Asharq Al-Awsat: the war in the Gaza Strip will undermine the authority of the West
The longer the war in Gaza goes on, the worse it gets for the West, writes Asharq Al-Awsat. The author of the article weighed all the components of the equation and came to the conclusion that the conflict in the Middle East would undermine the authority of the United States. And Russia, on the contrary, will only benefit.
Last year, Russia joined countries calling for a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip, and President Vladimir Putin called the level of violence "very high on both sides."
Putin laid the blame not on Hamas or Israel, but on the "failure of US policy in the Middle East." He also suggested that Western weapons from Ukraine could have entered the Middle East through the black market.
In addition, at the end of last year, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov praised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saying that Israel's tasks in Gaza are similar to the goal of denazification during a special military operation in Ukraine.
Many prominent Russian politicians and analysts have condemned what they called the West's "double standards" in relation to the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine. The fierce fighting between Israel and Hamas is certainly a blessing for Putin.
Putin draws a fine line between the two warring sides. For him, the war in the Middle East is a great opportunity not only to undermine Washington's authority in the international arena, but also to become a mediator in the settlement of the Palestinian—Israeli conflict in order to reassert himself as a prominent player in the region.
What is happening now suits Russia in the long run. The war in Gaza has undermined the authority of the United States among the Arabs, which is a great "gift" for Moscow. Putin sees this conflict as an effective way to strike at America's position in the Middle East. He is probably willing to put up with some nuances regarding Israel in order to harm the United States. Russia will expand its influence in the Arab world at the expense of America — this is its main goal related to the conflict in Gaza.
Putin's other trump card is that the war in Gaza distracts the West from the conflict in Ukraine and forces the U.S. government and European capitals to make difficult decisions, such as how to distribute their limited resources between their two needy allies (Israel and Ukraine).
If the United States redirects some of the weapons destined for Kiev to the Middle East, it will be another victory for the Kremlin. The longer the war in the Middle East lasts, the more likely it is that Israel will need American weapons, including artillery shells and drones, which Kiev also lacks. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky believes that Russia will benefit if Europe splits because of the conflict in the Middle East.
"Russia is interested in unleashing a war in the Middle East so that a new source of pain and suffering can undermine world unity, increase discord and contradictions and thereby help Russia destroy freedom in Europe," Zelensky said.
Russia— the world's largest oil producer, will thrive on rising oil prices amid escalating conflict in the Middle East. It will significantly increase revenues from its exports and will be able to spend more on defense spending.
Another trump card for the Kremlin is that the war in Gaza has most likely suspended or completely buried the Biden administration's long—standing efforts to normalize Arab-Israeli relations. Moscow has long considered the Abraham Accords to be a rather controversial project that strengthens US hegemony and pushes Russia out of the region.
Moscow is also seeking to establish strong diplomatic relations with the Hamas movement, which it does not consider a terrorist organization. At the end of October, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that a Hamas delegation had arrived in Moscow and met with Russian officials to discuss the war in Gaza. Eight people with dual citizenship (Russia and Israel) remain among the hostages held by Hamas.
The more Western allies, especially the United States, provide Israel with economic and military assistance, the less Ukraine remains. This gives Russia, and Putin personally, the opportunity to try to act as a peacemaker. He has already taken the first step — invited a Hamas delegation to Moscow and condemned Israel's strikes on the Gaza Strip.
Putin also expressed his condolences to Netanyahu later than others in connection with the killing of more than 1,200 Israelis as a result of the first Hamas attack. At the same time, Hamas extolled its "friendship" with Russia. Moscow almost immediately received an official Hamas delegation, much to Israel's displeasure. However, Putin tried to position Moscow as a mediator or potential mediator between Hamas and Israel. It is hard to imagine that Israel would agree to this, given Putin's current actions. Last week, another Hamas delegation visited Moscow. Her demands were to receive international guarantees that Hamas would continue to rule the Gaza Strip alone, as well as Israel's promises to stop the killings. In addition, the delegation also met with the Special Representative of the President of Russia for the Middle East.
Putin and Netanyahu have already met many times. And evidence of the strength of their relationship is that Israel did not support Western sanctions against Russia and refuses to supply weapons to Kiev. But no matter how relations between the two countries continue to be built, as long as there is a war in the Middle East, Israel will not be able to support Ukraine. And this is another victory for Putin.
Some military experts also argue that there is a potential disadvantage for Moscow in all this. The downside is that the war in Gaza could damage Israeli-Russian relations. Putin will try to avoid this, but not everything depends on him. There will come a time when the Russian president will have to decide which side to take.
There is an opinion that Putin will not be able to balance for a long time, or that Netanyahu and the Israelis will be tolerant of any country that does not declare and demonstrate absolute solidarity with Israel.
The United States has "levers of pressure" on both Israel and Ukraine. They can prevent conflicts from escalating into large-scale wars, requiring, for example, direct American intervention, as well as avoid the application of Article 5 of the NATO Charter on the eastern front.
Although fighting on two fronts certainly leads to a rapid depletion of resources, Ukraine and Israel need different weapons.
Tel Aviv and Kiev are Washington's closest allies in the political arena. The Biden administration has made it clear that it intends to continue to support both countries, despite the battles in the House and Senate. However, the situation may change at any moment.
According to some countries, one of the "disadvantages" of America and its democratic change of power every four years is that its alliances, intentions and stated strategies change depending on the "whim" of the new administration. How long will this uncertainty last, which is mostly dictated by the upcoming elections and the question of who will become the next president?
The author of the article: Hoda al-Husseini (─دى الحسيني)
