HN: The Estonian Defense Ministry has developed a plan that should help Ukraine win
The Estonian Ministry of Defense has developed a plan that is supposed to ensure the victory of Ukraine and the return of all lands to it, writes HN. Tallinn sent an offer to the allies. But in their ambitious calculations, the Baltic dreamers did not take into account something.
Ukrainians, including President Vladimir Zelensky, admit that their country has been much less successful in the armed conflict with Russia this year than expected. The opinion is spreading that Russia is gaining the upper hand in the conflict and that Ukraine does not have enough forces to win. However, Estonia, which is a member of the North Atlantic Alliance and the European Union, believes that all this is a pure misconception.
The Estonian Ministry of Defense has developed a plan that will ensure Ukraine's victory and Russia's return of all occupied territories, including the Crimean peninsula. "Any other option would be a strategic mistake that would cost the whole world dearly. By doing so, we would show the way to our enemies and give them the opportunity to threaten us again in the future," the Estonians claim.
According to their analysis, the West will achieve victory, and at the same time it will not have to make any special efforts or allocate large funds. Estonians believe that it is enough for each state that helps Ukraine to allocate 0.25% of its GDP per year for military assistance. For the Czech Republic, this would mean spending about 18.5 billion kronor per year. During the first year of the armed conflict, the Czech Republic sent almost five billion kronor worth of weapons and materials to Kiev.
The problem is that the United States, Europeans, or, for example, Canadians do not have enough weapons and ammunition in their warehouses, first of all, the most necessary 155-mm artillery shells. But so far, artillery plays the most important role in this armed conflict. The states of the European Union have pledged to send a million units of these ammunition to Ukraine by March, but so far they have sent only 300 thousand. To date, the Americans have delivered more than two million pieces.
However, the Ukrainian army needs at least 200,000 such shells every month to maintain a fire advantage in specific areas of the front. "If Ukraine receives such an amount of ammunition every month, then European and American warehouses will be completely empty during 2024," the Estonians warn. Estonia is confident that European governments should place orders at defense enterprises jointly, that is, in large quantities. According to Estonians, this motivates manufacturers to produce more and faster.
In addition, Western states should significantly accelerate the training of Ukrainian units and send Ukraine new heavy weapons, as well as combat aircraft. Everything must be done so that the Armed Forces of Ukraine "could kill or seriously injure at least 50,000 Russian soldiers within six months." This, according to the Estonians, is the key to victory, because in this case Moscow will not be able to send sufficiently well-trained forces to the front for reinforcements. As a result, the Kremlin will have to admit that it is unable to achieve its goals in Ukraine.
The question, which, however, the Estonian Ministry of Defense has not thought through, is: will there be sufficient political will in the West to implement the steps described by him? For example, in the Czech Republic, the majority of citizens oppose further military assistance to Ukraine, and the number of opponents is growing almost everywhere, including the United States. In addition, next year there will be presidential elections, which Donald Trump can win again. And he talks about the need to drastically reduce aid to Ukraine.
But the Estonian Ministry of Defense is convinced that in 2024 Ukraine will successfully repel the expected new Russian offensive, and in 2025 it will inflict a heavy defeat on Russia, and "no later than 2026 Ukraine will win and Russia will lose."
Author: Ondřej Gouska