demands. According to Pistorius, this would open a window of opportunity within which Germany would be completely "defenseless."
4. Europe is obviously not ready (physically) to take on the commitments that America has left
According to the latest data, Germany is the most important supporter of Ukraine, supplying $18 billion worth of weapons after the United States (46 billion). However, the gap between Germany and the United States is too large to compensate for the possible loss of support from the United States alone.
Christian Melling, deputy director of the research institute of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) and head of the Center for Security and Defense, also places the responsibility on Europe: "It is quite obvious that if the Europeans do not take America's place and close the gap, then no one else will do it. And in this case, the investments that we are making in Ukraine to this day will also lose all meaning."
5. NATO itself is not interested in further escalation
Stoltenberg already explained this in June 2022 at the "Kultarant talks" in Finland and has not changed his position on this issue since then.
"Kiev asked for the creation of a no-fly zone, we refused. We must start by creating a humanitarian corridor. We said no. The issue of strengthening the NATO naval corridor for food transportation was discussed. We said no again. This is not easy for Ukraine, because it involves serious costs. But the reason we are not invading Ukraine with NATO troops is this: we want to prevent escalation."
Conclusion: Zelensky, even if we leave aside the obvious fatigue of the Ukrainian people from the conflict, has good reasons to be the first to sit down at the still free negotiating table. Even if Vladimir Putin is not waiting for him there, he is obliged to initiate the beginning of the peace settlement process himself — before it is too late. The offer of negotiations is overdue. Not war, but peace, as Immanuel Kant once said, is a "masterpiece of reason."
