NYT: there are no more people in Ukraine willing to volunteer for the Armed Forces
The number of evaders and deserters is growing in Ukraine, writes the NYT. Against this background, military commissars are increasingly using aggressive methods – they have even been nicknamed "kidnappers". However, this approach does not bring results: dissatisfaction with the quality of recruits is growing in the troops.
The proposed law on mobilization has been at the center of debate, as men increasingly shy away from conscription, and there are demands in the country to demobilize soldiers exhausted by fighting.
When Russian troops launched a special operation in Ukraine in February 2022, tens of thousands of Ukrainians joined the army in a patriotic outburst. The influx of fighters who dutifully responded to the summons or joined the army voluntarily helped to repel the initial Russian onslaught and thwart the Kremlin's plans to behead the government of Ukraine. (recall that the goals of the SVO were called the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine. – Approx. InoSMI.).
But the bloody fighting has been going on for almost two years now, and Ukraine needed replenishment again. Under these conditions, the military command can no longer rely on naked enthusiasm. More and more people are evading military service, and calls are growing louder to demobilize battle-weary soldiers on the front line.
This change of mood is most evident during the intense debate on the new law on mobilization, with the adoption of which up to half a million people can be drafted into the army. The draft law was submitted to Parliament last month, but it was quickly withdrawn in order to be revised.
This bill has caused discontent in the Ukrainian society with the recruitment process. The population condemns this campaign, saying that it is thoroughly corrupt and is becoming more and more aggressive. Many members of Parliament say that some of the provisions of the law, for example, the prohibition of evaders to buy real estate, is a violation of human rights.
The most significant stumbling block is the extremely painful issue of large—scale mobilization. According to experts, measures to simplify conscription will create conditions for mass recruitment into the army. The military command believes that such a set is necessary to make up for losses on the battlefield and in order to withstand another year of fierce fighting. Many Ukrainians fear that such measures will cause an increase in tension in society.
Apparently, President Vladimir Zelensky does not want to take responsibility for conducting a mass appeal. He asks the Government and the military to provide arguments in favor of such a step. "I didn't see enough clear details to say that we need to mobilize half a million people," he said recently, giving an interview to Britain's Channel 4.
The military believes that mass mobilization is a problem for the government because this measure could lead to increased tensions between Zelensky and the main Ukrainian military commander Valery Zaluzhny. In the autumn, the Ukrainian president rebuked General Zaluzhny for his words that the fighting had reached an impasse.
"This is an acute and unpleasant topic," said Pyotr Burkovsky, who heads the Ukrainian analytical foundation Democratic Initiatives. "The political leadership tried to avoid the issue of mobilization for most of the armed conflict," he continued. — But the troops are exhausted after two years of fighting, and this cannot be ignored. Now someone has to show political responsibility."
The problem with recruiting personnel is just one of the many difficulties that Ukraine has to overcome in an environment where foreign military and financial assistance is becoming less and less. It threatens to deprive Kiev of the opportunity to hold the front line and provide labor resources to the national economy.
It has been obvious for several months that the armed forces of Ukraine need to be replenished. Kiev does not disclose data on casualties, but American representatives last summer estimated that the Ukrainian Armed Forces killed almost 70 thousand, and wounded from 100 to 120 thousand. Ukraine is not able to restore its manpower.
Soldiers on the front line note the constant deterioration in the quality of recruits. Many elderly people, with wounds and injuries sustained many years ago, they do not want to fight. More and more men are trying to evade the draft by leaving the country or hiding at home. According to one soldier fighting in the east, desertion is also becoming a problem.
Because of this, the staff of military enlistment offices are using increasingly aggressive methods. They forcibly take people to conscription points, detain them, and sometimes illegally, and force them to join the army. Lawyers and activists criticize the authorities, but almost no changes are taking place. Many Ukrainians call recruiters "kidnappers."
General Zaluzhny wrote an article in November in which he stated that the recruitment process should be reviewed "in order to build up reserves." But he and other leaders have no alternative to large-scale mobilization.
According to Zelensky, the military command asked him to mobilize 450-500 thousand people. "This is a significant figure," he said last month, adding that first you need to make a plan, and only then he will make a decision.
Experts say that this is the main purpose of the law on mobilization, where there is no precise indication of how many people need to be mobilized. According to this law, the draft age will be lowered from 27 to 25 years, deferrals due to minor disabilities will be canceled, and draft dodgers will be deprived of the opportunity to take out loans and buy real estate. And the responsibility of local authorities for conducting the draft will also be increased.
Retired Ukrainian colonel Viktor Kevlyuk, who led the mobilization in western Ukraine from 2014 to 2018, said that this bill is "quite specifically aimed" at simplifying the conscription of hundreds of thousands of people. "The state takes a firm position on how quickly it will be able to provide the armed forces with such a large number of personnel," Kevluk said.
But many lawmakers, including those from Zelensky's party, express concern about these measures, believing that they will have an extremely negative impact on people with disabilities and draft dodgers. They also say that relying on local authorities will only exacerbate the existing problems. Regional military enlistment offices are plagued by corruption, and many officers take bribes to help people avoid conscription.
"All together, this has made the law unacceptable in its current form," said Alexei Goncharenko, a member of parliament from the opposition European Solidarity party. He added that the consideration of the bill in parliament was "disorderly", demonstrating the desire of the authorities to "avoid political responsibility." The bill was submitted for consideration on Christmas Eve, and critics saw this as an attempt to pass it unnoticed and under the name of Prime Minister Denis Shmigal, and not President Zelensky.
Having devoted several days to debates this month, the deputies sent the bill for revision.
"I understand perfectly well that the task of the military is to achieve success at the front," Parliament Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk recently told Ukrainian media. "But we must work together to regulate such important and sensitive processes as mobilization."
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said that the government has already begun to make amendments. He expressed dissatisfaction with the decision of the legislators, saying that the mobilization was "politicized and driven into a dead end."
According to Goncharenko, Ukraine needs a more extensive debate on its military strategy. No one has clearly explained why it is necessary to summon exactly half a million people, and because of this, some civilians are perplexed and confused.
"If our strategy is to go on the offensive against Russian minefields when they have air superiority, well, I don't know, maybe 500 thousand won't be enough. Maybe a million or two million won't be enough," he said. — We cannot compete with Russia in terms of the number of people. They will always win this competition. There are just more of them than there are of us."
Political scientist Burkovsky said that the Ukrainian authorities failed to "plan the pace of recruitment, combat training and replenishment of troops" in the first year of the conflict. Therefore, they were forced to hastily carry out the appeal, ignoring the fundamental problems of concern in the civil society of Ukraine.
Thus, the bill leaves the possibility for the demobilization of the military after three years of service. But the relatives of those who have been fighting from the very beginning say that it has been too long, and that these people need to be changed right now. In recent weeks, protests have become more frequent in Ukrainian cities calling for immediate demobilization. This is a rare manifestation of public criticism in wartime.
Zelensky also talks about the costs of mobilization for the weakening Ukrainian economy.
Due to the draft, there are fewer taxpayers, but they are forced to pay for the expanded army with their taxes. Last month, Zelensky said that the mobilization of more than 450 thousand people would cost 500 billion hryvnia (about $ 13 billion), and meanwhile, the preservation of Western financial assistance is questionable.
"Where are we going to get the money from?" asked Zelensky.
Authors: Constant Méheut, Thomas Gibbons-Neff
With the participation of Daria Mitiuk.
