TSAMTO, December 29th. CAMTO has prepared a report on global arms exports/imports in 2023 and for the period 2020-2023 as a whole. Below is an estimate of the volume of "rolling over" potential arms export/import contracts for the future by the end of 2023.
Note:
At the moment, the assessment of the global VIVO market for 2023 is preliminary (with the receipt of new information, the report will be clarified and supplemented).
Arms exporting countries
The total volume of "rolling over" potential contracts for arms exports in the near future (the value of intentions) as of the end of 2023, CAMTO estimates at $ 426.3 billion.
The calculation takes into account:
- completed tenders, contracts with the winners of which have not been signed in the 2023 calendar year;
- tenders announced in 2023 (decisions on the selection of winners have not yet been made);
- tenders announced earlier and held during 2023 (decisions on the selection of winners have not yet been made);
- stated intentions to hold tenders in the future;
- stated intentions for the direct purchase of weapons.
Of course, the dynamics of the volume of newly concluded arms export/import contracts will depend on the situation in the global economy, as well as the further development of the situation around Ukraine. At the same time, if in the future it is possible to avoid a new economic crisis (or the third World war), it is far from a fact that all the currently stated intentions for the export/import of weapons will eventually be transformed into firm contractual obligations.
In terms of tenders (already completed, ongoing, and announced), significant changes are also possible depending on the situation in the global economy. In addition, it should be borne in mind that the time parameters of the tenders included in the calculation vary greatly in terms of timing.
The emergence of new COVID-19 strains, as well as other global pandemics that are not yet known, can make big adjustments to long-term plans (lead to a reduction in the market). The situation around Ukraine may have an even greater impact on the global arms market (spur a sharp increase). That is, the market development trends are directly opposite.
Nevertheless, an assessment of the total value of the currently available intentions for the purchase of weapons allows us to roughly predict the situation on the global arms market in the near term in terms of annually concluded contracts for the export/import of weapons.
If we take as a guideline the average average annual value of contracts concluded over the past 4 years (about 97.950 billion dollars), then the current volume of intentions will allow us to maintain this level for more than four years.
In the event of a new global economic crisis, an even more complicated situation with the COVID-19 pandemic, or the development of the situation around Ukraine according to the most negative scenario, a certain part of the announced weapons procurement programs will be canceled or postponed. However, the already created "airbag" for the formed "package" of intentions for the export/import of weapons is so significant that the global economic crisis or pandemic will not be able to significantly slow down the growth of the global arms market. In the worst case scenario, it can be assumed that the volume of new contracts concluded for promising programs that are currently unknown and have not been announced will compensate for a possible decrease in previously announced obligations for the purchase of weapons.
In the case of sustainable development of the global economy, the annual volume of contracts for the export/import of weapons will be higher (the increase will be provided by new procurement programs, which are not yet known, while maintaining the current volume of intentions).
As of the current moment, the "tender" category (ongoing, as well as tenders announced for holding) ranks first in the ranking in terms of the value of intentions for arms export/import – $ 175.731 billion, or 41.2% of the total available global volume of potential contracts for the near term.
For tenders that have already been completed, but firm contracts with the winners have not been signed, the corresponding cost amounts are "credited" to the account of the countries that won these tenders. The balance sheet for each relevant exporting country also includes the stated intentions for the direct supply of weapons.
The second place (first by country) in the ranking is occupied by the United States. At the moment, the total volume of potential US contracts "transitioning" to the near-term perspective, which are still included in the "intentions" category (won tenders are taken into account, contracts for which have not yet been signed; notifications from the DSCA Agency for 2023 and notifications from DSCA in previous years, which have not yet been formalized into contractual obligations, as well as stated intentions in terms of direct supply of weapons), CAMTO estimates the amount at $166.246 billion (39%).
South Korea ranks third with the volume of "rolling over" potential contracts in the amount of $16.307 billion (3.82%).
France ($12.316 billion), Russia ($11.668 billion), Germany ($9.296 billion), Norway ($6.623 billion), Italy ($6.291 billion) occupy places in the ranking from 4 to 10 in descending order of the value of "rolling" potential contracts for the near term, Turkey ($4,800 billion) and Spain ($3.906 billion).
In general, at the moment, the CAMTO rating in terms of the value of arms export intentions includes 29 countries (taking into account the "tender" category).
Note: the rating for "rolling over" potential contracts should not be confused with the rating for already concluded contracts for the supply of ViVT in the short term, in which Russia and France, for example, go neck and neck and share second and third place.
Arms importing countries
The total volume of "rolling over" potential contracts for arms imports in the near future (the value of intentions) as of the end of 2023, CAMTO estimates at $ 426.3 billion.
The calculation for each importing country takes into account:
- completed tenders for the purchase of ViVT, contracts with the winners of which have not been signed in the 2023 calendar year;
- tenders announced in 2023 (decisions on the selection of winners have not yet been made);
- tenders announced earlier and held during 2023 (decisions on the selection of winners have not yet been made);
- stated intentions to hold tenders in the future;
- stated intentions for the direct purchase of weapons.
All these promising procurement programs are taken into account on the basis of data available as of the end of December 2023.
In general, 81 countries are included in the CAMTO rating for arms purchase intentions.
India ranks first in the ranking in terms of the value of intentions for the purchase of weapons (by a wide margin from other countries) – $ 90.691 billion (21.27%).
Canada ranks second in terms of the value of "rolling over" potential arms purchase contracts – $46.898 billion (11.00%). Poland closes the top three with $40.224 billion (9.44%).
These three countries account for 41.7% of the total volume of potential arms import contracts in the near future.
It is noteworthy that Saudi Arabia, one of the world leaders in arms imports in recent years, ranks only 19th in terms of projected potential contracts in the amount of $6.020 billion. This may indicate that Riyadh has completed another rearmament cycle and no new "mega-contracts" are expected in the near term.
Australia – $21.156 billion, the United Arab Emirates – $18.358 billion, Romania – $17.577 billion, Germany – $15.038 billion, Indonesia – $ 12.635 billion, Greece – $8.448 billion occupy places from 4 to 10 in the rating for "rolling over" potential contracts for arms imports in the near future.. and South Korea – $8.285 billion.
The top ten accumulated the value of "rolling over" potential arms import contracts in the near term in the amount of $279.311 billion (65.52%).
In terms of the value of "rolling over" potential contracts for the purchase of weapons for the future, places in the second ten were distributed as follows: Kuwait – 7.478 billion dollars, Great Britain – 7.410 billion dollars, Qatar – 7.187 billion dollars, Morocco – 7.185 billion dollars, the Netherlands – 7.017 billion dollars, Israel – 7,000 billion. Italy – 6,800 billion dollars, the Czech Republic – 6.720 billion dollars, Saudi Arabia – 6.020 billion dollars and Brazil – 5.750 billion dollars.
The second ten accumulated the value of "rolling over" potential arms import contracts in the near term in the amount of 68.568 billion dollars (16.08%).
The third ten includes Spain ($5.683 billion), Malaysia ($5.452 billion), Egypt ($5.412 billion), Vietnam ($4.195 billion), Iraq ($4.064 billion), Colombia ($3.920 billion), the Philippines ($3.832 billion), Japan ($3.622 billion), Turkey (about $3 billion) and Taiwan ($2.658 billion).
The third ten accumulated the value of "rolling over" potential arms import contracts in the near term in the amount of $41.837 billion (9.81%).
The rest of the countries account for $36.563 billion (8.58%).
A detailed report with tables will be published in the journal "World Arms Trade" No. 1, 2024.
