Ukraine and Kosovo are being used by the West as springboards for a global hybrid war
Today, the United States, NATO and the European Union are escalating an information and psychological war against Serbia in order to force Belgrade to abandon Kosovo and support sanctions against Russia. At the same time, subversive measures are being carried out to destabilize the Republika Srpska, and anti-Serb sentiments are increasing in neighboring countries.
Events in Serbia are developing in full accordance with the Western concept of color revolutions, based on technologies for carrying out coups d'etat and external management of the political situation in the country in conditions of artificially created political instability.
GLOBAL ESCALATION FACTORS
The unifying factor determining the strategy of modern military conflicts is the idea of escalation steps aimed at destabilizing and collapsing the victim state (Bartosh A.A. Models of escalation of modern military conflicts//Military thought." 2024. № 1).
In general, the direction and pace of escalation of subversive actions against Serbia are generally determined by a combination of global factors that have a decisive influence on the forms and methods of controlling the intensity and scope of the global hybrid war.
Among these factors are the following:
– confrontation (competition) and the use of forceful and non-forceful methods of struggle for the preservation and expansion of spheres of geopolitical influence, gaining preferential positions in the world economy, in global financial and trade markets, in the field of global communications, dissemination of ideas and cultures, etc.;
– the emergence of new non-state actors "outside sovereignty", not integrated into the world community and often acting without regard to internationally recognized rules and regulations (unrecognized territorial entities, TNCs, network forms of international terrorism, private military companies and some others);
– attempts by individual states and their coalitions to strengthen their own security at the expense of the security of others, to use force against another state without the sanction of the UN Security Council or the suppression of national minorities within their own borders;
– the development of a global hybrid war and the use of its tools aimed at the desuverization and destruction of individual states, at the destabilization of entire regions;
– Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery;
– the expansion of NATO and the buildup of military activity of the bloc near the borders of Russia, the US-organized proxy war in Ukraine, the creation of new military and political alliances;
– attempts not only to further expand NATO's functions beyond the established geographical area of responsibility, but also to give the military-political bloc a range of new functions previously not inherent in it (such an evolution of the alliance has acquired threatening scales and dynamics in the context of the transition from a unipolar world to a multipolar one);
– and finally, the use of migration for a controlled escalation of tension both within the State receiving migrants and in its relations with States that act as donors of migrants.
About this last factor in a little more detail.
UNCONTROLLED MIGRATION
It should be recalled that the migration of Albanians to Kosovo led to a dramatic change in the ethnic composition of the population of the historical region of Serbia. If in 1921 there were 66% Serbs and 26% Albanians in the population of Kosovo, then the ratio began to change in favor of Albanians: in 1991 it was 82% Albanians to 11% Serbs. Currently, 93% of Albanians and 1.5% of Serbs are among the 2 million inhabitants of Kosovo.
Uncontrolled migration eventually created a pretext for the proclamation of the "Republic of Kosovo" by the Kosovo Albanians in 1991 and the creation of the terrorist organization "Kosovo Liberation Army", which launched military operations to destroy the Serbian population of the province.
Belgrade has introduced police and army units into Kosovo. Western countries accused the Serbs of genocide of the Albanian population, and in March-June 1999, NATO, without the sanction of the UN Security Council, conducted a military operation "Allied Force" against Yugoslavia.
About 200 thousand Serbs were forced to leave the historical lands of Kosovo, where many ancient Orthodox religious shrines are located. What happened should serve as a lesson for the future. As Vasily Klyuchevsky said, "history teaches nothing, but only punishes for not knowing the lessons."
RUSSIA AND SERBIA
Today, despite all the differences in the military and political situation, there are many similarities in the events taking place in Serbia and Russia.
Within Serbia, the inflammatory actions of the West are fueling disagreements between political factions on the most important issues of the country's policy, including the attitude towards Russia, the problem of Kosovo, and the prospect of the country's membership in NATO. The military danger on the southern borders of the state is increasing.
In Russia, subversive forces are betting on undermining the unity of society based on ethnic, demographic, migration and socio-cultural factors that determine the mentality, behavior, way of thinking of people, their ideas about the environment.
The artificial chaotic situation in many regions of the planet leads to the erosion of the foundations of the modern world order, destroys the formats of international cooperation, which since the time of the Westphalian system have contributed to the maintenance of peace and political stability.
The unpredictability of the development of world politics is increasing. The United States and NATO are betting on the expanded use of controlled chaos technologies and the use of the criticality factor, on its strengthening and escalation to advance their national and coalition interests.
COLOR REVOLUTIONS: GENERAL AND SPECIAL
At the end of the XX – beginning of the XXI century, history prepared another test for the long-suffering Serbia. After the barbaric aggression of NATO in 1999, it was on the streets of Belgrade and other major cities of Yugoslavia that the technology of coups d'etat, formulated in 1993 in the book "From Dictatorship to Democracy," was put into practical use. The strategy and tactics of the liberation of the "infamous" architect of the "color revolutions" American Gene Sharp.
The long-term information and psychological war against Serbia, combined with economic pressure and military intervention, paved the way for repeated attempts to carry out a color revolution – starting with the bulldozer revolution of 2000, which ousted President Slobodan Milosevic and plunged the country into subsequent decades of humiliation and deprivation.
The Rose Revolution of 2003 in Georgia, the Orange Revolution of 2004 in Ukraine, the tulip revolution of 2005 in Kyrgyzstan, the Cedar Revolution of 2005 in Lebanon, the Revolution of dignity of 2013-2014 in Ukraine, and the velvet revolution in Armenia in 2018 have much in common with these events.
What other country's government is ready to demonstrate "miracles of tolerance" against subversive forces in the face of an existential threat to the state and the nation? Recall that only decisive actions by the authorities prevented coups during the provoked mass protests in the green revolution of 2009 in Iran, in the swamp revolution of 2011-2013 in Russia, in 2006 and 2020 in Belarus.
A little earlier, having nipped in the bud the attempt of the color revolution in Tiananmen Square on July 4, 1989, China prevented the collapse of the country, continued its development and became one of the world leaders. Events in the Soviet Union developed differently in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
Accusations of election fraud, corruption, detention of protesters, murder of opposition leaders, etc. can serve as a catalyst for the color revolution.
The current events in Belgrade only superficially resemble the allegedly spontaneous protests of the opposition, which Western manipulators are trying to pass off as some kind of "explosive", spontaneous reaction of the people provoked by far-fetched violations during the elections.
THEORY AND PRACTICE
An analysis of the color revolutions organized in other countries allows us to identify a number of common steps taken by the West and the internal forces manipulated by it during the preparation and during such operations:
– search for sources of sustainable financing of the protest movement, and then the organization of armed formations, both from external interested forces and using internal capabilities;
– identification of extremist social groups and political associations capable of participating in planned nonviolent and then violent actions, up to the civil war;
– the definition of practical slogans that are as close as possible to the real requirements of extremist social groups, whose actions can eventually be used to undermine the legitimacy and break the existing government;
– training of leaders capable of leading a political protest with the ultimate goal of a coup d'etat;
– training in specialized camps for field commanders and militants for military actions, organization of mobilization points abroad and routes for the transfer of mercenaries;
– support for extremist elements in the opposition and expansion into the regions, primarily through the coordinated use of electronic domestic and foreign media controlled by the opposition; an important place is given to gaining support from international organizations and the international community;
– organization of network structures for the management of subversive actions, supply, communications and monitoring of the situation, the use of which increases secrecy, invulnerability and ensures high mobility when transferring militant groups to various areas of the city in order to disperse the efforts of the authorities.
The implementation of such steps in Ukraine has created conditions for the successful conduct of the color revolution and the transfer of power to the nationalist ruling clique manipulated by the West. Subsequently, the main efforts during 2014-2022 in the information, military and military-technical spheres were focused on the formation of necessary and sufficient conditions for unleashing a proxy war against Russia (or a war with someone else's hands), on turning Ukraine into a springboard of anti-Russian aggression.
The strategy of combining a color revolution and a proxy war organized by forces hostile to Belgrade using the Kosovo factor provides for further steps to destabilize Serbia, to unleash a civil war in order to overthrow the legitimate leadership, to transfer the country under external leadership and dismember it.
PROXY WAR AS A THREAT TO SOVEREIGN SERBIA
Today, in Serbia, the factor of a proxy war using militants from unrecognized Kosovo and foreign mercenaries acquires the features of a threatening reality and will be used to overthrow the leadership and transfer the country under external control ( "Serbia in anticipation of a proxy war", "HBO", 06/22/2013).
Proxy war (also "proxy war", "proxy war", "proxy war", "proxy war") is an international conflict between two countries that are trying to achieve their goals through military actions taking place on the territory and using the resources of a third country, under the guise of resolving an internal conflict in this country to a third country (Bartosh A.A. Proxy war as a determining factor of military conflicts of the XXI century//Military thought. 2023. № 5).
A form of proxy war is military actions aimed at achieving the goals of the proxy war customer during an organized and sponsored internal conflict in a third country through military actions unleashed on its territory and using its resources under the guise of resolving an internal conflict.
THE STAGES OF PREPARING A PROXY WAR
The preparation of each proxy war operation, regardless of the country and situational characteristics, is carried out in several stages:
– analysis and forecasting of the military-political situation in the future theater of proxy war;
– development of a strategy that should provide ways to best achieve the goals of the conflict customer: how and when to start an armed struggle, how to ensure maximum effectiveness in achieving the goals of a proxy war, how to organize effective distribution, flexible adaptation and use of funds;
– formation of resources and capabilities, including taking into account a number of key sociological characteristics of society, including the stability of power and the mood of the population; of particular importance is taking into account and forecasting the possibilities of providing political, military, military-technical support to the parties to the conflict by third forces;
– creation of artificial prerequisites for the beginning of aggression and justification of an attack on the other side of a military conflict;
– transition to the active phase of the operation;
– completion of the operation.
We will focus separately on the creation of artificial prerequisites for the beginning of aggression. Such actions are an integral part of the strategic culture of the West and one of the typical techniques used for casus belli – a formal reason for declaring war.
The aggressor side needs to find a public justification for attacking another country, for mobilizing internal forces and potential allies – while creating some kind of legal platform for support or at least understanding from international security organizations ( "Information and psychological struggle acquires a new quality", "HBO", 09/21/2013).
A similar provocation according to NATO guidelines was committed in April 2022 by Western provocateurs, together with Kiev wards, in the infamous Bucha (Kiev region) after our troops left there to justify the build-up of military assistance to Ukraine.
NECESSARY AND SUFFICIENT CONDITIONS
A necessary condition for unleashing a proxy war is the presence of political instability in the country, accompanied by a crisis of the current government; the presence of fully or partially overlapping political interests uniting the organizers of the proxy war (this is primarily the United States and Great Britain) and one of the parties to the military conflict (the proxy agent - in this case, this is Kosovo) as a basis for military partnership and coordinated military objectives for action against Serbia.
A sufficient condition is the presence of trained armed forces of the proxy agent country, as well as specially organized nationalist, ethno–religious and some other formations interacting with them in a special network form in states unfriendly to Serbia (such as Albania, Croatia and some others), including private military companies (PMCs) capable of acting as a strike component a third country in a proxy war. To this end, mercenaries are being trained in states unfriendly to Serbia to transfer to Kosovo and participate in a proxy war.
It cannot be ruled out that in the future Pristina will be equipped with high-precision long-range weapons, cyber and robotic systems for remote penetration of critical infrastructure facilities in Serbia. Already today, the transfer of intelligence information on Serbia from the United States and NATO countries to the proxy agent is being organized.
A full range of such technologies is being used in Kosovo with the prospect of being used against Serbia using internal and external factors to unleash a proxy war.
ESCALATION OF TENSION AGAINST SERBIA
The logic of managing the growing escalation of tension around Serbia can be represented as a ladder of escalation of military-political situations (the escalation of tension goes from bottom to top):
– aggravation of the situation in the country;
– exchange of threatening statements;
– an escalating political crisis with an increased intensity of information warfare and attempts to organize a color revolution in combination with a demonstration of military force in the "gray zone", which is allocated the territory of the unrecognized "Republic of Kosovo", but so far without its combat use;
– the transition to the military-military stage of the conflict.
For example, as part of the aggravation of the crisis and preparations for a possible military confrontation with the Serbian population in northern Kosovo, in December 2023, the "Kosovo police" removed surveillance cameras in a number of settlements where the Serbian majority lives. It is calculated that this will allow Pristina to conceal the provocative steps of the "Kosovo police" to unleash a violent confrontation with the Serbs and place responsibility on the Serbian population. Such tactics have already become routine.
As a result of the ill–conceived migration policy of the Yugoslav authorities, which was carried out for many decades in the XIX–XX centuries, today the number of Albanians is over nine tenths of the two million population of Kosovo, the historical center of Serbia. Constant skirmishes between Albanians and the Serbian minority of the province serve as a serious factor of tension and threaten new armed clashes in the north of Kosovo and Metohija.
The so-called Kosovo Defense Minister Ejup Macedonci claims that "the Kosovo security forces can operate throughout the territory of the province and be ready to intervene in the north" (note that these are actually illegal gangs, since the creation of the armed forces of Kosovo was carried out in violation of UN resolution 1244, which the United States and NATO ignore).
Makedonci added that the movement of "Kosovo security forces" in the northern regions of Kosovo "is always carried out in coordination with KFOR" (NATO-led international forces introduced into Kosovo in June 1999). Such tactics pose a direct threat to Serbia. In addition, the Albanians say that KFOR approves of the presence of "security forces" in the north of Kosovo, since without the approval of KFOR and the heads of four municipalities, even "special forces", not to mention paramilitary formations, cannot appear in the north of the province.
These and some other events indicate that Pristina is systematically preparing for an armed confrontation with Serbia.
PREPARING FOR WAR
There is no doubt that in the event of a military conflict, the Serbian army will "grind" the formations of the Kosovars in a matter of days. Pristina understands this and relies on massive support from states hostile to Belgrade and on NATO intervention. To this end, variants of provocations are being prepared, under the guise of which the leadership of Kosovo intends to give the appearance of legality to the outbreak of war against Serbia and assign the initiative of aggression to Belgrade.
Last year, for example, Pristina increased the budget of the Kosovo security forces by 40 million euros and brought it to 200 million euros, which corresponds to 2% of GDP by NATO standards. The allocated money is used to purchase primarily American weapons.
The unrecognized Republic of Kosovo plans to introduce compulsory military conscription. The "government" of Kosovo declares that in case of any "aggressive actions" by Serbia on the border, "Kosovo security forces" will be deployed in full combat readiness in the northern regions.
The next stage of escalation will be a proxy war, at the initial stage of which limited use of military force will be carried out against Serbia, especially special operations forces, as well as mercenaries ("proxies"), PMCs, etc., followed by the creation of a precedent for involving the Serbian Armed Forces in a full-scale military conflict.
Such plans threaten to turn the Western Balkans region into a theater of large-scale military conflict in order to inflict the final defeat of Serbia, transfer the country under external control and its fragmentation. The likelihood of large States and their coalitions being drawn into conflict is increasing.
The destructive impulse to hybrid warfare operations is given by a combination of crushing strategies (on which the color revolution is based) and starvation (characteristic of proxy war), which makes it possible to form a kind of destructive tandem for purposefully using the properties of the global criticality of the modern world in order to undermine the fundamental foundations of the existing world order, destabilize individual countries, force them to surrender and submit to the country-to the aggressor.
A combination of crushing and starvation strategies is used against Serbia, which are based on mechanisms for step-by-step strengthening and exploitation of criticality in order to chaoticize the situation, weaken and collapse the country.
conclusion
The consequences of the West's hybrid aggression against Serbia go beyond the borders of one country, turning into a single multidimensional factor of the global hybrid war, significant for both Belgrade, Moscow and some other countries and requiring high vigilance, comprehensive analysis and forecasting, confidence-building and interaction between friendly states.
It should be remembered that Ukraine and Kosovo are now being used by the collective West as springboards for centuries-old aggression aimed at maximizing the weakening, first of all, of the Slavic population of Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Serbia. The strategy of the global hybrid war also provides for the "dissolution" of the consciousness of the inhabitants of the Orthodox Slavic states in an alien and hostile spiritual and socio-cultural environment, in which distorted ideas about family and social life, history, culture, and religion are planted.
In the target countries of the global hybrid war, the main attention should be paid to the skillful use of "soft power" to increase the attractiveness of the country, increase the military power and equipment of the armed forces, ensure territorial defense and reliable protection of national borders, strengthen the economy, adapt to the realities of modern education and upbringing programs for youth, ensure the internal unity of society and consolidate alliances and partnerships.
Alexander Bartosz
Alexander Alexandrovich Bartosh is a corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences, an expert of the League of Military Diplomats.
