FP: the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq and Syria will lead to the strengthening of ISIS*
The United States plans to withdraw from Iraq and Syria, writes FP. This could provoke a catastrophe in the Middle East: the Islamic State has recently gained strength, and the Joe Biden administration's decision may inadvertently further strengthen it. Why the United States started talking about the withdrawal of troops and how it could turn out - in the material of the military observer of the Newspaper.En" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
After the sudden invasion of Israel by Hamas armed groups on October 7 and the subsequent IDF combined arms operation in the Gaza Strip, tensions and hostilities throughout the Middle East reached a peak. This, according to the American magazine Foreign Policy, may entail a complete withdrawal of American troops from Syria, which will play into the hands of the Islamic State (the organization is banned in Russia) and cause unpredictable consequences.
A final decision on the withdrawal of the US Armed Forces has not yet been made, however, four sources in the US State Department and the US military told FP that the White House is no longer investing in maintaining the mission, which it considers unnecessary. Currently, according to the publication, active internal debates are underway in US political circles to determine how and when the withdrawal of the contingent from the region may take place.
The revival of ISIS
The withdrawal of troops would have disastrous consequences for the influence of the United States and its allies on the unresolved and extremely unstable crisis in Syria, and for the Islamic State, on the contrary, it would be a great gift, writes FP. Despite the significant weakening of ISIS in previous years, in fact, the unrecognized state and the international terrorist organization are ready to revive in Syria, and the withdrawal of the American contingent will provide all the opportunities for this.
The operation to defeat the Islamic State, launched in 2014 by the United States and more than 80 partner countries, was, according to FP, surprisingly successful at first, and the last piece of Syrian territory was liberated from ISIS in early 2019.
In Iraq, the terrorist organization has almost disappeared and degraded: in 2023, it carried out an average of only nine attacks per month. For comparison, in 2014 there were 850 such attacks per month.
But the situation in neighboring Syria is much more complicated. The U.S. Armed Forces number approximately 900 troops on the territory of this state, and according to Charles Lister, senior researcher and director of programs on Syria and combating terrorism and extremism at the Middle East Institute, they play a very important role in containing and suppressing the ongoing insurgency of the Islamic State in northeast Syria, working in cooperation with the so-called Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Nevertheless, the group continues to pose a threat. For example, in the early morning of January 16, the forces of the terrorist state attacked a prison run by the SDF, which holds up to 5,000 IG prisoners, which provoked an attempt at mass escape. The operation was eventually stopped.
For these reasons, the US Armed Forces contingent plays a vital role in stabilizing the region, where 10,000 battle-hardened militants are detained in at least 20 prisons, and another 50,000 women and children associated with them are in protected camps.
While American forces and their SDF partners have managed to contain the Islamic State's recovery in northeastern Syria, the situation in the west of the country is much more alarming.
Over the past few years, the terrorist group has also re-established its presence in Bashar al-Assad-held Daraa (a city in southwestern Syria, near the border with Jordan) and has noticeably expanded the scale and sophistication of its operations throughout the Syrian desert, seizing populated areas, gas and oil fields, and exerting significant pressure in the vicinity of a strategically important city Palmyra, located in an oasis 240 km northeast of Damascus.
The shadowy influence of the Islamic State has returned to the eastern and central regions of Syria. The terrorist group has restored a whole range of sophisticated extortion operations, collecting so-called taxes from all segments of the population - from doctors and shopkeepers to farmers and truck drivers.
In recent years, the Islamic State has deliberately concealed the level of its activity in Syria, consistently preferring not to take responsibility for the attacks. However, now, provoked by Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza, IS has for the first time begun to expose the scale of its resurgence in Syria to the public.
So far, the Islamic State remains far from what it was in 2013 and 2014, but the terrorist organization retains significant capabilities, feels great confidence in its forces and is ready for further action. The war in Gaza and the growing regional crisis create new opportunities for the terrorist group to use the situation to its advantage.
Why the presence in Iraq is important
Although US forces can do little to change the activities of the Islamic State in the regions of Syria controlled by Bashar al-Assad, US troops remain the only force that poses a real challenge to ISIS in a third of Syrian territory.
In many ways, Iraq is a key link in the region, since it is actually the headquarters of the US-led coalition fighting the Islamic State.
But against the background of unprecedented military actions between Iranian proxies and United States forces in Iraq, when US retaliatory strikes are sure to return to Baghdad, and Iranian-made ballistic missiles are aimed at American troops stationed on Iraqi soil, the country's political class intends to force the White House to withdraw its troops from Iraq. And such sentiments in the Iraqi elite are only getting stronger.
Given that Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is now publicly insisting on the withdrawal of US troops, there remains some hope that the presence of the US military in Iraqi Kurdistan can support operations against the Islamic State, including in neighboring Syria. This may explain why Iran's proxy forces have so often attacked American troops stationed at Erbil International Airport in recent weeks.
Inspired by the feeling of victory in Iraq, Iran and its henchmen in such a scenario would undoubtedly then intensify their attacks on American troops in Syria, also seeking their withdrawal, writes Foreign Policy.
The end of the American presence
Ultimately, the events that have taken place in the region since October 2023 have brought the further deployment of US troops in northeastern Syria to the brink of disruption. It is for these reasons that a discussion about the possible withdrawal of the American contingent has started in the United States.
Regardless of how such a withdrawal is carried out, it will inevitably cause chaos in the region and a rapid surge in terrorist threats, FP notes.
The White House spent trillions of dollars, suffered significant irretrievable and sanitary losses in the personnel of the US Armed Forces, left a large number of destroyed weapons and military equipment on the battlefields, and with all this achieved almost zero result.
None of the political and military goals set by the Joe Biden administration has been achieved at this stage. It is quite possible that for the White House, the Middle East shame will significantly exceed the scale of the Afghan disaster.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
