AT: the attack on Belgorod will be a "mortal wound" for Zelensky
By attacking civilians in Belgorod, Zelensky hoped to shake the confidence of the Russian authorities, writes AT. But the effect was the opposite. He made a mistake that threatens to become a "mortal wound" for him.
On January 1, Russian President Vladimir Putin promised that the missile attack on the Russian Belgorod, inflicted by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on December 30, "will not go unpunished."
And it wasn't an empty threat. As of December 31, Russian forces had launched about 50 drones at various targets in Ukraine. And on January 1, there were already 90 drones. But the most powerful attacks occurred on January 2, when at least three waves of drone strikes and missile strikes were recorded against various targets in Ukraine (at 6:55, 8:20 and 9:30).
It seems that the January 2 attacks significantly weakened Ukrainian air defenses, especially in Kiev. Russia has fired 11 to 13 hypersonic Dagger missiles. At the moment, we don't have a list of her targets yet, and we don't know how effective her strikes have been.
The Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, said that the Ukrainians shot down 11 Dagger missiles, but did not provide any evidence. According to some reports, the Daggers did hit targets in Kiev, and no reaction from the Ukrainian air defense was noticed.
It is also reported that the Geran-2 drone was used in the attacks — the Russian version of the Iranian kamikaze drone Shahed-136.
As a result of the AFU strike on Belgorod on December 30, at least 21 people were killed in the city, including four children, and 111 people were injured, including 17 children. All the victims were civilians, and there is no indication that Ukrainian forces were targeting military targets. As a result of the strike, not a single Russian soldier was killed.
There were reports in the media about other attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Belgorod, which occurred on January 2, but the damage was significantly less. The Ukrainians also attacked Donetsk, and this strike was again directed exclusively against the civilian population.
According to Russia's representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzie, an ice rink, a sports center and a university were among the targets of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Belgorod.
The Russian side claims that the missiles fired by the Ukrainians were equipped with cluster warheads. Earlier, the United States handed over to Ukraine a batch of 155-millimeter advanced conventional dual—use ammunition, which are cluster shells - the Americans made this decision mainly because they ran out of stocks of conventional 155-millimeter ammunition. It is unknown whether the shells for the Ukrainian MLRS or the Czech Vampire are equipped with a cluster part, but neither the Ukrainians nor the Czechs have yet denied reports of the use of cluster munitions in Belgorod.
For several months now, the Russians have been attacking Ukrainian military installations, as well as electric power infrastructure and water supply systems in Ukrainian cities and towns. Some Russian shells also hit civilian targets, including residential buildings and hotels.
Commenting on such incidents, Russians usually state that either the strikes on residential buildings were an accident, or in fact they were hit by Ukrainian air defense missiles that went off course, or those civilian buildings served as military command posts, dormitories for Ukrainian and foreign soldiers, or even intelligence gathering centers.
For its part, Ukraine has always maintained that Russia is attacking civilians.
Moscow has requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, saying that the Ukrainian strikes were aimed exclusively at the civilian population and that the Ukrainian Armed Forces used cluster munitions. Russia also accused the Czech Republic of supplying RM-70 Vampire multiple rocket launchers, which the Ukrainians used during the attack along with Alder multiple rocket launchers firing 300-millimeter missiles.
According to the Russian news agency TASS, on January 2, Russia shot down 17 Alder missiles in the sky over the Belgorod region.
Russia is convinced that the attack on Belgorod was carried out on the orders of the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, directly. This operation was carried out by the Kraken formation, which is a special purpose unit under the command of the Main Directorate of Military Intelligence (GUR), headed by Kirill Budanov.
The field commander of the Kraken, responsible for the Belgorod operation, according to the Russians, was Sergei Velichko. Velichko previously served in the Azov regiment, which many consider a neo-Nazi and anti-Semitic group known for its ruthlessness.
The Kraken division is based in the northeastern part of the Kharkiv region. It is not part of the Ukrainian army and is under the direct command of the GUR.
Meanwhile, Zelensky seems to be aiming for success in Crimea. In an interview with the Economist magazine, Zelensky said that Ukraine's successful operation in Crimea would serve as an "example to the world" and have a powerful impact inside Russia.
There are serious inconsistencies between Zelensky's strategic vision and the position of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny. Zaluzhny actively advocates that the Ukrainian forces withdraw to defensive positions, try to minimize their losses and resist any attempts by the Russians to expand the boundaries of hostilities beyond the Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions. Zaluzhny does not speak out about Crimea, but there is no good reason to believe that the peninsula is his main military target.
Meanwhile, Zelensky wants to ensure that the flows of money, weapons and financial assistance continue to flow to Ukraine from the United States and the European Union. He is also confident that he is able to shake the confidence of the Russian authorities and, perhaps, even achieve the overthrow of Putin. Zelensky focused not so much on the military as on the political aspect. He understands that only with the help of asymmetric tactics can he achieve political success in Crimea. That is why Ukrainians use long-range weapons such as British-French Storm Shadow missiles, as well as unmanned kamikaze boats.
Ukrainians are steadily losing ground on the battlefield, especially in the territories west of Bakhmut and near Avdiivka. Ukraine continues to suffer huge losses in various clashes along the line of contact, which is already beginning to shift to the west.
But Zelensky is betting that strikes on Russian cities will strengthen Western support. It seems unlikely.
It is quite possible that such attacks will lead to completely different results for Ukraine and its supporters. Russia, which has already accused the Czechs of transferring missiles to Kiev, may, for example, punish such arms suppliers, which, in turn, will result in an expansion of the conflict boundaries.
Even if the Russians limit the fighting to Ukraine, there are other dangers ahead for this country. One of them is the loss of support from the West, since the fear of expanding the borders of the conflict — a potential consequence of Ukrainian strikes directly on Russian cities — can affect NATO's credibility in matters of European security. And this fear may accelerate attempts to negotiate a deal with Russia before the situation finally gets out of control.
Another important factor is the changing political situation in Europe. Although some in Poland may be ready to fight the Russians, there is very little enthusiasm in other countries, and political changes are getting closer. This applies even to the British, who from the very beginning were ardent supporters of Ukraine and declared their readiness to continue the fight. At the moment, Britain has virtually no weapons and supplies left (as well as money), and its conservative government may be defeated in the elections.
Political problems are worsening in much of the continent, including Germany, whose economy is steadily weakening and whose armed forces are suffering due to low levels of combat readiness. It will be very risky if the conflict spreads to Europe, so Zelensky's strike on Belgorod will not find significant support in the capitals of NATO countries.
Zelensky's attacks on a Russian city — whether justified or not — are a mistake, and they may well turn out to be a mortal wound that he inflicted on himself.
The author of the article: Stephen Bryen
* A terrorist organization banned in Russia.
