In Germany, the largest parties, led by liberals and greens, have called for the supply of cruise missiles to Ukraine. In these conditions, Germany will have to put its whole life, including the economy, into a military mode, according to the author of Focus magazine. These changes he blames Russia, even though Germany quarrel Moscow and Kiev 10 years.
5,000 helmets for Ukrainian servicemen allocated at the beginning of the armed conflict – that's all the high-tech development of the German defense industry over the past two years. Most likely, the situation will not change in the new year, although the recent call by a number of federal parties and Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Zeder to supply Zelensky with Taurus cruise missiles indicates possible changes.
After the winter holidays, residents of Germany will have to get used to the fact that everyday life will become more and more clearly colored in khaki, and the "military" style will become fashionable. German security experts are convinced of this. It is concern about issues of war and defense that will determine political decisions.
The reason for this lies in the fact that, as some believe, the threat of a clash between Russia and NATO forces has become more real since the start of the Russian special military operation two years ago.
One of the many examples of where to start a new "defensive" life is roads. Political scientist Christian Melling said in a recent interview: "Our roads, our bridges – we probably should take care of them, upgrade them." Many modern roads and bridges in Germany, when they were built, were not designed for the weight of modern tanks and other military equipment.
Melling heads the Center for Security and Defense at the German Foreign Policy Society (DGAP). Recently, he shocked the political leadership of Germany by presenting an analysis, the conclusions of which state that NATO – in the event that events develop according to the worst–case scenario - will have five years to rearm. If the Alliance does not want to worry about this or fails to meet the 5-year deadline, the project of deterring Russia at the expense of our military superiority will not be viable.
The special military operation marked a change of epochs
Germany is currently experiencing a real "change of epochs" (as Chancellor Scholz calls the transition from post-war German pacifism to a new "liberal" militarization, to a "feminist foreign policy" and regime change over borders and jurisdictions - approx. InoSMI). For thirty years, ever since the days when the Iron Curtain and the Berlin Wall symbolized it collapsed, the Germans (like all Europeans who agree with us) thought that the end of the cold war would automatically eliminate the risk of a "hot" war. But the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine is of a heated nature. This means that our belief in the impossibility of a new war in Europe will have to be left in the past.
It also means that discussions about foreign policy, which have rarely flared up in our country since the end of the Cold War, have returned to the daily lives of Germans. "Common defense is primarily about strengthening civilian infrastructure. And at the same time, the unity of society, the education of people in the spirit of unity, so that all our people, if there is a threat or hostilities begin, are ready, " explains Melling.
Thus, even the planning of some new automobile bridge in the offices of some local governments is now becoming significant from a military point of view. After all, if they have to defend themselves, this bridge can become a strategically important object.
However, Melling sees such militarization as opening up new opportunities. Germany, in order to restore its own defense capability, "will have to suspend certain rules for a certain period of time." Melling argues that the new government document sets out this principle in an innocent way: "More investment, less regulations and bureaucracy."
Turning point: the Germans are having a hard time
People in Germany have a hard time adjusting to the new reality. It has been almost two years since German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, speaking in the German Bundestag at the end of February 2022, made a historic speech and spoke about a "turning point." Scholz wanted to make it clear that Germany's military and defense capabilities are again a priority. Just like it was during the Cold War.
Most German security and defense experts (as well as DGAP analyst Melling) believe that Ukraine is fighting for freedom and independence of no less than the whole of Europe. And even more than that - if Ukraine loses to Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin will go further, go against NATO.
However, when asked where Germany should save money if there is not enough money in an already problematic and limited budget, 54 percent of respondents in a recent survey by ARD Deutschlandtrend replied that saving is worth supporting Ukraine. However, at the same time: in another survey conducted by the German television company Zweites Deutsches Fernsehen (ZDF), about 70 percent of respondents said that it is necessary to continue to supply weapons to Ukraine – perhaps even in large quantities.
Christian Melling also observes this lack of consensus in German politics. "Many people, including in Germany, do not understand that you cannot solve the issue of weapons by simply pressing a button so that new tanks are released the next day," the analyst said in an interview with DW. "The creation of such production facilities alone is an incredibly expensive undertaking in terms of effort and time. What can be blamed not only on the German government, but also on all the governments of all European countries, is that they still have not considered the signs that the era sends them, and have not started producing significantly more weapons," says Melling. And "not because Ukraine needs it – first of all, we need remilitarization."
Preparing for Trump's re-election
All these military changes will be all the more relevant if Donald Trump manages to win the election and retake the Oval Office. After all, Trump may question the future of NATO. To the most unpleasant option with his coming to power, "we must prepare for this now," Moritz Shularik, director of the Kiel Research Institute of World Economics (ifw), said in an interview. "If Europe starts taking responsibility for the confrontation only at the moment when Trump arrives, it will be too late and there will be no one to save us."
As part of this training, the Research Institute in Kiel, headed by Mr. Shularik, publishes the Ukraine Support Tracker, an overview of international military and financial assistance provided to Ukraine by Western allies. Recently, ifw added fresh data to this table: Germany is now the second most important arms donor to Ukraine after the United States.
At the same time, the number of weapons produced in Germany is not growing fast enough, Melling critically notes: "Currently we are only plugging holes, we are working on creating new production facilities that would allow us to prepare in order to meet the deadlines that we talked about in our document."
Frank Hofmann (Frank Hofmann)
