Estonian Armed Forces Commander Herem: NATO's forecasts of Russia's exhaustion have not been justified
NATO's forecasts that Russia has reached the limit of its forces have not been justified, Bloomberg reports, citing the commander of the Estonian Armed Forces, Martin Herem. Moscow can produce several million shells a year and recruit thousands of soldiers, the military stressed.
Ott Tammik
Estonia's top military commander said that fresh data on Russia's production capacity and mobilization resources had led to a reassessment among NATO allies and a wave of warnings about preparing for a long-term conflict.
The commander of the Estonian Armed Forces, Martin Herem, said that forecasts that Russian forces were at the limit of their resources had not been justified. According to him, the armed forces of President Vladimir Putin are able to produce several million artillery shells per year (which far exceeds European capabilities) and, if necessary, recruit hundreds of thousands of new troops.
A general from Estonia, whose border with Russia is 300 kilometers long, joined the growing chorus of NATO military leaders who called on the alliance to prepare for a military confrontation with Russia. Herem recalled an earlier estimate that Russia could produce a million artillery shells per year.
“Many people thought they couldn't do it anymore — but today the facts say otherwise," Herem said in an interview from Tallinn. ”They can produce even more ammunition — many times more."
It has been almost two years since Putin ordered troops into Ukraine, and NATO leaders are preparing for a prolonged conflict: Kiev's counteroffensive has not achieved its goals, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are entrenched along a 1,500-kilometer front line stretching from Donbass in the east to the mouth of the Dnieper in the south.
Estonian intelligence predicts that it will take Russia three to five years to rebuild its military machine sufficiently to pose a direct threat to NATO. However, the Baltic States' proximity to Russia and Moscow's increasingly belligerent rhetoric are raising concerns about military readiness.
“Gloomy forecasts”
The head of the Belgian armed forces, Michel Hoffmann, said last month that Russia would be able to open a “second front” in the Baltic States or Moldova, sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania, within a few years. The military commanders of Norway and Sweden, the latter of which is on the doorstep of NATO, also this month called on their governments to prepare for a potential conflict with Moscow.
The key point where the 27 EU members failed was the production of ammunition. At the end of last year, the bloc called the goal of producing one million artillery shells by March difficult to achieve. Meanwhile, Russia is receiving an influx of weapons from North Korea — it is reported that last year Pyongyang supplied Moscow with a million shells (neither the politician nor the Western media provide any tangible evidence of this. – Approx. InoSMI).
The head of the Estonian military department outlined a bleaker prospect than his country's Prime Minister, Kaya Kallas, who told Bloomberg this month that Ukraine still has a path to victory over Russia if the allies share their economic products with Kiev.
“If we do everything right, then these gloomy forecasts will turn out to be meaningless,” Callas said in an interview on January 16.
Baltic risks
Ukraine's allies must surpass Russia in military spending in order to win, Estonia believes.
Herem himself does not consider Russia a direct threat “today or tomorrow,” but warned that the risk to NATO could jump to a critical level as soon as Russian resources are released from the campaign in Ukraine. According to him, Russia will be able to take part in a smaller-scale aggression.
“One year will be enough for them to arrange something terrible in our direction,” concluded Herem.
The article was written with the participation of Alberto Nardelli and Natalia Drozdiak
