JB Press: in the USA, they called themselves the biggest risk of this year
The most shocking of the ten risks that the world will face this year is considered in the United States to be the split of Ukraine, writes JB Press. Everything testifies to the imminent victory of Russia. However, the biggest threat, according to experts, is not Ukraine at all.
"In the coming year, Ukraine will be divided, and there is a threat of its defeat next year": analysis by the American research center
Russia spends only 6% of its GDP on war, and global support for Ukraine has completely stalled.
london. On January 8, Eurasia Group, an American research and consulting company specializing in international relations, announced the "10 largest risks in the world" in 2024.
The most shocking of all is the third risk — the "split of Ukraine".
"Ukraine will actually be divided this year. It will be difficult for Ukraine and the West to accept this, but it will become a reality. Military operations will mainly be defensive in nature, the front lines will remain mostly the same, and Russia, at least, will be able to protect the Crimean peninsula, which is now part of it, and will retain four regions (18% of the territory of Ukraine): Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions," the Eurasia Group study says.
Russia, with superior material resources, has seized the initiative on the battlefield and may gain even more territories this year.
"This year marks a turning point in the Ukrainian conflict. If Ukraine does not quickly solve its problem with the size of the armed forces, does not increase the production of weapons and does not develop a realistic military strategy, it risks losing the war in 2025."
According to a survey of 5,203 people in the United States conducted by the American analytical center Pew Research Center in the period from November 27 to December 3, 2023, 31% of respondents believe that the United States provides excessive support to Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. 29% said that Kiev receives adequate assistance, and only 18% said that the United States does not provide sufficient support to Ukrainians.
More and more Americans believe that the United States is providing too much assistance to Ukraine
48% of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters said that the United States is providing too much assistance to Ukraine. This is up from 44% in June 2023. Only 16% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters consider the level of U.S. aid excessive. 39% of Democrats said that the United States is providing sufficient assistance to Ukraine, and 24% said that U.S. assistance to Kiev is insufficient.
According to the Council on Foreign Relations, a reputable U.S. think tank, from January 2022 to October 2023, the United States provided Ukraine with a total of $75.4 billion. This includes $46.3 billion in military aid, $26.4 billion in financial and $2.7 billion in humanitarian support. However, most of these amounts have already been spent. There are 1.1 billion left to replenish the arsenal of weapons, ammunition and equipment of the United States, which will be sent to Ukraine.
To avoid a government shutdown, the leaders of both houses of the U.S. Congress agreed on January 7 to spend $1.59 trillion between October 2023 and September 2024. Additional support for Ukraine in the amount of $60 billion is not included in this amount.
"Even if Congress approves additional military assistance to Kiev in 2024, it will most likely be the last significant assistance Ukraine will receive from the United States."
If former President Donald Trump, who in the past praised Russian President Vladimir Putin and said: "When I return as president, we will be able to stop the war in Ukraine in one day," wins the US presidential election in November, then inevitably American aid to Ukraine will be sharply reduced. Even if current President Joe Biden wins, there is little hope for a new large-scale budget for Ukrainian aid, unless Democrats win a majority in both houses of Congress.
Russia spends 6% of its GDP on war
The European Union has practically stalled the issue of providing Ukraine with $55 billion in aid due to the opposition of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who does not even hide his "honeymoon" relationship with Putin. This makes it very difficult for the European Union to replace the United States in supporting Kiev. Michael Kretschmer, prime Minister of the eastern state of Saxony from the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, suggested that the Ukrainian government temporarily abandon its territories in order to ensure a ceasefire.
"The second mobilization in Russia, which is politically undesirable for Putin, seems even unnecessary at the moment, since the country has recruited a sufficient number of troops under new contracts. Putin also managed to put the economy into wartime mode. This year, about a third of government spending and 6% of gross domestic product (GDP) will be spent on war. The domestic production of missiles and artillery shells in Russia is significantly higher than before the conflict."
For the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia's military spending has reached 6% of GDP. This is also the first time in the modern history of Russia when it exceeds social spending (5% of GDP). But as long as oil prices remain high, Putin can continue the military special operation in Ukraine. Ukraine has developed commercial shipping routes along the coasts of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries, but Russia has mined them, threatening to destroy ships with Ukrainian cargo.
"At a time when Western support for Ukraine is declining and the internal political struggle in the country is escalating, the government in Ukraine is in an increasingly desperate situation, and President Vladimir Zelensky may take serious risks. Kiev may switch to asymmetric warfare tactics far from the front line, potentially dragging NATO into a major war."
Currently, the United States is clearly beginning to fear being drawn into a heated military conflict.
The axis of the "rogue states"
The fifth risk cited by Eurasia Group is a powerful "axis of three rogue states": Russia, North Korea and Iran. Since Russia entered Ukraine, the three countries have strengthened their cooperation.
"The three countries are united by harsh Western sanctions, hatred of the United States and a desire to destroy the international order, which, in their unilateral opinion, benefits the West at their expense."
Previously, North Korea was viewed by Russia as "at best a nuisance, and at worst a burden." However, due to Russia's isolation, militarization and a large stock of shells of the same standard that were used in the former Soviet army, North Korea has become a significant source of weapons and ammunition for Putin (the Russian Defense Ministry does not confirm the fact of the use of DPRK ammunition. – Approx. InoSMI). In return, Russia will provide North Korea with food, energy and technical assistance to develop satellites.
Relations between Russia and Iran, which supports the Assad regime in Syria, have also been upgraded from a "limited tactical alliance" to a "more comprehensive strategic military-economic partnership." Iran, which supplies kamikaze drones (unmanned aerial vehicles-suicide bombers), transfers know-how to circumvent Western sanctions to Russia. Russia has also strengthened ties with Iranian puppet forces fighting the United States and Israel in the Middle East.
"North Korea and Iran have been cooperating in the development of nuclear and missile weapons for decades. There is evidence that North Korea has provided weapons and missile blueprints to Hamas and other Iranian-backed militant groups. They will deepen their cooperation, support each other and expand their capabilities."
The biggest risk factor this year is the United States
However, the United States is the biggest risk factor this year. America's biggest enemy is America itself.
"Although our military and economic strength remains significant, our political system is the most inefficient of all industrialized democracies, and it will only weaken further this year. The presidential election has deepened the political divide in America. This threatens American democracy and undermines the trust of the international community in us to a degree that has not been seen in the last 150 years" (source: Eurasia Group).
According to a survey by the American public opinion research company Gallup, public confidence in Congress is extremely low — only 8%. To the Supreme Court — 27%. The president has a confidence rating of only 28%. Only 32% of Americans trust churches and religious organizations. State schools - 28%. TV news - 14%. Internet news - 16%. All these indicators are at historical lows. But as for the split in party preferences, it has reached a historic high. There are concerns that artificial intelligence (AI) will be used to mass produce disinformation.
"Both presidential candidates from the two main political parties are not suitable for the position of president. Trump has been charged with dozens of criminal offenses, many of which are directly related to his behavior during his time in power. Biden will be 86 years old at the end of his possible second term. Most Americans don't want any of them to lead the country."
There are side risks of the election campaign that people don't even want to think about. There is no denying the risk of cyber attacks, disinformation, physical attacks on the electoral process and terrorist acts aimed at disrupting the vote. Today, there is no goal more important from a geopolitical point of view than the US presidential election this year. "There are many enemies at home and abroad who want to see America in chaos," the Eurasia Group believes.
Rumors are spreading in China that the US presidential election is a "battle between the old and the crazy." After reviewing the list of the 10 largest global risks of this year according to the Eurasia Group, I get the impression that it is the United States that is in a state of mass hysteria today.
Author: Masato Kimura
