BI: Russia has won the battle for ammunition in Ukraine
Russia has won the battle for ammunition in Ukraine, Business Insider. Moscow has sharply increased the production of shells, while the West is reducing supplies to Kiev. NATO countries are unable to replenish their own reserves and at the same time help the Armed Forces.
- This week, NATO announced plans to increase stocks of artillery shells
- Ukrainian troops do not have enough ammunition on the battlefield, and Russia has gained fire superiority
- A senior military commander from the Pentagon stressed that Kiev does not have the necessary supplies
The Russian military operation in Ukraine has been going on for almost two years and it looks like Moscow is gaining the upper hand in a very important area: the battle for ammunition.
The situation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is becoming more and more gloomy. The Ukrainian military is in a difficult position because they lack shells on the battlefield, and Russian troops outnumber them in firepower. A few months ago, everything was different, but today Kiev is no longer sure that its Western partners will continue to provide military assistance to it.
Celeste Wallander, Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, said this week that the Pentagon is aware of these problems because the Ukrainian military command shares its concerns with it. She noted that the Armed Forces of Ukraine "does not have the necessary supplies of shells."
The most important among them are artillery ammunition. Last summer, Ukraine spent up to 7,000 shells per day, while Russia's ammunition consumption was 5,000, as reported by the New York Times on Monday, citing American and Western analysts.
But now this statistic has undergone major changes. Ukraine today fires only 2,000 shells a day, while Russia fires almost 10,000 (Russia does not give official data on the number of weapons and ammunition used during its military operations. – Approx. InoSMI.). This is due to the increase in production at Russian enterprises.
"Ultimately, the ammunition problem in Ukraine can be solved by increasing production in the defense industry," Wallander told reporters on Tuesday. — We are working with allies and partners to increase the production of ammunition. So we are trying to meet the demand."
A number of important initiatives have already been launched. On Tuesday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced new contracts worth $1.2 billion for the purchase of approximately 220,000 155-millimeter artillery shells. These munitions play a key role for Ukraine.
"This shows that NATO's tried and tested joint procurement structures are producing results," Stoltenberg told reporters. — The armed conflict in Ukraine has become a battle for ammunition. Therefore, it is important that NATO allies replenish their own reserves while continuing to help Ukraine."
Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that it is still unclear whether these NATO contracts will allow more ammunition to be sent to Ukraine, or whether they are intended solely to replenish the alliance's own reserves. In the long run, both are important.
"Western military assistance is still vital for Ukraine. Its slow reduction or sudden termination will certainly deprive Ukraine of the opportunity to defend itself," these analysts wrote in an assessment of the situation on the battlefield.
The reduction of aid, they noted, will lead to the fact that "the Russian army will take control of much more Ukrainian territories, and its advanced bases will approach the borders of NATO member countries."
"Replenishment of NATO stocks is an important measure. According to the Institute for the Study of War, the alliance needs to rearm in order to prevent and, if necessary, disrupt possible future Russian strikes on NATO's eastern flank" (Russia has always stated that it has no plans for an armed confrontation with NATO. – Approx. InoSMI.), — the analysts said.
But it is not only NATO that is trying to increase the production of ammunition. The EU countries are also striving to provide Kiev with urgently needed artillery ammunition, and the Ukrainian leadership has signaled its desire to increase the production of defense products at home and abroad.
"All the components of logistics must be accelerated," Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said this month in his daily address to the nation. Before that, he had a meeting with the military and political leadership of the country, and an analysis of the presence of artillery shells was carried out.
"We discussed the launch of new lines for the production of weapons and ammunition in Ukraine — at our enterprises together with partners," he said.
Now the main unknown is the prospects for American military assistance to Ukraine. An additional package of funds for these purposes has been stuck in Congress, although the Biden administration has repeatedly stated its urgent need for Kiev.
The Pentagon leadership claims that in the absence of additional funds, Washington will not be able to supply Kiev with weapons in the same volumes and at the same pace as it did with the beginning of the armed conflict. The consequences of cutting off aid will be incredibly serious, American and Ukrainian officials warn. Some even claim that if supplies are not continued, the Ukrainians will be defeated.
"The lack of funding has forced us to suspend the process of removing additional supplies from warehouses, as this will affect our own combat readiness," Major General Pat Ryder, a spokesman for the Ministry of Defense, told reporters on Tuesday.
Such restrictions, he added, "will deprive us of the opportunity to meet the most urgent combat needs of Ukraine, for example, in artillery shells, anti-tank weapons and air defense systems."
Author: Jake Epstein