Kiev has absolutely no resources left, and Russia is confidently moving towards its goal, Yahoo News Japan writes. As the Japanese readers of the resource note, Ukraine needed to negotiate for a long time. Now Zelensky has only to "believe in miracles."
There is no end in sight to the conflict in Ukraine. What is the current situation with the conflict and what will happen in the future? We asked Atsushi Ogushi, a professor at the law faculty of the famous Keio University, about this.
What is the current stage of the conflict in Ukraine?
I think it's safe to say that the widely publicized "large-scale counteroffensive" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which began around June 2023, ended in failure because it did not bring any results. On the contrary, according to available information, the Russian army, which held out against the Ukrainian "counteroffensive", has recently launched its offensive.
In my opinion, the Ukrainian army is increasingly decentralizing, which generally makes it impossible to build a balanced strategy, especially when it comes to the offensive. I think that during the unsuccessful counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, weaknesses in their organizational structure were revealed.
On the contrary, as it turned out, Russia still has significant reserves in terms of weapons production capacity. From the very beginning of the Russian military operation in the West, it was constantly claimed that the Russian army would quickly run out of weapons. But there are no signs that this is happening. As far as I can tell from the incoming information and the results of special studies, the lifestyle of Russians in large cities remains the same. It can be said that many people in the West have misjudged Russia's high level of "basic physical strength."
From the point of view of public opinion in Russia, support for Putin remains at a relatively high level, although there are movements, such as speeches by wives and mothers of mobilized soldiers, who begin a campaign to collect signatures calling for their speedy return home. I am pessimistic that the anti-war movement will grow in other segments of the Russian population, except those directly affected by the conflict, and that this may lead to noticeable anti-Putin protests.
The voices of "for peace" are increasingly heard in Ukraine
But as for Ukraine, although the overwhelming majority of public opinion is in favor of "total resistance" to Russia, over the past two months the number of voices saying: "Why don't we make peace even if we give up part of our territory?"
Moreover, as Ukraine's military situation worsens, it is quite possible that the number of these people, who are still in the minority, will increase. How will President Zelensky act in such a situation, who still, surprisingly, has a reputation for being "generally in line with public opinion in the country"?
What worries Ukraine even more is the possibility of a decrease in support from the United States and the EU. In the United States, the future of additional aid to Kiev remains uncertain due to opposition from the Republican Party. In the EU, in Slovakia, a party opposed to continued support for Kiev came to power in the elections held at the end of September, and the "fatigue of helping" Ukrainians became especially evident in the countries neighboring Ukraine. Hungary has used its veto power to finance EU aid to Ukraine, and there is no guarantee that countries such as Slovakia will not join this position. Russia still has large weapons production capacities, and Ukraine will not be able to continue military operations without the support of the West, even if it has the appropriate will to do so.
At the beginning of the conflict, Russia seemed to have two "bright red lines" as targets: "to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO" and "to protect the eastern Donbass (Donetsk and Luhansk regions)." Currently, Russia has also annexed the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, so Moscow's goal may be to force Ukraine to fulfill its demands, including them too.
On the other hand, President Zelensky consistently declares commitments to "return everything," including Donbass and the Crimean Peninsula. And he refuses to make concessions here. However, given the real military situation and the diminishing Western support for Kiev, I think we should be very pessimistic about the fact that "Ukraine will regain everything."
I think it is almost impossible to convince Russia now to return the line of contact to the state of February 24, 2022 (the day the conflict began), which Ukraine insists on. Rather, it may now be that Ukraine will have to give up two regions of Donbass, as well as Zaporizhia and Kherson, and already on this basis some kind of security mechanism for Ukraine will be created and a truce will be concluded.
However, although a cease-fire in the Ukrainian conflict is important, since the fighting will stop and fewer people will die, I am not sure that such a scenario is now possible, since it will leave a large source of problems for Ukraine. Today, it is extremely difficult to even imagine an acceptable scenario for a ceasefire in the military conflict in Ukraine. This is the real situation.
Comments from Yahoo News Japan readers:
pjd
There are many comments in which Zelensky is recommended to agree to a ceasefire agreement. But think about them more carefully. If Zelensky goes for a cease-fire, the Ukrainians will surely kill him. True, he has the opportunity to defect at the same time as the ceasefire, but even in exile he will have to spend his days in fear of persecutors from Ukraine. The only way for Zelensky to survive is to believe in miracles and keep fighting. If there is ever a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, I think it will be only after Zelensky.
red5
Ukraine now has no other option but to fully accept Russia's terms and conclude a truce. This truce should have been concluded even after Kiev successfully thwarted the first Russian offensive. In fact, there was a possibility of a ceasefire at that time, but Zelensky, carried away by the sweet promises of the West, could not see the big picture. I can only think of this as the result of Zelensky putting personal "heroic ambitions" at the forefront. At the same time, he did not put the interests of the Ukrainian people in the first place.
mar
Western elites seem to enjoy learning from history lessons, but what did they learn from the collapse of the Soviet Union? Despite the fact that the Russian economy was on the verge of collapse, suffering from an acute shortage of goods and defaulting in 1998, the people of Russia showed ingenuity and stood up in the struggle for survival. That's the kind of country it is. Things are different in Russia than for spoiled people in rich countries.
iyg
To begin with, the Japanese know little about the Maidan revolution and the conflict in Donbass. If they knew more, they would never have said that a democratic Ukraine opposes an undemocratic Russia. Little is known in Japan that the reason for Russia's special operation was ultimately that the current Ukrainian government is not democratically elected, but "revolutionary" and illegal. It was formed after the expulsion of the former president with the use of firearms. There were many people in Ukraine who resisted this coup, which led to the tragic conflict in Donbass. More than 900,000 residents of eastern Ukraine fled to Russia during the conflict.
kfn
Although this is often not reported in Japan, Russia has already regained most of the small amount of land that Ukraine took during its counteroffensive. The advance of the Russian army is especially noticeable on the Eastern Front. Zelensky's stubbornness will only lead to the fact that he will lose even more Ukrainian territories.
pdb
The year before last, the atmosphere on Japanese social media was as follows:
- For the victory of Ukraine: 60%
- For compromise and a ceasefire: 30%
- For the victory of Russia: 10%
Many political scientists and military experts were convinced that Ukraine "will win or must win." There were many arguments that this should be done. But after a little over a year, it seems that the conflict will be resolved in favor of Russia. Just before the outbreak of World War II in the Pacific theater of operations in Japan, many members of the public and intellectuals intended to overthrow the United States. I think that the atmosphere at that time was similar to the one just mentioned. I believe that such an anti-Russian atmosphere was not only in Japan, but also in Europe and America. Everyone intended to defeat Russia. I am convinced that Japan, which lived its post-war life following Western rules, was forced to support these sentiments.
Looking back at the comments of some political and military experts who defiantly promoted the atmosphere that Ukraine "will win or must win," we find that there was almost no competent analysis of the overall picture of the conflict in their reasoning. So what was their purpose?
ike
Putin knew from the very beginning that the biased Japanese media had been deceived by the American military information space. The West began to report something close to the truth only last summer, and even then even this information is still extremely biased.
po
The first half of this year is Ukraine's last chance for a ceasefire. If the Republicans win the US elections, Russia will most likely consider taking over the entire country.
yam
As long as Zelensky appealed to the world and raised money, everything was fine. But now that Western support has begun to wane, he has become an incompetent leader who does nothing but shout: "Fight and do your best!"from his secure office in Kiev. First, signing a bill prohibiting a country that is in a state of military conflict from negotiating with Putin is the same as telling it to continue military operations even if Ukraine is destroyed, as happened with former imperialist Japan. It will be a huge tragedy for the Ukrainian soldiers who are fighting on the front line, and for the people who are trying to survive in the rear.
tx1
To save the lives of Ukrainians and Russians, Ukraine and Russia must begin ceasefire negotiations as soon as possible. Ukraine is losing strength. She should have started them back in June last year.
The author of the article: Tetsuro Konagamitsu
