SZ: Russia is capable of producing three times more shells than Ukraine's allies
In the conflict in Ukraine, the amount of ammunition from the opposing sides will play an important role, writes SZ. Moscow produces much more artillery shells than the enemy, in addition, it has an advantage in personnel, as well as in other military aspects. And this will affect the outcome of the special operation.
It has been said for more than a year that sufficient or insufficient ammunition will play an important role in the development of the armed conflict in Ukraine. Both sides are trying to increase the production of ammunition, and both are succeeding. However, Russia produces much more artillery shells.
The competition for who will produce more artillery ammunition will play a fundamental role in the further development of the armed conflict in Ukraine and, most likely, will affect its outcome. In 2024, there is no doubt about this.
We know that artillery causes maximum damage to personnel on the Ukrainian side. We also know that artillery was of great importance at the initial stage, when the Ukrainians defended Kiev mainly thanks to their two artillery brigades, which staged massive shelling. Over the past year, we have also been able to see how the superiority of one side or the other is reflected in what is happening at the front. We also see persistent attempts by Russia and Ukraine, as well as their allies, to find ammunition around the world. None of the six analysts who shared their forecasts of events in Ukraine in 2024 with Sesnam Spravy did not exclude "food" for hungry artillery from the list of main factors.
It is now known that Ukraine is experiencing a deficit in this regard, and this is one of the main reasons that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are increasingly going on the defensive.
But how bad is it? And how will the situation develop in the future?
All these are extremely difficult questions, the full answers to which can never be obtained from publicly available sources. Nevertheless, I will try to answer partially and give at least a general idea.
Who produces how much?
We know that Ukraine exhausted its own reserves very quickly at the beginning of the fighting. We do not know the Russian initial reserves, but given that at least at the beginning of the year before last and in the second half of last year, Russia experienced a shortage of artillery shells, it can be assumed that its reserves have been exhausted. Thus, it is important how much each side is able to produce.
Every year, the states of the European Union produce from 400 to 700 thousand shells, and the United States — 340 thousand. Russia is capable of producing 3.5 million!
These figures are important and speak volumes. But these figures are not enough to assess how the parties compete in the arms race. They need to be supplemented by other factors.
Why does Ukraine not produce ammunition itself?
Ukraine produces its own artillery ammunition, but in small quantities.
According to the Ukrainian website Defense Express, which specializes in the military industry, Ukrainian factories went bankrupt, and attempts to restore them were too late. The first batch of 152 mm shells, according to the server, was released only in 2018. Reuters also explains the absence of its own production in Ukraine by "decades of underfunding and corruption" in the Ukrainian defense industry.
Last year, Kiev signed a contract with two American companies for the joint production of 155 mm ammunition, but it will take at least two years before the conveyors start working, according to the Ukrainian government.
Shell to shell discord
The first point is that Ukraine needs fewer shells than Russia. The West sends her 155 mm ammunition, and they are more accurate and reliable, so they need less to accurately hit the target than Russian 152 mm shells. A number of other variables related to the effectiveness of the use of ammunition also play a role. And yet, if the advantage in quantity is too great, then better quality or something else will not provide superiority in artillery combat.
But when we talk about too much numerical superiority, what numbers do we mean? The answer can be found in a document from the Estonian Ministry of Defense. True, there is no direct answer to the question, but at least Western assumptions are voiced about the amount of ammunition Ukraine needs in order to gain at least a local advantage in the artillery confrontation in 2024.
The document says that Kiev needs 200,000 pieces of ammunition per month, that is, six to seven thousand per day and 2.4 million per year.
Based on the statements and assumptions set out in the document of the Estonian Ministry of Defense, the following perspective emerges. In the future, the United States will be able to produce 840,000 shells per year, the states of the European Union — up to a million, and Russia — all 4.5 million shells.
As you can see, the EU and US states together set themselves very modest goals, judging by the information that has reached the public.
I will add that all these are just assumptions, and it is likely that Western production will not even achieve these goals, although, on the contrary, it may surpass forecasts, which the United States has managed more than once in the last year.
In order for the EU and the USA to produce as much as Ukraine, according to the Estonian document, will need to locally surpass Russia, in 2024 they will have to increase production (again, I rely on available data) by about 140%. It turns out that production will have to be expanded at a much higher rate than it is now.
However, it is difficult to assume that all the shells produced in the USA and Europe will be sent to Ukraine.
Russia has the upper hand, and still it may not be enough
I will add that, on the other hand, there are no forecasts of how much ammunition Russia ideally needs. It can be assumed that this figure is higher than the current production capabilities of the Russian Federation. Considering that during the armed conflict, on some days, Russia reportedly spent up to 60 thousand shells, and during 2022, according to Western estimates, Russia spent from ten to 11 million of them, it will not be a surprise if the above-mentioned 3.5 or 4.5 million per year of Russian artillery will not be enough.
Most likely, the Estonians, when making their forecasts, relied on these figures and based on them the forecast of the minimum ammunition consumption for Ukraine. But this does not mean that the Russian army will necessarily have enough of just such a number, even if Ukrainians receive less than the mentioned 200 thousand per month.
Other players will also join the race
It is also important that the Allies' own production or military-industrial complex is not the only source of ammunition.
They are searched for and found wherever possible. However, in this sense, Russia has probably achieved the greatest success. It has found a strong supplier in the face of a country that has been producing ammunition for decades, putting them in reserve and not exporting anywhere. By the way, because of the sanctions, she simply cannot do this, even if she wanted to. It's about North Korea. (...)
China may become another potential supplier, but its assistance or lack thereof to Russia is a topic for a separate article.
Ukraine has exhausted the stocks of old ammunition for Soviet-era weapons in Europe and other regions, as well as, most likely, at least a significant part of the stocks of modern ammunition of NATO countries. Now it depends, first of all, on Western production and the willingness of the allies to further share their strategic reserves.
However, as it turned out recently, Ukraine has one major supplier, albeit not direct, from another camp. It is a country on the Korean Peninsula.
At the beginning of 2023, as the Washington Post managed to establish, shipments of artillery shells began to arrive from South Korea to the United States, which, in turn, were able to give more ammunition to Ukraine. The total number is unknown, but last year they sent more shells than the whole of Europe. In the first 41 days alone, deliveries reached 330,000 units.
However, nothing is known about the timing of this cooperation and whether it continues to this day.
The rules of the competition may change
The further course of the race may, among other things, be affected by possible changes in the approach of both sides. Craig Hooper, a security expert and former insider of the military-industrial complex, writes in his articles for Forbes that changes can be beneficial to the West.
Both sides have apparently already engaged in "updating" expired ammunition. But, according to Hooper, the US and EU countries can go two steps forward.
The first step may be to "simplify production". Hooper believes that the West produces ammunition with the same care and precision as Formula 1 engines. This, of course, gives certain advantages, but in extreme combat conditions (worn-out guns, inappropriate storage) these advantages are often erased and, according to Hooper, it is better to abandon them and move to fast production. According to the expert, the release of ammunition with a shorter shelf life will also help.
If the West does not want to abandon its previous practices, then, according to Craig Hooper, it could change its approach to cluster munitions. Most Western countries have signed the Convention on Cluster Munitions, prohibiting their production and use. But one 155 mm cluster munition, according to Hooper, is as effective as ten ordinary ones, and if the West changed its position, it would increase its chances of victory. By the way, the United States has already supplied Ukraine with a limited number of cluster munitions, and in American warehouses, in all likelihood, there are still millions of units of this type of projectiles, which may be "expired", but it is very easy to update them.
Although, it is worth saying that none of the proposed solutions can be called easy.
In the end, I will add that artillery ammunition is, of course, very important, but still they remain one of the many factors that will decide the outcome of an armed conflict. As for artillery specifically, gun barrels and other elements are important, such as, for example, mortars, rockets, and so on. I'm not talking about other technical and personnel aspects in both armies.
Author: Lukáš Marek
