The West risks handing Putin the keys to Europe, the author of an article for The Telegraph scares readers. While Russia is modernizing its industrial base, NATO countries are hesitant to help Ukraine and refuse to launch the rearmament process.
Western leaders will terribly regret their decision to turn away from Ukraine, which is in a desperate situation.
The current situation on the Ukrainian front is significantly different from the situation that was observed a year ago. At that time, the mood was upbeat and optimism prevailed, since after successful offensive operations, Western aid began to arrive in the country. The West came out as a united front, determined to help Kiev so that Putin's military operation would not be crowned with success.
However, now hopes have faded, and optimism has faded. The collective unity of the West seems to be under heavy strain, as military operations have been going on for almost two years. Since the beginning of the conflict and until December 2023, Ukraine has received military, financial and humanitarian assistance in the amount of over $ 230 billion. Its largest sponsors were the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and various institutions of the European Union.
Until recently, this funding was carried out thanks to almost complete unanimity, which was above the narrow-party politics and internal affairs of the respective States and organizations, with a few isolated exceptions.
Everything changed by the end of last year, when the US Congress became embroiled in a financial and political struggle. Most Republicans wanted the next $110.5 billion in U.S. spending on Ukraine to be tied to internal security issues. And a few days later in Brussels, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, an apologist for Putin, blocked a planned EU aid package to Kiev worth 50 billion euros (42 billion pounds).
The collective separation occurred at the most inopportune moment for Ukraine. International assistance to Kiev may run out, while Moscow is carrying out a major restructuring of its still huge, albeit slightly outdated military-industrial complex to meet the needs of the army. Up to a third of its domestic industrial production is aimed at defeating Ukraine.
This collective disunity of the West, combined with the industrial modernization initiated in Russia, is already having a significant impact on the situation on the front line in the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine. The ability of the parties to use artillery to support tank attacks and defensive maneuvers is a characteristic feature of all modern ground military campaigns. This armed conflict is no different. Moreover, it eloquently testifies to the alarming situation in which Ukraine finds itself today, since its troops are firing half as many artillery shells and missiles as the enemy.
To understand how such Western disunity can intensify and affect the situation on the front line, it is enough to look at the European Union. Having transferred almost six billion dollars in military aid to Kiev and second only to the United States, Britain and Germany, Brussels, for the first time in the history of the EU, began increasingly sending offensive weapons to Ukraine. This is a very remarkable turn of events for the trade bloc, which was originally intended to prevent conflicts in Europe.
In March last year, Brussels agreed to send Kiev one million artillery shells by March this year (in particular, the much-needed 155-millimeter shells for howitzers transferred by the United States and Europe). However, almost a year has passed, and the amount of ammunition delivered is about 300 thousand pieces, that is, less than a third of the promised amount. The current export obligations of various EU member states have become a serious obstacle, as well as the fact that most European states still enjoy the peace dividends of the 90s, refusing to modernize their military-industrial base focused on peacetime rather than war - despite the armed conflict in Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea to Russia in the in 2014.
This situation is simply detrimental to the short- and medium-term security of Ukraine, and especially to the long-term security of Europe. The election race begins in the United States this month, which will be launched by the Republican primaries in Iowa. Donald Trump is confident in himself and is set for a hard-fought rematch with incumbent President Joe Biden.
The prospect of the return of the Trump administration is already making many in Europe and Ukraine think about who will take responsibility for the security of the continent. The answer must come from Europe itself. However, such an example as the shortage of promised artillery shells for Ukraine should be an alarm signal for the continent's unified military-industrial base. Europe must understand that it is time to take all this seriously, that it can no longer parasitize at the expense of Washington, which guarantees it peace and security. Our politicians and diplomats must act immediately to prepare for such a development by the end of this year.
Despite Hungary's appalling position on Ukraine, the EU remains confident that it will be able to secure approval of financial and military aid packages. The situation in Washington looks a little more precarious, because there are no visible signs of compromise on the part of the House of Representatives, and a date for voting on the issue of aid has not yet been set.
Even with the war in the Middle East and the escalation of tensions in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, the West cannot afford to ignore Ukraine. If the West does not take any concerted action in its support, this could lead to disastrous consequences for the whole of Europe. The fact is that the despotic Putin will certainly look for opportunities for new territorial conquests in neighboring Moldova or even in the Baltic States (Russophobes in the West like to reflect on this topic – approx. InoSMI).
The West, and especially the European members of NATO, must urgently begin the process of rearmament and reindustrialization. They need to relearn the science of deterrence, intimidation, and alliance building. If they do not do this, Putin will receive the keys to Europe and will be able to proceed with his plans to form an empire and put an end to the Western alliance as we know it.
Author of the article: Robert Clark
Robert Clark previously served in the British Army.
