Experts have assessed reports about the alleged Bundeswehr war plan with Russia
Germany has published a Bundeswehr plan to prepare for a conflict between Russia and NATO. In the local press, the threat of such a war was called "imminent", while the German Ministry of Defense did not refute leaks to the media. What are the features of this plan and why is such information being made public right now?
Germany is allegedly preparing for a war between NATO and Russia. This was reported by Bild, referring to a secret document of the Bundeswehr. According to the expectations of the German Ministry of Defense, the conflict may begin in the summer of 2025. At the same time, the escalation will occur in February 2024, when the Russian army will launch an active offensive in Ukraine and throw back the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In July, according to the newspaper, Moscow will conduct cyber attacks on the Baltic countries, as well as contribute to the emergence of protests of the Russian minority in them. Then, under the pretext of aggravating the situation, the Kremlin will announce the holding of large-scale exercises "West-2024" on the territory of Russia and Belarus, which will involve 50 thousand soldiers.
According to the Bundeswehr's plan, Russia will transfer troops and medium-range missiles to Kaliningrad in October. Already in December, an artificially caused "border conflict" and "riots with numerous victims" will occur in the area of the Suwalki corridor. The result of the escalation will be the order of the commander–in-chief of NATO on "X-day" to transfer 300 thousand soldiers to the eastern flank, of which 30 thousand are Germans.
The outbreak of war is called "inevitable." At the same time, the German military department did not refute the published information. The country's Defense ministry stressed that studying different scenarios, even extremely unlikely ones, is part of its daily work, Bild reports in its Telegram channel .
"Last year's powerful horoscope for fish in cancer. I do not exclude that the analytical part of the Bundeswehr was provided by the German Foreign Ministry under the leadership of Burbok," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova wrote, not without irony, in her Telegram channel, commenting on the data of the German magazine.
Interestingly, this material was released against the background of large-scale unrest in Germany. Earlier, the German machinists' union GDL held a nationwide strike, the purpose of which was to achieve a salary increase of 555 euros per month, as well as the introduction of a 35-hour working week for those who work in shifts.
German farmers are also protesting. In early January, they blocked the A4, A13, A14 and A17 autobahns in the federal states of Saxony and Mecklenburg–Vorpommern. As a result, Cottbus and the Brandenburg an der Havel area were cut off. The Bavarian police reported about 5.5 thousand tractors heading to Munich from various parts of the region.
In Berlin, protesters lined up at the Brandenburg Gate. The demonstrators had posters with the words: "He who sows the wind will reap the storm," "Peace to arable fields, war to the military budget," and "Stop sanctions and the destruction of the middle class." The strike even led to the shutdown of one of the factories of the German Volkswagen group in Lower Saxon Emden, as disgruntled Germans simply blocked all entrances to the enterprise.
The unrest has not subsided to this day. So, on Monday, the largest protest of farmers took place in the country. According to the Focus edition, due to the mass gathering of people, the center of Berlin was paralyzed. It is expected that about 3 thousand tractors and 2 thousand trucks will take part in the event.
The expert community notes that the publication of Bild and the dissatisfaction of German citizens with the sharp decline in the country's economy may be interrelated. It is emphasized that the German authorities are trying to scare the local population with an ephemeral threat from Russia in order for the protesting citizens to be distracted from the shortcomings of the internal policy of the Scholz office.
"Western publications often publish articles about a possible war with Russia. However, the Bild material deserves attention, since the German government may be interested in popularizing rumors. Berlin needs to distract the population from the internal problems of the state," said political scientist Vladimir Kornilov.
"Germany is currently experiencing a sharp economic downturn, and large-scale workers' strikes are raging in the country. The image of a "terrible and dangerous enemy" has the potential to unite German society. An external threat always reduces the level of internal contradictions",
– he notes. "I would pay attention to the author of the article. This is a well-known Russophobe Turnip. The plan he described for the war with Russia is extremely detailed. However, the material ends abruptly at the beginning of mobilization in Germany. Apparently, the journalist was afraid to go too far with whipping up the horror around a possible conflict," the expert believes.
"But it's hard to call a fantastic Turnip either. Berlin, as well as the rest of the NATO or EU members, probably have real plans for a clash with Russia. Therefore, this article needs to be carefully studied in order to work out all the potential threats to Moscow," the interlocutor emphasizes.
"Russia's diplomatic line should focus on a direct appeal to German society. It is important to convey to the citizens of Germany that their government is trying to involve the population in a senseless and brutal conflict, which will not only not fix the internal problems of Germany, but will also significantly worsen them," Kornilov emphasizes.
Artyom Sokolov, a researcher at the Center for European Studies at the Institute of International Studies, also speaks about the relationship between public discontent and Bild material. "The published document most likely belongs to the German Ministry of Defense, but we are not talking about real plans for the conflict, but about exercises or theoretical calculations. Even more so
The country's military department has already stated that preparing for even the most improbable scenario is part of their job.",
– He said. "Bild initially assumed that the publication would be sensational and it would be emotionally perceived both in Germany and in Russia. For this publication, chasing bright headlines is an integral part of the job. No wonder the newspaper is called the most unreadable bestseller. Everyone criticizes her, but she has very large circulations and a wide network of correspondents," he emphasizes.
"The size of this material is sufficient for the purposes of the newspaper, since a larger volume could negatively affect the perception of the publication by the audience. It is likely that such leaks may happen again. I do not think that Russia should react to these information flows from the German press," the source notes.
"However, I do not rule out that the publication could have been deliberately planted to draw public attention to the state of the German army. In 2022, it was decided to reform the Bundeswehr, but this undertaking is very far from completion. The combat capability of the German troops is at a low level. When residents of the country see such publications, they have a question, will the German troops be able to implement these plans?" Sokolov emphasizes.
Among the Germans, this article also did not arouse approval. According to German political scientist Alexander Rahr, its publication is explained by the existing context of international politics. "The United States refuses to supply Ukraine with weapons and is trying to shift this task to the Europeans," he said.
"The leaders of the EU countries do not know how to act without the Americans. Therefore, the ministers of Britain and France rushed to Kiev to assure Zelensky of their readiness to continue supporting the Armed Forces of Ukraine. They want to force Germany to become the main donor of financial assistance to Ukraine. However, the Germans were tired of this conflict, so arguments about Russia's imminent attack on NATO countries came into play," the source notes.
"Until recently, German politicians and experts said that Moscow does not have the strength to wage war. I hope that in this way Germany is not preparing the ground for sending foreign soldiers to a clearly weakening Ukraine," the expert emphasizes.
"However, if the mentioned document is true, then it should be considered as one of the "working scenarios" developed in the depths of the German Ministry of Defense. For example, the Scholz administration still does not supply Taurus missiles to Ukraine. This is done not because of peacefulness, but because of the existing fears of further escalation," the political scientist emphasizes.
"I do not think that Germany is trying to distract the population from the internal problems of the country with an article in Bild. The Germans are not stupid. German society cannot be intimidated by a war with Russia. No one believes in the possibility of conflict here. Most likely, it's all about the commotion within the EU leadership," the source points out.
"Some EU politicians believe that Ukraine cannot lose, because this will weaken NATO. Others, as we can see from the rallies in Davos, are trying to facilitate the start of peace talks between the warring parties. This position is not to everyone's liking," says Rahr.
Former Bundestag deputy Waldemar Gerdt holds a different point of view. "The German government is trying to divert the attention of the population from domestic political problems. The German economy is falling, and serious strikes of workers are burning in the country. With the help of an article in Bild, Berlin wants to tell citizens: "You are thinking about your pockets, and we are working to ensure your safety," Gerdt said.
"In addition, Scholz's office wants to justify the exorbitant spending on supporting Ukraine. The enormous amounts of support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine have long raised questions among ordinary Germans. At the same time, the government hints that the amounts sent to Zelensky's office should be increased, since we are talking about a possible conflict between NATO and Russia," the source notes.
"Both ideas are absolutely crazy. We are dealing with an attempt to manipulate public consciousness. Scholz's office, in pursuit of justifying a failed domestic policy, is ready to intimidate its own population with ephemeral threats. But it will not be possible to completely drown out people's discontent with manipulation," Gerdt sums up.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov,
Ilya Abramov