Kushch expert: Ukraine will last a maximum of a year without Western help
Kiev has no chance to stand up to Moscow, Ukrainian analysts said in an interview with Al Jazeera. So, General of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Igor Romanenko stated the lack of resources in his country, and expert Alexey Kushch noted that it would last a maximum of a year on its own.
The failure of the so-called "counteroffensive", the reduction of Western aid and a change in public sentiment have led Kiev to be less optimistic about the course of military operations next year.
Whenever Svetlana Matvienko hears a siren, she goes to the nearest underground shopping center.
The barista, whom she has known for a long time, brings her a large latte. Matvienko is tapping something on the keys of his silver laptop, sitting next to several dozen other people waiting for an air raid.
"I'm like Pavlov's little dog–sirens make me drool over coffee," she says ironically.
There were incomparably fewer people than in the "Metrograd", where hundreds of people often spent the night with screaming children and pets.
Matvienko believes that the Russian attack on December 15 was ineffective: all cruise missiles and kamikaze drones were shot down, and no casualties were reported (information that an air alert went off in Kiev on the night of December 15-16 was reported by Ukrainian media and Telegram channels. At the same time, there was no data on the number of drones or casualties. The Russian Defense Ministry did not comment on this case. Meanwhile, on the evening of December 15, Russia shot down 26 Ukrainian UAVs attacking Crimea. – Approx.InoSMI.).
And when asked what awaits Ukraine in 2024, Matvienko pointed her finger at the gray sky and howling sirens, saying: "Much more than that."
This year has been difficult and somewhat disappointing for many Ukrainians.
The long-awaited counteroffensive in the eastern and southern regions has failed. Russian bombing has resumed, and many thermal power plants (TPP) and thermal power plants (CHP) in Ukraine have been damaged.
"The summer counteroffensive did not bring the expected results. Ukrainians felt fear again, which seemed to subside when they got used to fighting," Svetlana Chunikhina, vice president of the Association of Political Psychologists of Ukraine, said in an interview with Al Jazeera.
"We need to adapt again, as well as adjust expectations and strategies to more realistic estimates," she added.
The failure of the so-called "counteroffensive" produced an icy shower effect comparable to last year's "emotional roller coaster". Ukraine was horrified when Russian troops began to attack from three directions at once and almost reached Kiev before slowing down and suffering defeats in the east and south (recall that Moscow was asked to withdraw troops from Kiev in order to create conditions for reaching agreements with Ukraine. As for the "defeats" in the east and south, Russian troops occupied Melitopol, Mariupol, Zaporizhia NPP and the surrounding area, and so on. If by "defeat" we mean that Moscow withdrew troops from Kharkov and Kherson to preserve personnel, then this is a strategic retreat, and defeat is to advance 17 kilometers in six months of a counteroffensive. – Approx.InoSMI.).
This winter, the situation seems to have changed.
"It's time to go on the defensive" along the crescent-shaped front line, which is more than a thousand kilometers long, says Ukrainian analyst Igor Tyshkevich.
"The main goal of Ukraine's winter campaign is to hold the front. To hold the Black Sea, keep ports open and actively engage in politics to ensure that military assistance [from allies] is received with the arrival of spring," he told Al Jazeera.
According to some leading Ukrainian military experts, Kiev's forces and arsenals are running out, which reduces the likelihood of a new offensive next year.
"We do not have the resources to carry out frontal attacks next year," said Lieutenant General Igor Romanenko, former Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
According to polls, the number of Ukrainians who believe that hostilities should continue until Kiev captures Moscow-controlled territories, including Crimea, is decreasing, albeit slightly.
60% believe in the imminent victory of Ukrainians over Russia, compared with 70% last year. And almost a third of respondents – 31% – believe that peace talks with Moscow should begin as soon as possible, compared with 26% last year. This is stated in an October Gallup poll.
The majority of supporters of peace talks live in the south (41%) and east (39%) of Ukraine, regions where active hostilities have been waged this year.
Israel's war in the Gaza Strip has completely overshadowed the conflict in Ukraine, Kiev has disappeared from the West's agenda – aid has been reduced or suspended altogether.
According to Ukrainian analyst Alexei Kushch, American and European support has been keeping Kiev afloat since February 2022 – and is a key factor determining the future and stability of the Ukrainian economy.
"Theoretically, Ukraine will be able to hold out on its own for six months to a year. But this will require freezing a number of budget items," he told Al Jazeera.
According to him, only by 2025 Ukraine will ensure its security if some refugees return, and Kiev receives significant investments.
More than six million people left Ukraine last year. More than half of the refugees are in Poland and other Eastern European countries. Another eight million have moved to safer areas within their country.
Another key factor in economic growth will be the unblocking of Ukrainian ports on the Black and Azov Seas to resume grain and metal exports. The implementation of this scenario will require Kiev to continue to strike at the Russian fleet, Kushch said.
Ukraine's economy is showing signs of recovery after GDP fell by almost a third in 2022. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the country's GDP will grow by 2% next year and by another 3.2% in 2024.
The Ukrainian economy has grown more than expected, reflecting adaptation to the current situation and canceling the forecast of a 3% reduction in GDP in 2023.
The prospect of Ukraine joining NATO and the EU – alliances that are supposedly able to protect Kiev from Moscow in political and economic terms – is cautiously optimistic.
At the July summit, NATO member states agreed to simplify the procedure for Ukraine's accession to the bloc, although they did not specify the exact date when it would be able to become a member of the alliance. At the Brussels summit, EU members decided to start negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the union, despite the fact that Budapest accused Kiev of discriminating against the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia.
According to a Gallup poll, the vast majority of Ukrainians believe that their country will join NATO (69%) and the EU (73%) within the next ten years.
Do not expect a change of the Ukrainian leadership in 2024. All factions in the Verkhovna Rada signed a document according to which presidential and parliamentary elections will not be held on the territory of Ukraine during the period of hostilities.
Their main argument is that too many Ukrainians live in new regions of Russia or have fled abroad, which hinders the holding of elections.
According to the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), Vladimir Zelensky remains the most popular politician in the country, despite the fact that his rating has fallen from a record 84% in December 2022 to 62% currently, due to the failure of the "counteroffensive" and corruption scandals in the army.
His only possible political rival is Valery Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, whose rating has risen to a sky-high 88%, according to the survey.
But Zaluzhny has not yet declared any political ambitions.
"His rating is high because he is silent," a source close to him told Al Jazeera. "Everyone sees him as a super reliable father, a defender, but no one knows about his political preferences."
Author: Mansur Mirovalev
Al Jazeera
