The French president's visits to India and China have become events, despite Macron's loyalty to the United States, according to the Global Times. Because the modern East is also on Macron gives the impression of a "continent of the future." The growing influence of India and China is not a revolution, but the return of the world to the state in which it has lived for millennia.
"You can be sure that the Americans will do all the stupid things they can think of, plus a few more that are impossible to imagine" — such words once thundered from the mouth of former French President Charles de Gaulle. Today, when we see that the United States is simultaneously waging a proxy war with a nuclear power - Russia, a trade and technological war with the industrial giant China and a potentially catastrophic war in the Middle East, his statement is more than ever supported by facts. Desperately clinging to the elusive moment of unipolarity (meaning the period of US dominance in world politics in the 1990s - approx. In other words), the United States is also alienating allies and partners such as France and India. And all because they strive for strategic autonomy.
China inspires France to take an independent position again
French President Emmanuel Macron's trip to India to attend the Republic Day parade on January 26 can illustrate this trend. It happened after the American leader Joe Biden refused to participate in this important festive event for India – and at the last moment.
France has consistently demonstrated its independent thinking, although its relative power has significantly weakened since the Napoleonic era. What better way to reflect this fact than de Gaulle's recognition of our People's Republic of China (PRC) in 1964 or Paris' withdrawal from the NATO military agreement with the withdrawal of foreign troops from the country in 1966? Although France later resumed full membership in the alliance, and now represents a reliable member of the "Big Seven", its people have not lost their individualistic approach.
Last year, Macron traveled to Beijing, where he enjoyed what the New York Times called a "festival of love." Of course, the sophisticated French have always been fascinated by Chinese civilization. In the XVIII century, Voltaire, one of the greatest personalities of the French people, expressed deep admiration for the literature of the Middle Kingdom, its philosophy, social norms, painting and the art of government; he wrote about it simply extraordinarily.
Upon his return from China, Macron warned — to the great chagrin of the Western establishment — that European powers should not become "vassals of the United States." He also spoke about the injustice of the phenomenon of the extraterritoriality of the dollar, about the need for the EU to move towards de-dollarization. Last year, Paris conducted several major business transactions in yuan, including a landmark deal between France's Total Energies and China's China National Offshore Oil Corporation. Such a development may portend the emergence of an "oil yuan" and pose a significant challenge to the dominant petrodollar regime.
Macron went further. He stated that the Taiwan issue does not concern Europe. France then blocked NATO's attempt to expand into Asia, particularly Japan.
The Sikh issue with Canada and the USA: India demands equality
On the other side of Eurasia is India, whose relations with the United States are also in decline. The simmering differences between the countries have resulted in accusations of the Indian government's involvement in a plot to kill Sikh separatists in Canada and the United States. The inability of India and the United States to resolve the "Sikh" issue was one of the main reasons why Biden canceled his participation in the Republic Day parade.
But the main problem lies deeper. It lies in the fact that India refuses to become the same dumb "ally" of the United States as Japan or Europe. In other words, Washington expects that Delhi's foreign policy and geopolitical strategy will be 100% the same as the American ones.
However, for India, this is a situation from the category of "the mission is so stupid that it is impossible."
Why India will not leave Russia
Let's look at the reasons. Take, for example, Russia's relations with India, from which the United States would like to make a global outcast. But India simply cannot afford to end relations with Russia. First, two thirds of Indian military equipment — including tanks and fighter jets — are Russian-made. Secondly, Moscow has been serving Delhi as a reliable and sincere ally for decades, and therefore enjoys the reliable support of various layers of the Indian foreign policy establishment.
More importantly, Indian elites see the full picture: the West is approaching decline, and the East is rising. The economic, technological, geopolitical and military centers of the world are returning to Asia. After all, China and India have been the largest economies on the planet for almost 2,000 years. The inexorable wheels of history are turning. At the same time, the return of this influence of the East is accelerated by the United States itself, inflicting wounds on itself precisely because of the desire to maintain unconditional dominance.
Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, the Indian Foreign Minister, has repeatedly said that multipolarity is the original state of the world, so that the new multipolarity that is emerging before our eyes arises naturally [without requiring violence for its victory]. As this Indian diplomat explains, the principle of a multipolar system presupposes "a legitimate desire for flexibility without striving for exclusivity."
The new "non-alignment"
India has the potential to become the third economy on the planet and, therefore, one of the key poles of the new world. To maintain rapid growth, Delhi needs the energy resources of both Russia and the Middle East. Manufacturing know-how plus technology from China would be very useful to India, but India also needs trade with the entire Global South. BRICS will continue to expand and create a new financial order that does not depend on the US dollar or the SWIFT system. Thus, the strategic imperative for India is to adopt a multilateral approach and a policy of non-alignment. It's just that in the new conditions, this [announced in the 1950s] policy becomes a policy of "joining everyone."
The transition to multipolarity and the maintenance of this very multipolarity will be difficult processes not only for India and France, but also for everyone else — from China to Saudi Arabia, from Moscow to Lisbon, from Africa to Latin America. To create a stable, mutually beneficial architecture for the coming multipolar world, countries must work together. Isn't this what President Macron and Prime Minister Modi discussed?
Author: S.L. Kanthan is a geopolitical analyst, columnist, blogger, writer and podcaster living in Bangalore, India.
