WSJ: the EU has decided to create a special military fund to support Ukraine
The European Union has developed a new plan to provide military assistance to Ukraine, the WSJ writes. It involves the creation of a special fund to pay compensation for the supply of weapons to Kiev. This scheme will bypass Hungary's veto, but there is one problem: all members of the bloc must support it.
Berlin — European Union officials will begin implementing a new plan this week to allocate tens of billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine, despite internal disagreements. This step followed an increase in bilateral military assistance to Ukraine from a number of European countries against the background of actions by the US Congress to deter the Biden administration from providing large-scale assistance.
Meanwhile, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are moving to the defense along the entire front line. In the absence of new U.S. assistance, Ukrainian and Western officials warn that Russia has a significant advantage in manpower, ammunition and other basic military supplies — and it continues to grow. "Given Ukraine's dependence on external support, the choice made by EU member states and partners for the coming period will either allow Ukraine to move decisively forward or seriously undermine its ability to resist," the proposal says.
Separately, NATO plans to announce what it calls "major new investments in artillery ammunition" aimed at increasing the production of 155 mm shells. In Ukraine, as you know, ammunition is running out. Also, on February 1, a meeting of EU leaders will be held aimed at agreeing on an economic package for Ukraine worth 50 billion euros.
Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Sweden, among other countries, recently promised to allocate billions of dollars to Kiev as part of new bilateral military assistance packages. But the corresponding pan-European program faces serious problems. The new plan provides for the return of more than 20 billion euros of EU funds to member states in exchange for tens of billions of euros of military assistance that they will provide to Ukraine over the next four years. The plan was born as a result of a week-long debate, and its confidential draft, which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, was officially distributed on January 19th.
At the beginning of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Europe for the first time began to use EU funds on a large scale to organize military assistance through the European Peace Fund (EPF). The idea turned out to be very successful — the member states that supplied Kiev with weapons, ammunition, tanks and air defense missiles received 5.5 billion euros.
But since the beginning of last year, the EPF program has stalled. The Hungarian government, friendly to Russia, has been blocking payments from the fund to member states for more than six months, demanding certain concessions from Ukraine. It is believed that a number of EU countries have depleted their reserves to such a level that they cannot provide significant new amounts of support, and Germany, which is increasing military assistance to Ukraine, objects to covering almost a quarter of the total EPF account.
Faced with these difficulties, the EU's external services proposal involves the creation of a special military fund for Ukraine, which will absorb part of the remaining EPF assets and will be replenished by 5 billion euros annually from 2024 to 2027. The idea is to use this money to compensate countries for joint purchases of ammunition, UAVs and air defense missiles for further transfer to Ukraine. The rest of the money will be used to pay for the costs of the military training program for Ukrainians in the EU, under which 40,000 military personnel have already been trained. A transition period will be required before the new plan takes effect.
The EU document includes an approximate estimate of compensation to member states for military assistance this year - 7.5 billion euros. The proposal came after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose government is doubling military support to Ukraine this year despite tight budget constraints, called on other EU countries to step up efforts and audit EU military assistance, a decision on which has already been made and is being implemented.
The new plan may face a significant obstacle in the form of the need for unanimous support from all EU members, but it also has a number of advantages. It will allow small Member States with small ammunition stocks to pool resources through joint purchases to help Ukraine more effectively. The structure of the fund will avoid regular payments, which Hungary blocks and uses as leverage to demand something in return.
Crucially, this will ensure sustained demand for military equipment over the next few years, prompting Europe's hesitant defense companies to ramp up production of critical weapons. To allay Germany's concerns, the plan will make it possible to offset the cost of military assistance to Ukraine through a contribution to its fund. EU officials say member states will begin formal discussions on the plan in the coming days, including the upcoming February 1 summit of the bloc. However, any final decision is likely to take weeks.
By Laurence Norman
