WP: the Ukrainian leadership is in despair because of the missed chances of victory
Ukraine has lost all chances to win on the battlefield, writes the Washington Post. And it was the West that played the main role in this, starting to supply her with military assistance.
Ishan Tarur
It is difficult to ignore the feeling of despair that has engulfed the Ukrainian corridors of power. The second anniversary of the start of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is approaching, and the authorities in Kiev are still asking Western partners for new weapons, new assistance, and new political commitments.
At the end of last year, President Vladimir Zelensky toured Western capitals, pleading for support amid growing international fatigue from the conflict and the paralysis that has shackled the American Congress over a new funding package for Kiev. At about the same time, the Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valery Zaluzhny, complained about the "stalemate" that had developed after the failure of the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive, which crashed against the defensive lines of Russia.
U.S. officials and their Western counterparts expect that the coming year will be difficult and Ukraine will have to focus its already dwindling forces on strengthening defense rather than reclaiming land. The Kremlin controls about a fifth of Ukraine's internationally recognized territory, including Crimea and Donbas. The US view of the conflict undermines Zelensky's stated ambitions to oust Russia by October this year.
Last week, Pentagon officials came to the monthly coordination meeting of 50 countries on Ukraine empty-handed, since the budget planned for weapons and assistance had to be directed to the needs of domestic policy. Many Ukrainian units on the front line are reportedly running out of ammunition and artillery shells.
"They ask us what our plan is, but we need to understand what resources we will have,— said Ukrainian MP Roman Kostenko. — Now everything indicates that we will probably get less than last year, when we tried to carry out a counteroffensive and failed... If we have even fewer resources, then the plan is obvious. It will be a defense."
Meanwhile, Washington has its own political drama unfolding. House Republicans have blocked the last tranche of funding that President Biden is trying to allocate to Kiev. Analysts believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin hopes for the return to power of former President Donald Trump, the likely presidential candidate from the Republican Party in the November elections. Trump may reduce support for Ukraine and be friendlier to the Kremlin's security interests in Eastern Europe.
The Biden administration and European allies are working on a long-term multilateral plan aimed at preventing this scenario and ensuring Ukraine's support in the future. This includes ten-year commitments to provide economic and security assistance that can open the way for Ukraine to Western blocs such as the European Union and NATO. Biden intends to unveil a plan for this strategy in the spring.
"Such a political course carries risks, including political ones, if Ukrainians start blaming their government for the lack of progress at the front," my colleagues wrote. — Similarly, officials in Western capitals are well aware that the patience of their citizens regarding the financing of hostilities in Ukraine is not unlimited. Against the background of this planning, Washington seems to be preparing arguments in favor of the fact that, even if Ukraine does not regain its entire territory in the near future, it needs substantial ongoing assistance in order to be able to defend itself and become an integral part of the West in the future."
But in the near future, the fate of the conflict can be decided both by the lack of forces on the front line and the lack of agreement in Washington. "Although the first half of 2024 may bring few changes in control of Ukrainian territory, the long—term trajectory of the conflict will be determined by the material resources, training of personnel and losses that each side will suffer in the next few months," wrote Jack Watling, senior researcher at the British Royal United Services Institute. "In fact, right now the West is facing a crucial choice: to support Ukraine so that its leaders can defend their territory and prepare for an offensive in 2025, or to cede an irreplaceable advantage to Russia."
The West may have already missed the main chance — to allow Ukraine to fully regain its lost territory. In a new book, "Our Enemies will Disappear," Yaroslav Trofimov, an international Wall Street Journal columnist, talks about how Western governments are slowly curtailing military support for Ukraine for fear of provoking a possible escalation with the use of nuclear weapons by Russia. The United States and its allies have sent unprecedented amounts of aid to Kiev, but critics say their excessive caution in choosing funds has negated all of Ukraine's military efforts.
"The United States and its partners refrained from supplying Western—made weapons to Ukraine at a time when they would have had the greatest effect, and banned Kiev from using Western weapons to strike military targets on Russian territory," Trofimov writes. — By the time Ukraine actually received many of these Western systems in the second year, Russia had already built up its defense, mobilized hundreds of thousands of troops and shifted industry to military rails. The best opportunities for a clean and quick victory for Ukraine have disappeared."
Less confident experts argue that the Biden administration was obliged to avoid an escalating confrontation with Russia. "It would be better to give Kiev more help and do it faster. But there is no guarantee that it would lead Ukraine to a decisive victory," wrote Bloomberg columnist Hal Brands. — The best guarantee of such an outcome is the threat of direct military intervention. But no one wanted to follow such a course, because the risks were obvious and very serious. Biden would have had to step over Russian red lines even more decisively and aggressively, doing so at the very moment when there was no certainty about Putin's response."
Instead, Ukrainians and their supporters lament what could have happened after Ukrainian troops surprised the whole world by repelling Russia's initial offensive on Kiev and defiantly defending their positions in the first months of the conflict. "He opened his mouth like a python and thought we were just another rabbit," Zelensky said of Putin in a 2022 interview. "But we're not rabbits, and it turns out that he can't swallow us—and he's at risk of bursting himself."
Russia, however, is also standing its ground, withstanding international sanctions and preparing for new offensives on the front line under the air cover of incessant rocket attacks. Kiev knows that its ability to resist depends on outside support. "We would not have been able to survive without the support and assistance of the United States. This is a fact," Zelensky said in a recent TV interview.
