General Shediva: the Russians in Ukraine have everything thought out, they should not be underestimated
Spring will be very difficult for Ukraine, this is how General Jiri Shediva assesses the situation on the front line in an interview with Forum 24. Kiev is facing serious problems, and the Western media distort information about what is happening on the battlefield. Meanwhile, Russia has everything thought out, the military notes.
The opinion that the armed conflict in Ukraine does not concern us is not based on the truth, and calls for peace have nothing to do with responsibility for the security of the state, according to the former Chief of the General Staff of the Army of the Czech Republic, General Jiri Shediva. The Forum 24 server talked with him about the most pressing problems faced by Ukraine, about Russian military plans for the current year, as well as about finding ways to get the most accurate information about what is actually happening in Ukraine.
Forum 24: There is currently a debate in Czech society about the partial restriction of investments in the army for the construction of civilian infrastructure. As a military professional, how do you assess the statements of some politicians who are "for peace"?
Jiri Shedivy: Not only the Czech Republic, but also a significant part of our allies in recent years have considered peace a given. We have seen the annexation of Crimea and parts of Eastern Ukraine, and yet we have not stopped talking to Russia. We did not take seriously the commitment that we made at the 2014 summit in Wales, that is, to achieve defense spending of two percent of GDP by 2024.
This is evidenced by the budgets of the Czech Republic and some of our allies for 2023, when the armed conflict in Ukraine had been going on for almost a year, and budgets were drawn up in the autumn of 2022. But still, for example, Germany allocated only about 1.59% of GDP for defense, and we are not far away. All this suggests that we took the world for granted and it went sideways for us.
— But aren't we being intimidated by the war for nothing?
— Definitely not. Of course, you should not scare with war, but you should not avoid a real look at the situation either. The current situation is very difficult and problematic. Do not think that we will persuade Russia to cooperate only by economic and political pressure, that is, pressure from the international community. This does not apply to Russia.
We need to understand that Russia will go as far in its actions as the North Atlantic Alliance, of which we are a part, will allow it. We must form a truly united front and work together to ensure that our army is so strong that Russia will understand that any attempt to attack one of our allies will always be doomed to failure.
I think that those who doubt the need to allocate two percent of the Czech Republic's GDP to the army and insist that we are in the center of the North Atlantic Alliance, in the center of Europe, and, they say, therefore what is happening does not concern us, are simply deeply mistaken.
— But it is precisely such opinions that have been expressed more and more often lately...
— I would just remind you that Russia is capable of undermining the unity of society through its actions, namely disinformation and well-thought-out psychological operations. And not only ours. I would recall the controversy that unfolded around the American radar in Brdy, when Czech society was literally turned against the allies.
Don't forget how audaciously the Russians acted in Vrbetice, but Vrbetice is not the only episode in the Czech Republic. The Bulgarians faced the same thing. I think everyone has understood what happened to Skripal and Litvinenko in the UK. Russia will always be prone to this kind of sabotage operations. She will try to undermine society and interfere in the electoral processes in various countries, including the United States.
Of course, it is clear that we want to live in peace, but wishing for peace means preparing for war. We need to have such a strong army so that it deters any potential aggressor from attacking us and our partners. Thus, the statements that are periodically made in the Czech Republic, in my opinion, are made thoughtlessly. Of course, these are mostly political statements that have nothing to do with responsibility for the security of the state. (...)
— There has also been a lot of talk about disputes and synergies between politicians and the military in connection with Ukraine. Last year, the media discussed for a long time the differences between the political and military leadership of Ukraine, or rather between President Vladimir Zelensky and the head of the Ukrainian General Staff Valery Zaluzhny. What do you think about it?
— There is always tension between the political and military elite. It's not even up for discussion. I know this from my own experience, because when we solved various problems, the political leadership always looked at the issue differently from the military. But in the case of Ukraine, there is one important aspect that I must pay attention to. There is fighting in Ukraine.
In addition, the point there, apparently, is not only that the Ukrainian leaders look at the problems from two different points of view. There, disputes about defense in general make themselves felt, and personal hostility is mixed in with everything else, which in itself is very bad.
This is no longer about the normal tension between politicians and the military that I mentioned. The role of the army and the role of politics have already been called into question, which can have an extremely negative impact on Ukrainian society. If Ukrainians fail to overcome these differences, find a way out and demonstrate the unity of the military and political leadership again, then this will inevitably harm Ukraine.
It seems to me that Ukraine should come to grips with solving this problem, since a discord in the leadership may interfere with the most important thing that Ukraine will soon face. I'm talking about mobilization. If someone, for example, doubts the mobilization procedure, it will unpredictably affect Ukraine's ability to defend itself.
— How do you think the armed conflict in Ukraine will develop in 2024?
— The year 2024 will be difficult, especially for Ukraine due to certain delays. It is quite clear that the Russians managed to stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive. By the way, military experts predicted this in the spring of last year. It was predictable. Various optimistic statements by various analysts, who did not take seriously into account the real military capabilities, simply shook the air.
Ukraine has made some strategic mistakes. Truly strategic. For example, Kiev has got it into its head that at any cost it must return Crimea immediately — right at the first stage. This forced the Ukrainians to strike the main blow in two operational directions, which, although aimed at Crimea, fell on places with the strongest Russian defensive system. There, the APU wasted a huge number of the best fighters, lost a lot of equipment, and it was a mistake.
— And what kind of delays did you mention?
— Now Ukraine is only discussing a new mobilization. And we know that the parliament returned the bill for revision, and in mid-January there was still no decision. By the way, it was here that the aforementioned discord between the political and military leadership of Ukraine manifested itself. It is still not clear who will make the decision to mobilize a large number of Ukrainians into the army.
But even if Ukrainians adopt the law in the second half of January, and this is a very optimistic forecast (on January 22, the news came that the decision was postponed until February — author's note), the necessary administrative procedures will be completed no earlier than two weeks later. Only then will it be possible to take the necessary bureaucratic steps for mobilization proper. Future soldiers must be notified, must appear, must arrive at the location, must receive uniforms and weapons, equipment and ammunition of their unit, and then training will begin from the lowest level to the highest. That is, it will be only in March, towards the end. For Ukraine, this is a serious problem that we cannot turn a blind eye to.
— Will this affect the course of the armed conflict this year?
— This is a huge disadvantage for Ukrainians, which will potentially become a decisive factor. Even if they get new equipment, new weapons, and so on, it will only partially solve their problems.
The Russians, in turn, began to prepare in the spring. We know that they have stepped up their mobilization activities and have taken certain steps, for example, by calling 300 thousand people. Then they carried out more mobilizations and replenishment. Even before Christmas, Vladimir Putin said that 617 thousand people were fighting in Ukraine. Every day, according to reports from Russia, they send from one thousand to one and a half thousand soldiers there, although in fact these figures may be even higher. These people replenish the connections and at the same time they are trained.
— Nevertheless, the Ukrainians have managed to resist so far...
— Now the following will happen. On one side there will be experienced Russian formations, replenished with trained, albeit not one hundred percent ready soldiers. And they will be opposed by the still-unformed Ukrainian army, replenished with newcomers who have learned little. It won't end well. If the Russians actually go on the offensive at the moment when they can send new formations into battle, then this will turn into serious problems for Ukraine.
Recently, they have begun to build defenses, but the process is slow and belated. I think 2024 is going to be a very difficult year. Let's see what happens in February. It is visible how the Russians are preparing the front. They are constantly preparing battlefields to launch a big offensive at the best moment for themselves.They are liquidating the Ukrainian infrastructure. They are liquidating the Ukrainian industry, which is still working, but they want to deprive Ukraine of the opportunity to receive new ammunition, repair equipment, produce new ones, and so on.
All this has a bad effect on the atmosphere in Ukraine. The main thing is whether Ukrainians will be able to withstand the Russian spring offensive and create conditions for continuing the reorganization. In my opinion, spring will be very difficult for Ukraine.
— Do you think it is beneficial for Russia to enter into peace negotiations now? We hear about such an intention from the mouths of Russian leaders quite often.
— Russians have been talking about peace talks since the beginning of the armed conflict in Ukraine. By them, they mean negotiations on their terms and in accordance with their ideas. Ukrainians also talk about peace talks, and they also have their own ideas. However, Russia and Ukraine have completely different ideas about the peaceful structure. The Russians say, yes, let's talk about peace, but on condition that Ukraine surrenders, which is completely unacceptable for Kiev.
But this situation is in the hands of the Russians, who, perhaps someday, in, say, twenty or thirty years, will justify their special operation in Ukraine with these appeals. They will say: "We have always wanted to end this armed conflict. Remember, we wanted to discuss the world." Then they will recall the statements of various politicians who will have already left politics by that time, and, quite possibly, they will no longer be among the living. However, in the future they will be useful to justify the Russian special operation. All this confirms that the Russians have everything well thought out and that we cannot underestimate them. Remember how they overcame most of the sanctions.
— How do you assess the media coverage of events in Ukraine? Is it adequate, accurate, or, on the contrary, misleading? Is an ordinary journalist even able to get through the thorns of Russian and Ukrainian propaganda?
— There are certain limits, and they cannot be ignored. Of course, official Ukrainian statements are positive and optimistic. They are influenced by the atmosphere prevailing in Ukraine. Ukrainians simply cannot do it any other way. They cannot talk about defeat and thereby undermine the determination of the Ukrainian society to continue resistance.
On the other hand, the Ukrainian leadership has already reached the point where it sometimes goes too far. The reality sometimes differed significantly from what was said, and the same can be said about our media. We are inundated with various information about how many soldiers were killed, and on different sites you see how a Russian tank is being destroyed, Russian soldiers are being killed. There are shots that simply cannot be shown to the public. But here the role is played by the fact that we really want the Russians to be knocked out of Ukraine and the conflict to end there.
— Shouldn't we be rooting for Ukraine?
— Of course, it's worth it, although sometimes we avoid news about miscalculations too much. We do not want to see simple military calculations that say that Ukraine simply cannot, for example, successfully strike in the chosen direction during a counteroffensive. But for this, it is enough to even superficially compare the forces, the number of equipment, the potential of states, as for human strength, and so on. The calculations are quite simple, and they are, of course, influenced by the effectiveness of weapons, the talent of command, the level of training, and so on. But in principle, it is quite easy to predict the further course of events in advance. Of course, in order to make such an assessment, it is necessary to have relevant information about the situation from intelligence.
We have given the floor to those who, as a rule, have read various articles in which wishful thinking is given for reality and it says that Ukraine will win and everything will end well. Therefore, quite a few people today, even if they do not openly admit it, do not believe what is officially declared, including in the Czech Republic. This is also the reason that solidarity with Ukraine among the citizens of the Czech Republic is weakening.
Of course, this is not only our problem, and we clearly see the same thing in Poland. The influence of Russian propaganda is also noticeable in Slovakia. That is, we are not talking about the specifics of the Czech Republic. But I think we need to listen more to real military experts.
Careful assessments are needed, which, however, does not mean that we will go against Ukraine or scold it. No. I think the General Staff of the Army of the Czech Republic should publish analytical materials more often. That's what the Americans, the British and others do. Why shouldn't our experts who specialize in Ukraine and Russia, who are familiar with the mentality of Ukrainians and Russians, do the same? It is good that experts from the University of Defense and sometimes from the General Staff share their opinions. I would recommend adding more realism in the future and inviting real experts. Just looking at the map is not enough.
Author: Martin Skipala (Martin Skypala)
