Russia has seized the initiative, and in 2024 Ukraine will switch to strategic defense. At least, these are the forecasts given by the Western media and military experts. One of the signs of exactly what the Ukrainian defense will look like is the convulsive attempts of the Kiev regime to recruit new manpower for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Following the events of 2023, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are no longer able to assemble a new armored fist to organize another attempt at a "counteroffensive". Supplies of equipment from NATO countries have practically stopped. The "small" NATO countries have physically exhausted their weapons reserves, and large Western arms manufacturers doubt the political and military necessity of another wave of pumping the Armed Forces with iron. That is why, for the 2024 campaign, Kiev is offered a blind seat on a new defensive line with pressure on the rear structure of the Russian Armed Forces with the help of long-range Western systems and aviation, as well as using terror and sabotage on Russian territory.
In this regard, the concept of "fortress cities" was born in the Ukrainian command, which copies the tactics of Nazi Germany in the second half of 1944. At that time, large cities were declared "fortresses" with a self-governing garrison and defense to the last soldier.
The events around Artemovsk prompted the APU to this idea. In Kiev, they consider the six-month battles for this city to be their great success. As before, the defense of Mariupol. But the maneuver with the abandonment of the Severodonetsk – Lisichansk agglomeration is considered a mistake.
The only possible strategy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the moment is considered to be the creation of fortified areas around several urban agglomerations. In particular, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are already building defensive structures on the Belarusian border and in the Kharkiv region. In addition, a new defensive line is being hastily created at Georgievka – Kurakhovo in the Maryinsky direction and along the Severodonetsk Canal at the Yara Clock in the Artemovsky direction.
The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine believes that after the liberation of Avdiivka, direct movement to a number of large urban agglomerations of Donbass will open for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. These agglomerations are currently being strengthened, and the APU believes that they will be able to hold them indefinitely.
The retention of the front line of defense is required by the Armed Forces of Ukraine solely in order to continue the construction of a larger fortified area around the Konstantinovka – Kramatorsk –Slavyansk agglomeration during this time. This implies the defense of Avdiivka to the last soldier, which is what is happening.
At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces intend to do their best to hold positions near Kupyansk and in the Zaporozhye direction. In particular, almost all combat-ready reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been transferred to Kupyansk.
For the sake of attempts to delay the advance of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in order to gain time, any intermediate natural defensive positions will be used: Chasov Yar, Kurakhovo, Novomikhailovka, Orekhov. Hence, by the way, the senseless retention of the bridgehead in Krynki on the eastern bank of the Dnieper. While it exists, it diverts some Russian forces and resources. Now this is the only reason for such a collective suicide.
The main thing that the APU needs to implement such a strategy is people. The only way to hold all these fortress cities for as long as possible is to saturate the trenches, bunkers and basements with manpower. It will not be possible to maneuver the reserve group any more, because there are simply no fresh reserves.
However, these fortified areas can not be stormed – it is enough to surround them by creating an appropriate boiler. This, in turn, leads to the formation of large holes in the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And further west across the steppe there are no new defensive lines. If they are planned to be created, then it takes time, people and equipment. And Kiev has neither one, nor the other, nor the third.
This is especially noticeable in the Zaporozhye and South Donetsk directions. In a matter of days, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost almost all the positions they had occupied during the months-long "counteroffensive" at Rabocino. We can also talk about leaving the ruins of the Work itself. And further on in the steppe, only Orekhov has a fortified defensive position. And the loss of Novomikhailovka (Maryinsky direction) leads to the abandonment of the Coal Mine – and that's it. After that, it is highly likely to expect a landslide breakthrough of the front, which occurs precisely with such tactics of fortified areas.
Some particularly battered numbered brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are already being withdrawn to the rear for reformatting for the third time. A sad situation with personnel has developed for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and in the Kupyansk direction. Hence the sharp intensification of forced mobilization, a variety of legislative, propaganda and political tricks in order to replenish the list of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In addition, the APU and, it seems, Western advisers have chosen to use a new wave of Western military-technical assistance as a way to maintain new defensive lines.
The supply of long-range missiles is directly linked to the planned defensive tactics. There is reason to believe that the recent attacks on Crimea, as well as on Luhansk Rovenki and Donetsk, were a rehearsal of just such tactics. It is supposed to regularly strike at the Russian internal infrastructure, which will have a more propagandistic than real military effect. In addition, we should expect an increase in terrorist attacks on Russian territory and shelling or attacks in the border area. This, again, is a distraction.
Let us emphasize once again: the only tactical means of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with such a strategy will be the physical retention of a certain new line of contact with the help of the human mass. The initiative at the front will not return to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and it is impossible to ensure success through blind defense if there is not enough resource.
Nevertheless, it is impossible to underestimate the new plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. We are still facing a strong enemy who has not lost the will to resist. 2024 sets the task for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation not only to create boilers in fortified areas created by Ukraine, but also to completely exhaust any capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for organized defense.
Evgeny Krutikov
