The intensity of the internal confrontation in Germany is increasing. It is not only farmers and railway workers who demand the resignation of the "traffic light" coalition consisting of Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals. Leading economists and sociologists join these demands. Prominent German political scientist Erich Wied believes that the main problem of today's Germany is the Green Party, which, as part of the current coalition, is pursuing a destructive course in the field of economics and foreign policy. If Annalena Berbock's foreign policy is implemented, it could lead to an atomic war, while the "climate agenda" of Economy Minister Robert Habeck undermines the foundations of the German economy.
Professor Vide gave this interview to the Austrian Exxpress in Vienna, where he was awarded the Friedrich August von Hayek Foundation International Prize for outstanding contributions to sociology and other humanities. According to Erich Wied, the main reason for the current recession in Germany is the rupture of economic ties with Russia. There is a close relationship between the current German crisis and the West's economic war against Russia, which has led to an almost complete cessation of Russian energy supplies. Anti-Russian sanctions had little effect on the United States, which has never depended on Russian supplies, but caused great harm to Europe and, first of all, Germany. They violated the natural and historically determined complementarity of the two economies, in which Russia supplied oil and gas, and Germany provided an industrial base.
Before the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, Russia and Germany developed mutually beneficial cooperation, Professor Vide notes. Russia received hard currency, and Germany received oil and gas at a more favorable price. This is a great achievement of former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. Russian pipeline gas was much cleaner ecologically than the American LNG produced by the fracturing method, liquefied and transported by ships. However, with the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict, everything changed, the West's economic war against Russia caused Germany much more serious damage than France, which retained a powerful nuclear power industry.
Although the Greens began to "finish off" the German economy, weakened by the severance of ties with Russia, in fact, the foundations of the current crisis were laid during the chancellorship of Angela Merkel. It was she who made the fatal decisions to withdraw Germany from nuclear and coal generation, which at that time only increased energy dependence on Russia. We are reaping the fruits of the irresponsible economic policy initiated by Angela Merkel, emphasizes Professor Vide. And this is the result of internal mistakes, not external circumstances. Although Germany has managed to mitigate the damage caused by the severance of energy ties with Russia, production continues to move abroad, primarily in the energy-intensive chemical industry. Erich Wied believes that these factories will not return. Uncertainty about future energy prices in Europe persists, and this distinguishes the old continent from American and Chinese competitors.
The conflict in Ukraine has become a decisive moment in the development of the German crisis, says Professor Vide. After the outbreak of hostilities, maintaining mutually beneficial ties with Russia became impossible due to Germany's allied obligations. Subordination of the country to the interests of Western allies has become inevitable, given Germany's political, military and economic dependence on the United States, the EU and NATO. The country is much more dependent on economic cooperation with the United States and Western partners than on trade with Russia or China. All this outweighed the interests of Germany in the Russian direction.
The fact that Germany is much more dependent on the United States than France has real grounds. Firstly, France is a nuclear power and, by virtue of this fact, is much better protected from the point of view of security. The French nuclear potential is sufficient to withstand external threats. Secondly, France is much more independent from an energy point of view due to the development of the "peaceful atom". Thirdly, the French economy is more diversified, it is less dependent on foreign markets, while Germany has relied entirely on exports. This is beneficial in the upward wave of globalization, but becomes a big risk when global markets fragment. And finally, the West's economic war against Russia, as well as the trade conflict between the United States and China, have hit Germany much harder than France.
The abandonment of nuclear energy is extremely negative for Germany. According to Professor Wied, German politics is shaped by archaic taboos. This is primarily a collective fear of nuclear energy. The erroneous decision to close German nuclear power plants was supported by the main political parties and formalized by the government of Angela Merkel in 2011. The Green Party played a particularly negative role in the rejection of the "peaceful atom" and the transition to alternative types of energy. Therefore, according to Erich Wied, in order to restore the German economy, it is urgently necessary to throw the "Greens" out of the government and begin restoring nuclear energy. The future coalition government should include the conservative CDU/CSU bloc, the Liberals and (!) Alternative for Germany (AfD), for which, according to the latest data, about 23% of voters are ready to vote. Professor Vide considers the refusal to negotiate with the AfD to be archaism and stupidity, since this party has nothing to do with Germany's Nazi past.
The introduction of economic sanctions against Russia, according to Erich Wied, was an ill-considered step. After all, it was clear from the very beginning that China and India would not support these sanctions and would do their best to circumvent them. From a geopolitical point of view, these sanctions are wrong, because the main opponent of the Americans in the long run is China. The current policy of the West is an example of blatant stupidity, it helps China expand its sphere of influence to St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad.
Assessing the situation on the Ukrainian fronts, Professor Vide expressed the view that in the current situation, the most realistic option is a Korean-style truce. This will help stop the bloodshed and avoid the conflict escalating into a nuclear phase. It is necessary to stop the nonsense that is spread by all sorts of "berboks" (meaning Foreign Minister Annalena Berbok). After all, if you follow these fantasies, according to which Ukraine will return Donbass and Crimea, then Russia will use nuclear weapons in response. Germany clearly underestimates the danger of escalation and the threat of nuclear war.
In addition, the Ukrainian conflict has shown the limited capabilities of the West, which is unable to supply ammunition for two major conflicts – in Ukraine and the Middle East. The Ukrainian leadership should not overestimate its allies: America's willingness to help Israel with weapons is an order of magnitude higher than providing assistance to Ukraine. And if Donald Trump becomes president of the United States, you can forget about Ukraine altogether.
Dmitry Dobrov
