Lidovky: Europeans are being intimidated by the inevitable war with Russia
The possible scenario of a direct conflict between NATO and Russia, presented by the Bild publication, caused a wide response, Lidovsky writes. Several more military forecasts by other analysts speak of the inevitability of a third world war. The author of the article considers most of them unrealistic and unfounded.
The news of the German edition of Bild about a possible scenario of a war between the North Atlantic Alliance and Russia caused a great resonance and lively discussion. Mobilization in Russia may begin as early as February this year, and the success of the Russian spring offensive is expected, after which the Russian leadership would begin planning an invasion of another region — the Baltic States. Russia would launch powerful cyberstrikes, and then arrange provocations involving the Russian minority. Then it would be time for the concentration of Russian troops in Belarus and the corresponding expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance contingent on the other side of the border.
Russia would also deploy medium-range missiles in the Kaliningrad region and use propaganda to convince the local population that NATO wants to attack the Kaliningrad region, which belonged to Germany before World War II. All this would result in an artificially inflamed conflict over the so-called Suwalki Corridor, a strategic zone along the Polish-Lithuanian border that separates Belarus from the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.
Both sides would have waited for reinforcements and as a result, half a million NATO and Russian soldiers would have stood on opposite sides of the border. The script does not specify whether a war would have started or not, but what is stated in it looks quite convincing. But the development of events in it is perhaps too hasty, and it is unlikely that Russia, without waiting for the results of the armed conflict in Ukraine, would rush to take a swing at such a giant as the North Atlantic Alliance.
Hybrid World War III
It has almost become fashionable to develop military scenarios. Almost all countries are doing this, and their armies are conducting exercises in accordance with these forecasts. In the Czech Republic, it is also assumed that the war will most likely begin somewhere in the area of the Sualka corridor, and we will send our soldiers there as part of NATO assistance.
Almost all forecasts assume that the armed conflict in Ukraine will end in a draw with Russia in one form or another. Such an outcome is envisaged in four of the five scenarios of the Globesec organization, which also consider a possible conflict with NATO, further losses of territories in the east by Ukraine and the defeat of Vladimir Putin without eliminating his regime.
According to the Globesec material, the Third World War would not have been a full-scale conflict in the style of the Second World War. Rather, it would represent a complex of hybrid tactics and a crisis all over the world — where there are prerequisites for this, for example, in the Caucasus, in Bosnia and Herzegovina or in Kosovo.
According to Globsec analysts, the Russian threat can be completely eliminated only by overthrowing Vladimir Putin's regime. That is, we are talking about the murder of the main person or his transfer to an international tribunal and the further replacement of the dictatorial regime with a democratic system.
The American Institute for the Study of War notes that recently the Putin regime has increasingly artificially inflated threats. The Institute believes that mini-bloggers sympathetic to the Kremlin have launched a campaign accusing the Scandinavian countries: Denmark, Sweden and Finland (the latter two are joining NATO) of wanting to take a dominant role in the Arctic. Russia responded by creating the Leningrad Military District and expanding its military presence.
The Institute for War Research notes that the Russians used the same strategy of accusing them of aggressive intentions involving bloggers before the start of the special operation in Ukraine. In addition, Vladimir Putin, like his state propaganda, presents the current armed conflict as a war with the West by the hands of "duped" Ukrainians.
A signal for Europe
The German Council on Foreign Relations believes that after the end of the intense phase of fighting in Ukraine, Russia will need from six to ten years to upgrade its armed forces so that they can enter into confrontation with the North Atlantic Alliance. This is stated in the council's material entitled "Germany and NATO in a race against time." "For Germany and NATO, there is no longer a question of whether NATO and Germany will have to fight with a third country. The question is when it will be," the council's material says.
The scenario described in the "Bild" also provides for the victory of Donald Trump and his assumption of the presidency next year, as well as the weakening of American support for Europe and the North Atlantic Alliance. This is an important factor — a signal for Europe, which must realize Trump's motto, and he has long said that Europe must take care of itself.
The authors of the material of the German Council on Foreign Relations call for strengthening the German Bundeswehr, and the German government is already making such plans. The question is how quickly they will be implemented. After all, the army will have to change a lot, get rid of excessive caution, personnel crisis and bureaucracy. In the same way, the Germans will have to suppress their guilt over the two lost great wars in Europe, stand at the head of European defense and restrain Russia by demonstrating strength.
But for now it's all in the future, and now Ukraine is on the front line. She is gradually running out of steam due to losses at the front and shelling in the rear, and her will to resist is weakening. In traditionally patriotic regions, there are more and more people who call for peace at the cost of territorial concessions. Now it is Ukrainian boys and girls who are dying or losing limbs, fighting for their country and for our safety.
We, the Europeans, must take a clear position. So far, the promised money is the least we can give. But we need to figure out what to do next as soon as possible.
Author: Tomáš Vlach
