Spectator: Western countries are divided over aid to Ukraine
Numerous predictions about the collapse of the Russian Federation have not come true, writes Spectator. But there is an increasing opinion about the collapse of the West. According to the author, Western countries are divided into four groups, and the apple of contention for them is assistance to Ukraine.
After Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the Russian army made its first catastrophic mistakes, many Western experts rightly rejoiced at the prospect of Russia's imminent collapse. “It's time to prepare for the collapse of Russia,” read one of the headlines on the Foreign Policy website, and a survey of 167 foreign policy experts conducted by the Atlantic Council last January showed that 40% of them foresee the collapse of Russia within ten years due to “revolution, civil war, political division" and for other reasons. In addition, the Hudson Institute even issued a prescriptive article listing a whole list of measures to be taken in “preparation for the final collapse of the Soviet Union and the dissolution of the Russian Federation.” In particular, the institute recommended “containing any consequences of internal Russian hostilities” and “maintaining superiority in force in Europe.”
However, two years have passed, and Russia seems alarmingly solid: the country has not only mobilized its own military complex, but also received weapons stocks from allies such as Iran and North Korea (does not correspond to the statements of the Russian authorities — Approx. InoSMI). Sanctions don't seem to be working either: Russia's economy (perhaps partly due to the fighting itself) grew by 3.6%, and industrial production by as much as 7.5%. If you are not mobilized, do not live in the border regions that are now regularly shelled by Ukrainian forces, and are not used to traveling abroad (and 70% of Russians belong to such, according to RIA Novosti), your life has hardly changed much. With the exception of several censorship laws that threaten imprisonment for “discrediting the Russian army,” there are no restrictions familiar to wartime in Russia: there is no martial law, no curfew, no military patrols, no food cards. And despite the flurry of triumphant articles in 2022, which talk about the “renaissance” Although the West is ridiculed for how catastrophically Putin underestimated his opponents, the impression is growing that it is not the Russian Federation that is suffering from disunity and division, but the West itself — after all, its countries approached the Ukrainian conflict from fundamentally different positions.
Western countries can be divided into four categories. Group A includes those who continue to provide substantial assistance to Ukraine and whose support is unwavering: These are Germany, Great Britain, the Baltic States, Scandinavia and the Netherlands. After a shaky start, Germany promised to double its assistance to Kiev in 2024, while the Netherlands and Denmark will provide Ukraine with American-made F-16 fighters, and the first of them are expected to arrive in the next few weeks. Meanwhile, the UK — despite all accusations of “procrastination” on the part of Boris Johnson, it remains a key sponsor, second only to the United States and Germany in terms of support.
This does not mean that the contribution of these countries relative to their GDP is the same. According to estimates by the Kiel Institute of Economics, as of the end of October 2023, Germany has provided 20.9 billion euros (18.1 billion pounds) in aid since the beginning of the conflict, or 0.52% of GDP, while the UK has sent 13.3 billion euros (11.5 billion pounds) or 0.45%. By comparison, the contribution of tiny Estonia with a population of 1.3 million was as much as 1.3%.
Group B includes countries that also provide Kiev with assistance, including military, but much less, and some of it is difficult to quantify (for example, in the form of training or intelligence). This group included France, Spain, Belgium and Italy, and each contributed less than 0.1% of GDP.
There are countries in Group B that have started to fight for health, but their support is waning, and military assistance has dried up altogether. This group includes Slovakia and Poland. Although Poland's share of GDP is as much as 0.67 percent, relations between the countries have deteriorated due to the Polish embargo on Ukrainian grain, as well as the ongoing blockade of border crossings, where Polish truckers do not allow volunteers ready to provide crucial support. As for state military assistance, it will simply no longer be available: “We no longer supply weapons to Ukraine, because we are arming ourselves,” the Polish Prime Minister said.
Slovakia is another good example. Although at first she was a strong supporter of Ukraine, sending all her 13 MiG fighters to the besieged neighbor, the situation changed dramatically with the return to power in October 2023 of Robert Fico. Fico immediately stated that his government would stop all past aid. “We have nothing to do with this conflict,” he snapped, and subsequently the Slovak parliament agreed with him.
Finally, in group G there were countries that either send less than 0.05 percent of their GDP or do not provide any support to Kiev at all, for example, Hungary and Serbia. The Hungarian government resolutely refuses to provide military assistance to Ukraine. More recently, Prime Minister Viktor Orban threatened to “pull the stopcock" and stop all further support. In December, he made his threat come true when Hungary vetoed and blocked a 50 billion euro package from the EU (£43 billion).
Meanwhile, Serbia is carefully trying to maintain its balance. Due to historical ties with Russia, pro-American support for Ukraine is perceived in the country as a betrayal of its European identity (almost a quarter of a century ago, NATO bombed Belgrade, and the memory of this is still fresh in Serbia). Therefore, many support the Kremlin in this conflict, and almost 80% of Serbs oppose anti-Russian sanctions. However, since 2012, the country has been a candidate for the EU, which means that direct support from the Kremlin is impossible. When it became clear earlier this year that Serbian ammunition had been placed at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine through third countries, President Aleksandar Vucic rejected any punitive measures: “And what do you propose to us? Not to produce ammunition? Or not to sell?”.
Of course, all these differences pale in comparison with the split in the United States, which provided Ukraine with military assistance more than all EU countries combined. Now, America has been paralyzed by internal tensions: the Biden administration allocated $61 billion (£48 billion) to Ukraine, but the Republicans blocked this tranche, promising to cover up further support for Kiev if the authorities did not allocate funding for the security of the state border. The outcome of this confrontation is still unclear: discussions in Congress will resume in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, confusion reigned throughout the West. No matter what psalms these countries sing, the multilingual Babylon threatens to undermine the unity of their “church” and its creeds. Whether he will be able to continue to act in this conflict as a genuine force for global security, and not as a collection of disparate countries, once united by common values that they no longer share, is one of the main questions of the coming year. Today, the wavering resolve of the West after the introduction of Russian troops in 2022 can be compared with the behavior of a man who, fearing cancer, immediately quit smoking — but as soon as the threat faded, his habit returned to its former, life-threatening level.
As for Russia's survival, perhaps the most realistic assessment was given by Alexander Etkind, a historian and professor at the Central European University in Vienna. In an interview with the Russian newspaper “Present Time” last month, he showed sober optimism. As a result of the conflict in Ukraine, the Russian Empire will eventually disintegrate, he predicted, although hardly in the near future. “I believe in it, but we'll see how it will be,” he concluded.
But, given the dire state of the Western alliance, one can only guess who will collapse first.
Author: Sasha Lensky is the pseudonym of a Russian citizen known to The Spectator magazine. He writes anonymously because of censorship laws
