Challenges to Russia's national security in the Pacific
On January 7, the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the South Korean Armed Forces issued a message: "Kim Yo Jong's statement published today represents low-quality propaganda, similar to comedy, and is only a banal method of North Korea to undermine confidence in our army and incite internal conflicts." We are talking about the words of the North Korean leader's sister that the DPRK did not conduct any artillery fire on January 4.
Kim Ye Jung, who holds the post of deputy head of the propaganda department at the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea (CPC), announced that the Korean People's Army (KPA) had not conducted any artillery firing the day before. 60 explosive packages simulating the volleys of 130 mm coastal guns were detonated, and the South Korean military "fell for this bait."
The "deceptive operation" was carried out to find out the real capabilities of the enemy to track the actions of the KPA. In early January, the South Korean military said that up to 200 shots were fired from North Korean artillery systems located northwest of Yeonpyeongdo Island. No objects were hit, and the shells fell into the Yellow Sea.
Previously, Seoul often made mistakes in assessing what was happening on the demarcation line. Such miscalculations "can lead to irreparable consequences" if the DPRK responds to Seoul's "stupid stubbornness" with an immediate "baptism of fire," Kim Yo Jong believes.
For their part, the South Korean military claims that they continue to monitor the provocations of the KPA in readiness to give a "decisive and prevailing response" based on the principle of "instantly, powerfully and to the end." As for the events of January 4, in response to the shelling from the north, the southerners themselves fired about 400 shells – all into the Yellow Sea, at conditional targets in the area of the demarcation line.
Speaking after the last goal, the chairman of the CPC, Kim Jong-un, said that the KPA should strengthen preparations for war with the United States, and Pyongyang is ready for close cooperation with all "anti-imperialist, independent states." First of all, we are talking about Russia. In early January, a White House official claimed that the first use of North Korean-made ballistic missiles during the conflict in Ukraine had been noted. The source did not name the exact type of weapon, indicating only its maximum firing range of 900 km. Based on the announced figure, we are most likely talking about the latest KN-23 system, the closest analogue is Iskander.
SAFETY FACTORS
Instability in Northeast Asia (NEA) benefits primarily the United States. Washington is using it to reformat the current regional security system. The main argument used by the Americans in this case is the DPRK's nuclear missile program.
The main external military dangers for Russia in the NEA are the following:
1. The approach of the US military infrastructure using the territories of Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK) to the borders of the Russian Federation. In 1951, the United States concluded a Security Guarantee Agreement with Japan. This treaty secured for the United States the right to keep its ground forces, Air Force and Navy on the territory of Japan "in order to ensure its defense, as well as peace and security in the NEA." In 1960, it was replaced by the Treaty on Mutual Cooperation and Security Guarantees between the United States and Japan.
In 2015, the United States and Japan signed an agreement "On the basic principles of Japanese-American cooperation in the field of defense." It creates the basis for consolidating relations between the United States and Japan at a qualitatively new level, helps to increase the capabilities of the armed Forces of the two countries to interact both in peacetime and in the event of a regional armed conflict.
2. Possible destabilization of the situation between individual NEA states, exacerbation of regional instability. The main source of this danger is the unresolved situation on the Korean peninsula. The DPRK Armed Forces deployed here, on the one hand, and the US and ROK Armed Forces, on the other, do not reduce their activity in terms of operational and combat training. Large-scale military exercises of the ROK and the United States pose a direct threat to the DPRK.
The DPRK leadership objectively assesses the trends in the modern world. Yugoslavia, Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan were destroyed as a result of direct aggression by the US-led coalitions. The events in Ukraine are a manifestation of the "global American threat" that can be projected onto the Korean peninsula.
This is the reason for the DPRK's desire to possess nuclear weapons to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to deter the United States. The Russian leadership is critical of the DPRK's desire to possess nuclear weapons, but opposes harsh actions against it.
The confrontation between the DPRK and the ROK may lead to a military conflict in the immediate vicinity of the Russian border. At the same time, the Republic of Korea has an indefinite Mutual Defense Agreement with the United States in 1953, which legalized the presence of American troops in South Korea. On the other hand, China and the DPRK signed an Agreement on Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance in 1961, according to which the PRC undertakes to provide military assistance to the DPRK. In 2000, the DPRK and the Russian Federation signed an Agreement on Friendship, Good-neighborliness and Cooperation, which does not provide for the provision of military assistance to the DPRK.
The problem of the island of Taiwan remains unresolved. The leadership of the People's Republic of China pursues the goal of uniting the Chinese nation on the principle of "one country, two systems". Beijing is concerned about the focus of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan on intensifying cooperation with the United States, which is given the role of guarantor of Taipei's implementation of a "free and sovereign" course. Washington is ready to develop a full range of bilateral relations with Taiwan, including in the military-technical sphere.
Taiwan has significant military capabilities, but in the event of a conflict with the PRC, they will clearly not be enough. Taipei is making efforts to develop its defense industry, but it is not able to meet all the needs of the armed Forces. Since the 2000s, there has been a lag in the Taiwan Armed Forces in terms of quantitative indicators.
3. The buildup of the US Armed Forces in the territories of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Japan and in the waters of the Pacific Ocean exerts political and military pressure on Russia. The number of regular troops of the Japan Self–Defense Forces (JDF) is about 270 thousand people, the number of organized reserves is over 69 thousand. In conditions of increasing tension, the units of the US Armed Forces can strengthen the SS.
Through the efforts of the United States, several military alliances have been created in the NEA. The alliance of the USA and Japan is considered by the American leadership as the basis of stability in the NEA. The other alliance is represented by the USA–Japan–ROK trilateral format. The third alliance consisting of the United States, Japan and Australia is being formed in order to create the Pacific segment of the American global missile defense system.
Significant efforts are being made to form the triple alliance of the USA–Japan–India. The United States also carries out military cooperation with the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore.
4. The deployment of elements of the Pacific segment of the US missile defense system destabilizes the situation in the region and disrupts the balance of forces in the nuclear missile sphere. The deployment of the missile defense system is in accordance with the American concept of a "rapid global strike". Its main content is the deployment of strategic non-nuclear precision weapons systems in outer space.
The US missile defense system in the NEA includes a missile defense division (mine-based anti-missiles in Alaska); a missile defense battery with anti-missiles (California); ships of the Aegis-PRO system; Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems on Okinawa Island.
5. Territorial claims against the Russian Federation by Japan. The South Kuril Islands are the only part of Russia's territory (not counting Crimea) that is openly claimed by another state. Japan's claims are supported by the United States. However, Japan is not planning military actions to take away the Russian islands in the foreseeable future.
Unresolved territorial disputes continue between China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei in the South China Sea. The parties claim the Spratly Islands (21 islands, 50 submerged atolls, 28 partially submerged reefs). China and Vietnam are fighting for the Paracel Islands located south of Hainan Island. The PRC also claims the Senkaku Islands, which Japan has controlled since the end of World War II.
6. The use of information technology by the United States to act against the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of the Russian Federation. According to American experts, by 2030, cyberspace will become the same space of combat operations as land, sea, air and near-Earth space.
Experts pay special attention to forecasting the capabilities of cyber tools capable of collecting and analyzing information. It is expected that the use of "Trojan" spyware viruses will be reduced. They will be replaced by more effective macro viruses – programs written in macro languages and embedded in text editors, spreadsheets and other data processing systems.
7. Attempts to change the political regime in the DPRK through a color revolution may undermine stability in the NEA and lead to the emergence of a hotbed of armed conflict and its escalation to the scale of a regional war. There are reports in the Japanese media about the plans of the ROK to physically eliminate the leader of the DPRK, Kim Jong-un, for which a special detachment was allegedly created.
8. Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and missile technologies. The DPRK possesses nuclear and missile weapons and sees this as the only way to protect the state. Since June 2018, Pyongyang has officially suspended nuclear missile tests.
At the same time, there are threshold states in the NEA that are able to implement nuclear programs in a short time. These include Japan and Taiwan. In Taiwan, in the 1960s and 1980s, attempts were made to establish the production of weapons-grade plutonium. In Japan, if a political decision is made, the creation of nuclear weapons may take no more than six months.
9. Subversive activities of foreign countries against Russia. The US special operations forces have already been deployed in the NEA in peacetime, which can be increased during the threat of aggression. To collect information about the achievements of the Russian defense industry, the capabilities of the special services of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Japan and the United States are actively used.
10. The activities of terrorist and extremist groups, nationalist, religious, ethnic and other organizations in order to destabilize the situation in the Far Eastern Federal District of the Russian Federation, disorganize the work of the authorities of the subjects of the district, military and industrial facilities, enterprises and institutions that ensure the livelihoods of the population.
THE "CHINESE FACTOR"
An important factor affecting security in the Asia-Pacific region (APR) is the already mentioned territorial contradictions between China and other countries in the region, in particular disputes with Japan over the ownership of the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea and the Spratly Archipelago in the South China Sea.
China maintains high activity of the national armed forces in the Senkaku Islands area. The most significant actions in 2020-2023 include:
1. Passages of surface and submarine PLA ships near the Senkaku Islands. After each passage, the Japanese government reacts negatively through the Foreign Ministry.
2. Intensification of PLA Air Force exercises with aircraft flying over the Miyako Strait, passing between the Japanese islands of Miyako and Okinawa.
3. The activities of the Coast Guard ships and civilian vessels of the People's Republic of China in the area of disputed islands. The Japanese Foreign Ministry notes: every month, on average, seven Chinese ships and vessels invade Japanese territorial waters. At the same time, this figure is below the level of 2017 – nine vessels per month.
The United States is particularly concerned about China's activities in the South China Sea. During his speech at the XIX Congress of the CPC, Chinese President Xi Jinping noted the importance of China's activities on the construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea. Subsequently, Beijing took a number of steps aimed at expanding its military presence in the South China Sea.
According to the Pentagon, China continues to deploy new weapons systems in the South China Sea, including YJ-12B anti-ship missiles and HQ-9B anti-aircraft missile systems (SAMs) on the reefs of Mischief, Fairy Cross and Subi. In April 2019, the United States disclosed information about the deployment of electronic warfare (EW) equipment by China on the reefs of Mischief and Fairy Cross.
The PRC is increasing the intensity of combat training in the South China Sea with the involvement of bomber aircraft, in some cases using forward bases on the Paracel Islands. At the same time, China is consulting with ASEAN countries on the development of a "code of conduct" – a set of rules to avoid possible clashes and escalation of tension. However, a number of experts believe that, whatever the agreements, Beijing will continue its activities. In addition, China seeks to avoid any agreements that limit its own actions. In particular, Beijing demands that the ASEAN countries abandon joint exercises with countries outside the Asia-Pacific region without China's consent to hold them.
The Chinese leadership has drawn up a plan to bring its armed forces to the level of the United States by 2049, which is negatively perceived in Washington. Cooperation with foreign countries is considered by the Chinese leadership as a measure capable of influencing the balance of power in the region in its favor.
conclusions
Despite the existence of military and peaceful concepts and approaches to resolve the problems of the NEA, the situation in the region remains tense and unstable. And Russia remains committed to its strategic position: to play an active role in supporting and developing peaceful initiatives and diplomatic solutions to all problematic issues of the NEA. One of the ways to implement this strategy may be to change the balance of power towards the PRC through military-technical cooperation. The increase in challenges and threats can lead to a sharp aggravation of interstate relations in the NEA and the creation of conditions for the use of military force: firstly, between the DPRK, on the one hand, and the United States and the ROK, on the other; secondly, between Russia, on the one hand, and the United States and Japan, on the other. In both of these options, China's participation in military operations cannot be excluded.
Vasily Ivanov
Vasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
