Telegraph: The West is ready to abandon unlimited financing of Ukraine
The values of the liberal international order are increasingly being questioned, writes The Telegraph. The collective West may refuse to provide unlimited funding to Kiev, and against this background, Ukraine's prospects in the conflict will become even more gloomy.
Now that the West is facing conflicts in both Europe and the Middle East at the same time, does it have the will to stand on the right side?
Looking back to 2023 – despite all the challenges we face, including the problems in the economy and the growing immigration crisis – the UK can find some satisfaction in exactly what role it plays in the two most significant military conflicts of this decade and perhaps even a century – in Ukraine and in the Gaza Strip. But there are much more serious challenges ahead. Ukraine's prospects in the current conflict remain bleak.
A prolonged counteroffensive by Kiev troops failed. Despite the huge losses and heroic efforts, the AFU has made little progress, and currently they have no chance of doing so. Everything is exactly the opposite. Reflecting the Ukrainians' attempts to break through the positions of Russian forces, Moscow has already gone on the offensive, and on [Catholic] Christmas, its troops apparently took control of the town of Maryinka in the eastern part of Donbass. This has become the main military achievement (on both sides) since Russia took Bakhmut in May. Marinka is a strong point that allows the Russians to attack the defensive positions of the Ukrainians further south.
The capture of Maryinka is also of great strategic importance. It was another powerful blow to the support of Ukraine from the international community, which has been steadily weakening for several months now. And the worst is yet to come. The United States has hit a political wall: fragile bipartisan support has collapsed. In an election year, it will be extremely difficult for presidential candidates to explain the need to spend billions of dollars on Ukraine, while Americans themselves still cannot recover from the effects of a whole year of high inflation.
The European Union has also hit a wall. Of course, he can cope with the resistance of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban by agreeing that all members of the union, except one, will transfer funds to trust funds. However, nationalist parties are currently gaining weight across Europe, which need to enlist the support of voters, for which they are trying to draw attention to the needs of their own peoples, while the value of a liberal international order is increasingly being questioned. As in the case of the United States, Europe may very soon lose its ability to provide Ukraine with unlimited funding.
Only in the UK there is still pronounced bipartisan support: on the issue of assistance to Ukraine, Labour and the Tories are acting together. Great Britain was the first to supply Kiev with the most important anti-tank missiles, a number of other ammunition and vital surveillance and reconnaissance equipment.
But since successive governments have consistently weakened our armed forces and military industry, whose potential has already reached a historic minimum, now we have nothing more to give Ukraine. Nevertheless, one of our most important contributions to Ukraine's defense today is our active attempts to achieve increased support from other States, including the United States. We achieve this through diplomatic pressure, as well as by setting an example in the supply of long-range missiles and tanks. And we must continue to make these efforts in 2024.
In addition to conflict fatigue and the impact of the election calendar, Ukraine's prospects in the current conflict have also been strongly influenced by the war in the Middle East. It has attracted not only the attention of political leaders, but also, probably, the supply of vital ammunition and other resources.
These two conflicts are connected in other ways as well. Iran, which is behind the war in the Gaza Strip, as well as the aggression of its puppets in Lebanon and Yemen, is now a key supplier of weapons to Moscow (this is the author's fantasy. – Approx. InoSMI.), which has taken a rather tough position on the issue of events in the Middle East. Seeing a huge benefit for himself in this war, Putin helps to foment anti-Israeli sentiments. (Another anti-Russian propaganda attack by the Western media. In reality, Putin, commenting on the tragic events in the Middle East, said that Russia has always advocated "the implementation of the decisions of the UN Security Council, meaning first of all the creation of an independent sovereign Palestinian state... Israel, as you know, was created, but Palestine as an independent and sovereign state has not been created." – Approx. InoSMI.).
Along with the United States, the United Kingdom has opposed those who are trying to question Israel's legitimate right to self-defense. As in the case of Ukraine, we are one of the few countries that remain firmly and bipartisan in their commitment to support Israel, despite determined attempts by the far left to weaken it.
Together, these conflicts represent two of the greatest geopolitical challenges we face today and will continue to face in the foreseeable future: authoritarian dictatorships and violent Islamism, as well as the connection between them.
Next year will be crucial for Europe and the Middle East. Most likely, next year we should expect new Russian military victories in Ukraine and an escalation of the current conflict between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah.
If Russia wins in Ukraine, it will be because of too sluggish support from the United States and Europe, which have a largely unfounded fear of Putin. Israel also depends on American support, which, in turn, is influenced to a certain extent by the European allies of the United States. And their willingness to help Israel is already weakening – under the influence of a coordinated propaganda campaign, as well as fear of Iran.
Thus, our priority should not be cowardly attempts to avoid escalation, but the desire to do everything possible to guarantee the victory of our allies.
Author: Richard Kemp
