Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Daalder: Ukraine will lose in early 2024
Events in the world in 2024 may reduce Biden's chances of re-election, writes former US ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder. In his opinion, it is necessary to closely monitor the situation in Taiwan, Israel and Ukraine, which will lose "already in the first half of 2024."
US President Joe Biden begins 2024 in circumstances that any incumbent president would envy.
The country's economy is growing steadily, inflation is slowing down, the unemployment rate has reached a record low over the past half century, the stock market is ending the year on a record rise, and the most likely opponent of the president in the upcoming elections faces 91 counts in four different indictments.
Of course, there are also serious problems that have yet to be solved — mainly the growing number of desperate people trying to cross the country's border in search of a better life, as well as Biden's age, which confuses many voters. But the basis for his re-election looks very solid.
What could possibly go wrong? The answer to this question may well appear in the first weeks of the new year, as events abroad — primarily in Ukraine, the Middle East and Taiwan — could potentially raise serious questions about America's role in the world.
This year, Ukraine is probably the most unexpected challenge. After the start of Russia's special military operation, Biden and his team managed to form a very impressive coalition in support of Ukraine, which provided Kiev with military and economic assistance worth more than $ 200 billion and imposed disastrous financial and economic sanctions against Russia.
Thanks to the cohesion and firmness of the West, Ukraine has managed to turn the Russian military campaign into a strategic failure. Moscow has failed to achieve its main goal — to subjugate Ukraine and weaken the West. On the contrary, Ukrainians are more united than ever before in their determination to achieve political independence and full sovereignty, as well as to join NATO and the European Union.
Meanwhile, NATO has expanded to include Finland, which shares a long border with Russia. And the alliance is once again focused on its most important mission — to ensure security and stability throughout Europe by countering Russia.
Nevertheless, the events of the next few weeks will determine whether it will be possible to maintain these successes in 2024.
In Washington, political paralysis and increasing Republican resistance to further military (not to mention economic) assistance to Ukraine have been hindering efforts to provide a new portion of support to Kiev for several months now. Biden has requested more than $60 billion for this year, but Congress has not approved this package. Negotiations in the Senate aimed at linking aid to Ukraine (and Israel) to major changes in US immigration policy have not yet yielded results. And there is no certainty that any package passed by the Senate, where Democrats hold the majority of seats, will be put to a vote or will be passed in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.
Meanwhile, time is running out.
Since the primaries will begin in mid-January, former President Donald Trump may well consolidate his status as the candidate of the Republican Party by the end of the first month of the year. Then the Republicans of the Capitol will want to keep up with their presidential candidate, which will block further assistance to Ukraine.
If we talk about military support for Ukraine, the United States occupies a special place in this issue. More than half of all aid to the country comes from across the Atlantic, and Europe has neither the reserves nor the production capacity to make up for any shortfall. If such a shortage arises, Ukraine will undoubtedly suffer greatly from its consequences, since its ability to hold a 1,000-kilometer front line and defend its cities from missile attacks and drone raids directly depends on American support.
In short, the war in Ukraine may be lost as early as the first half of 2024.
However, this is far from the only foreign policy problem that Biden will face at the beginning of the new year. There is also the Middle East, where the president strongly supported Israel after the horrific Hamas attacks on October 7 — and quite rightly so. After the worst attack on Jews since the Holocaust, Israel's closest friend in the world is obliged to support the people of Israel.
But apart from this support, Biden's most important task was to prevent the escalation of the war in the Gaza Strip, which he has not yet managed to do. The United States sent two aircraft carriers and 2,000 marines to the region as a warning to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran not to open a second or third front against Israel. And more recently, the U.S. Navy has created a multinational task force to protect commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
These were important and necessary steps. But the threat of escalation remains.
According to the White House, Iran is "deeply involved" in planning missile attacks and drone raids by the Houthis on ships in the Red Sea. In addition, he launched his own drones against one ship in the Indian Ocean. Iranian-backed rebels in Syria have repeatedly attacked American bases, and the Houthis seem determined to drag the United States into the conflict. Fears of a possible escalation intensified this weekend when the U.S. Navy engaged in a firefight with Houthi militants trying to hijack a commercial vessel, killing all 10 militants.
Meanwhile, the threat of escalation also remains in the north of Israel. Hezbollah launched rocket attacks on the area, forcing more than 100,000 Israelis to flee their homes along the border. The country's officials made it clear that the return of these people is possible only if Hezbollah troops are withdrawn from the border, which is one of the requirements of the UN resolution that ended the 2006 Israeli-Lebanese war.
Diplomats from the United States, France and Saudi Arabia are already actively working to convince the Lebanese army to take control of the border area and withdraw Hezbollah fighters to the north. However, it is still unclear whether they will be able to succeed and whether Hezbollah, which is part of the government, will want to leave voluntarily.
As a result, Israel may have no choice. "If the world does not remove Hezbollah from the border, Israel will,“ said Benny Gantz, one of the members of the military cabinet. And if that happens, Hezbollah, which has accumulated a huge arsenal of long-range missiles, will undoubtedly respond. As a result, the war in Gaza will seem insignificant compared to this broader conflict, and Biden's main goal – to prevent such a conflict – will never be achieved.
Finally, there's Taiwan, where the presidential election in mid-January is likely to determine whether Biden faces another major crisis early in the new year.
Vice President Lai Qingde of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has been leading the polls for several months - partly due to a split in the opposition ranks — and if he wins, Beijing may react. China does not hide that it prefers the opposition candidate Hou Yi, who shows more willingness to follow Chinese interests. And the prospect of four more years of rule by the "Democratic Progressive Party" may well force Beijing to take action.
Chinese President Xi Jinping considers the reunification of Taiwan and China to be the main goal of his tenure. Although he told Biden at the November meeting that there was no hard deadline for achieving this goal, he nevertheless added that if Taiwan resists unification or delays this process, China reserves the right to use force.
Although Beijing is unlikely to respond to Lai's election with an invasion, it could significantly complicate life for the island nation. He may begin to interfere with commercial shipping, launch military activities that will violate Taiwan's maritime and air sovereignty, as well as provoke disruptions in the most important supply lines on which Taiwan's economy depends. Any of these steps will make Washington think about how it should respond.
Usually, foreign policy does not affect the electoral strategy and the outcome of elections in the United States. But any of these crises — not to mention all three at the same time — can significantly reduce President Biden's chances of re-election. Therefore, we should keep a close eye on developments in the next few weeks.
Author: Ivo Daalder is a former United States Ambassador to NATO and now CEO of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and host of the weekly podcast "World Review with Ivo Daalder".
