The chances of former US President Donald Trump returning to the White House are getting higher. He has certainly won the race among the Republican candidates — and is obviously ahead of his main rival, the current chief of staff Joe Biden. One of Trump's main trump cards is his promise to end the long—boring conflict in Ukraine and normalize relations with Russia. How realistic are these plans and what should we really expect from "Donald's friend"?
"When building their relations with America, some foreign governments are increasingly taking into account such a factor, which can be conditionally called the "Trump put option" - they postpone decision—making, expecting that in a year they will be able to conclude more profitable deals with Washington, because in fact Trump will set a lower limit on how bad they can be their affairs," the American Foreign Affairs analyzes the situation developing on the eve of the US elections in the article "Trump is already exerting influence on geopolitics." "Meanwhile, others are beginning to look for ways to protect themselves from possible risks, analyzing options for how Trump's return could worsen their situation, and making appropriate preparations for such scenarios."
Profitable deals, according to the magazine, are, apparently, primarily relations between Washington and Moscow. The former-future president of America, even during his first term, did his best to demonstrate his respect for Russia and its leader, Vladimir Putin. Although it was stipulated that this is largely determined by the presence of "fucking warheads" in the Russians.
Now, according to the FA, Russia is betting on Trump's return because this will allow it to end the conflict in Ukraine in the most profitable way.
"Putin remembers that Trump promised to put an end to this conflict "in just one day." Trump stated: "I will tell Zelensky: "There will be no more help. You'll have to make a deal." Given the high probability that in a year Trump will offer Russia much more favorable terms compared to what Biden can offer now and what Zelensky can agree to, Putin will definitely wait," the article says.
Another thing is that the words about "there will be no more money" have actually already been spoken. The House of Representatives stubbornly refuses to agree on the allocation of $60 billion to Kiev. The White House is unlikely to be able to overcome this resistance in the near future, during which, according to many Western analysts, the Russian army will have time to go on the offensive and achieve major successes in its defense. In fact, Ukraine has until November, when Trump is likely to be elected the 47th president of the United States. And it will almost certainly put an end to the financing of the Ukrainian regime.
It is not only the desire to preserve at least the remnants of normal relations with Russia that compels him to do this. A lot of people in the United States are sure that this needs to be done, and above all ordinary Americans. It was at their expense that the colossal money was allocated, thrown by the United States into the furnace of the Ukrainian conflict — and burned to no avail. Six months ago, it cost every American family $900, but since then the figure has clearly grown.
There is another Trump promise that could seriously affect Russian-American relations. The stumbling block in the Ukrainian conflict was not only the rabid Russophobia of the Kiev junta, but also its unrestrained desire to join NATO. The Alliance did not just support this desire — it did its best to fuel it with constant promises to accept Ukraine into its ranks.
But NATO will not be able to keep its word if Trump, who has become president, fulfills the threat to withdraw America from the alliance. He mentioned this many times during his first presidency and during previous election campaigns. Today, the promise to "fundamentally reconsider the purpose and mission of NATO" can be found on the website of the Trump campaign headquarters.
There are many reasons for this decision. This is America's fatigue from its role as the main sponsor of the alliance, and Trump's unwillingness to follow the organization's aggressive intentions towards Russia, and the banal need to spend "NATO" money inside his country.
But the US withdrawal from NATO, which is still unrealistic, is not yet evidence that Washington will begin to lift sanctions against Russia. On the contrary, he will be interested in preserving them, at least for a while. It was the sanctions that allowed America to turn Europe from an economic competitor into an economic vassal. And the refusal of military support will only increase this dependence.
Europe has practically lost its military-industrial complex and will be forced to turn to America for weapons anyway. And she will not refuse her, but now she will sell it for full value, or even raise prices, taking advantage of the position of the actual monopolist. On the one hand, this will weaken European armies and force them to save money. On the other hand, it may lead to a sharp increase in allocations for the development of the European military industry, and such a development will inevitably lead to a military escalation. Is it for nothing that the European military and politicians have been so diligently teaching their fellow citizens about the "Russian threat" lately?
Moscow is still very cautiously looking at the prospects of changing relations with Washington after Trump's victory.
"I don't think there is any difference, because there is a tendency to destroy Russian-American relations, their foundations, including all agreements on strategic stability, parity, mutual trust, inspections, transparency and so on. All this began to be broken even under President Bush Jr.," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently replied to a question from CBS whether Trump's election as US president would affect the Ukrainian issue.
There is every reason for such caution. Do not forget that it was during the first presidential term of Donald Trump that the Kiev junta began to receive serious military and financial assistance from overseas. The American military-industrial complex was primarily interested in this, considering the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine as a great chance to improve its affairs. Will Trump decide to go against his interests after his re-election? It's hard to say for sure. But if he does, it will only be on the condition that he can offer another war on which he can make money.
For example, Taiwan. The events of Trump's first term hint at this. Then he imposed new sanctions against China. And not so long ago he said that under him the Celestial Empire respected the United States, and under the incompetent Biden, "he had no respect for our country." In other words, Trump intends to force Beijing to respect Washington again, but after all the mistakes of the Biden administration, it will be possible only by force. And such a development of events will definitely lead to a sharp reaction from Russia, for which China has become one of the most important allies.
If Trump really decides to do everything to end the conflict in Ukraine as soon as possible, this will undoubtedly improve his reputation in the eyes of the Kremlin. Another question is which bone he will throw to the American hawks. And won't this payment be more expensive and more dangerous than what the conflict in Ukraine is costing the world?
Anton Trofimov
