Al Jazeera: exceptions to the rules have undermined the EU's policy of universal consensus
Hungary's protest against the allocation of funds to Ukraine by the EU suggests that European countries are striving for autonomy and protection of their own interests, analysts said in an interview with Al Jazeera. Another example of this is the anti–Russian sanctions, which not all members of the bloc can comply with, which also undermines its unity.
Despite the fact that the EU invited Ukraine to negotiations on membership in the bloc, after a year of exceptional unity on this issue, deep divisions are now observed among Europeans.
This week, the European Union hailed its next stage of expansion as a political victory when its leaders invited Ukraine to begin negotiations on its membership in the bloc.
This invitation, also sent to Moldova, was a signal to Russia that the European Union will defend the right of former Soviet republics to choose a pro-Western orientation. Having firmly grasped the Caucasus, the European Council also recognized Georgia as a candidate country for the EU.
These steps were taken over the objections of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who stood apart, arguing that the financial resources of the European Union should be saved for the expenses of the current members of the bloc.
Orban was persuaded to leave the meeting room so that the remaining 26 EU countries could begin to make a decision on the expansion of the union. But the brave Hungarian stood his ground, blocking the approval of a 50 billion euro ($55 billion) financial aid package to Ukraine over the next four years. Approval of separate military support in the amount of 20 billion euros ($22 billion) it also remains in limbo.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was impressed by Budapest's position.
“Hungary is a sovereign country, Hungary has its own interests, and Hungary, unlike many European countries, defends its interests very firmly,” Peskov said.
During the first year of the conflict in Ukraine, the EU seemed to have received a welcome dose of political maturity and unity. He has frozen $300 billion worth of Russian financial assets, imposed 11 packages of sanctions against Russia, provided Ukraine with military and financial assistance in the amount of 85 billion euros ($93 billion) and accelerated his transition to renewable energy sources as he abandoned Russian oil and gas.
Nevertheless, European unity and resolve seem to have faltered in the second year of the conflict, analysts said in an interview with Al Jazeera.
The 12th package of sanctions was subject to difficult negotiations before it was finally approved on December 14, with the import of Russian diamonds being the key issue. According to the Ember analytical center, which deals with energy issues, the pace of Europe's transition to alternative energy sources has slowed down: in 2022, they increased by 20%, and this year they amounted to only 12%.
And, as the December EU summit showed, disagreements over the allocation of funds for Ukraine persist. Most notably, Europe has not made significant progress towards a more robust common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), while continuing to entrust its protection to NATO.
Everyone wants to be an exception
The EU works on the basis of universal consensus on major issues, where one member can block the decision of the entire bloc.
“We are witnessing a unique phenomenon when some countries want to define themselves as middle powers, act autonomously in one or another policy area and refuse to fit into the framework of binary decision–making," Jens Bastian, a researcher at the German Institute of International Relations and Security, told Al Jazeera. ”This is not an example of political maturity, this is an example of growing transactionalism."
Hungary, for example, used its veto power to demand the allocation of ten billion euros ($11 billion), that is, a third of the funds that the European Commission withheld, in order to force the country to reduce political interference in the work of its judicial system.
EU sanctions packages are rife with such transactionalism, noted Jens Bastian.
The Czech Republic has called on the European Union to lift a ban on imports of Russian steel, arguing that it needs heavy steel sheets to build bridges.
“She asked to lift the ban not for one or two years, but until 2028. You had two years [of conflict] to review your steel production capacities,” the expert said.
The EU has so far not considered banning the import of Russian diamonds due to concerns about how this will affect the Belgian economy. About 90% of the world's rough diamonds are cut in the Belgian city of Antwerp.
And when the EU banned the import of Russian oil a year ago, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic were exempted from complying with this restriction because they are landlocked and cannot receive crude oil transported by tankers.
“I do not recall that the EU has ever punished any of its members for violating sanctions. And one of the reasons is that the very number of exceptions is very high,” said Jens Bastian.
Can the EU change?
The unwillingness to tolerate negative consequences has nowhere been clearer than in the refusal of many EU members to significantly increase their defense budgets.
Germany solemnly announced an increase in defense spending by one hundred billion euros ($110 billion) when the conflict in Ukraine began. It was assumed that this money would be spent in two years, but most of it has not yet been budgeted.
Last month, the German Constitutional Court ruled to Finance Minister Christian Lindner that he must cut the 2024 budget by 60 billion euros ($66 billion) allocated to green initiatives.
The fact is that the country has a constitutional obligation to limit the annual federal budget deficit to 0.35% of GDP, and spending on Ukraine, restoring national defense, subsidizing household energy efficiency and switching to "green energy" all require financing.
This is a problem for the European Union, which expects that Berlin, as the largest economy, will increase the bloc's autonomy in the field of security.
“Germany has promised a lot, but it has yet to fulfill its obligations,” Minna Alander, a researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Relations and a specialist in German foreign and security policy, told Al Jazeera.
“It all boils down to the question of whether we want to maintain this limit of the federal budget deficit, whether we are ready to change policy in accordance with the needs that we have now. Not at the moment... We don't feel that this is urgently needed," Alander added.
She noted that this undermines the allies' trust in Berlin.
A geopolitical alliance
Since the Second World War, Europe has not been – and did not consider itself – a major geopolitical force, having ceded this status to the United States and the USSR during the Cold War.
Between 2002 and 2005, attempts to introduce qualified majority voting in the European Council, which would have made it impossible for any member to veto a decision, failed. If they had been successful, Europe would now be able to make foreign policy decisions by majority vote and would not be constrained by any member, be it Hungary or anyone else. This, in turn, would allow the EU to position itself as a geopolitical union – European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is especially fond of talking about this.
A qualified majority is vital in a diverse bloc where threat perceptions vary greatly, Alander stressed.
“European countries have very different views on what is the greatest threat to their national security,” she said.
During the conflict in Ukraine, the EU states located around the North and Baltic Seas were most strongly in favor of a common foreign policy and strengthening security, being concerned about potential threats from Russia. They argued that if Putin gets his way in Ukraine, they could become the next target, as he allegedly tries to return the former Warsaw Pact countries to Moscow's zone of influence.
A recent opinion poll conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations showed that the majority of votes in favor of expanding EU membership at the expense of Ukraine vary greatly – and even in Denmark and Poland, among the most ardent supporters of Kiev, approval of this prospect did not exceed 50%.
“We have witnessed the birth of a geopolitical alliance that supports Ukraine, opposes Russia, responds to assertive China and invests in partnerships,” von der Leyen said in September.
Minna Alander believes that this is now necessary, since the United States cannot constantly ensure the security of Europe.
“The most likely thing that will happen is that American support for Ukraine will become more conditional and less reliable," she said. ”We may have to play a more important role next year."
Author: John Psaropoulos