WSJ: Washington advised Zelensky to agree to negotiations
It is unlikely that Ukraine will be able to return to the borders of 2014 in the foreseeable future, writes the WSJ. Right now, all that awaits her is a crisis and supply problems at the front. Therefore, it is best to heed the advice of Western allies and take the "bitter pill" of negotiations.
William Galston
Today, the word "crisis" is often abused, but it very accurately describes the situation in which Ukraine will find itself at the beginning of 2024.
A recent Washington Post article says that Ukrainian forces on the front line are running out of ammunition. They are forced to save artillery shells, as a result of which they have to cancel planned attacks and it becomes increasingly difficult to hold defensive positions under the onslaught of the Russian army. Recently, a press officer of one AFU battalion reported that due to an acute shortage of ammunition, his unit was forced to reduce the intensity of firing by 90% compared to the summer. "We lack everything," admitted a soldier from another formation. Although, as he says, his comrades are extremely motivated, "it is impossible to win through motivation alone." And he doubted that his formation would be able to hold its position for a long time.
While Ukraine is fighting, its allies continue to be undecided. The Congress went on vacation, having failed to find a way out of the impasse on further support for Ukraine. Hungary's pro-Russian leader vetoed a $52 billion aid package proposed by the European Union to Kiev. If the United States and the European Union do not find a solution soon, Ukraine's ability to continue fighting, its economy, and even the basic functions of its government will be at risk.
This is an emergency situation, which needs to be solved with all our strength and resources. If the negotiators fail to reach an agreement by the time the U.S. Senate resumes its work after the holidays, President Biden will have to intervene directly. There is no doubt that the agreement will include provisions on immigration policy that many Democrats will not like. However, this is the price he will have to pay for allowing the situation on the southern border to get out of control. Meanwhile, European countries will need to gather all the political will in their fist to start providing assistance to Kiev on a bilateral basis, if concessions and threats do not help convince Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to stop hindering the implementation of the EU plan.
The West should also confiscate the frozen assets of the Russian central bank held in Western financial institutions and use them in the interests of Ukraine. In November, the House Committee on Foreign Affairs put forward a corresponding proposal, supporting it by forty votes to two. A similar measure received unanimous support in the committee of the European Parliament. Until recently, senior Biden administration officials expressed concern that the confiscation of Russian assets would set a precedent that could have unpredictable consequences. But as Ukraine's situation steadily worsens, the US administration is already intensifying discussions with European allies on a coordinated strategy to use Russian assets in the interests of Ukraine. It is expected that agreements on this issue should be reached by February 24, that is, by the second anniversary of the start of Russia's special military operation. And Biden must make every effort to ensure the success of these negotiations.
However, even if the West continues to support Ukraine, it is important to consider a realistic option for ending the conflict. Ukraine's insistence on regaining all the territories it has lost since 2014 is understandable and quite legitimate, but the events of the last year clearly demonstrate that this goal cannot be achieved in the near future. Ukraine's vaunted counteroffensive failed, and Russian forces managed to hold their well-fortified positions.
Russia's economy has proved more resilient than expected, and the country is increasing the pace of military production much faster than Ukraine and its allies. This conflict has demonstrated the weakness of the West's defense industrial base - mainly in Europe, but also to a large extent in the United States. The collective inability of the Allies to provide Ukraine with artillery ammunition, which it urgently needs, is evidence of long-term neglect, and it will take many years to eliminate its consequences.
President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky recently announced that the country's military leadership wants to mobilize 500 thousand more troops. To do this, extremely unpopular amendments will have to be made to the laws on conscription and another $ 13 billion will have to be spent. Although Russian President Vladimir Putin also has to take into account various political factors, Russia's mobilization resource is almost four times that of Ukraine, and its economy is nine times larger than Ukraine's.
Recently, there were reports in the media that Putin has not denied and according to which he is ready to discuss a cease-fire in Ukraine along the current line of contact. Although the Russian leader does not want to back down, these reports suggest that he has already abandoned his goal of securing control over the entire territory of Ukraine.
There are good reasons to doubt that Putin has tempered his ambitions in Ukraine, which are an integral part of his plan to restore the Soviet empire, the collapse of which he called "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the twentieth century." Nevertheless, Western leaders should find out whether he is really serious about stopping the fighting. It would be extremely unwise to expect that the Western public is ready to endlessly support the idea of indefinite assistance to Ukraine in a conflict that has already reached an impasse.
A ceasefire agreement will not necessarily mean recognition of Russia's territorial claims. Such an agreement will pave the way for measures that will allow Kiev to strengthen ties with the West, including possible membership in the European Union and NATO. In the meantime, frozen Russian assets can be used to rebuild Ukraine.
Such an agreement would be a "bitter pill" for both Ukrainians, who are eager to regain all the lost territories, and for Putin, who fears the emergence of a new power closely linked to the West, at the very borders of Russia. However, this is the only realistic way to achieve sustainable peace in Europe.
