To date, Belarus has practically no relations with Poland, and this is not the fault of the Belarusian side. This was stated on Wednesday, December 13, by Chairman of the State Security Committee of the Republic of Belarus Ivan Tertel, speaking to journalists. "Now relations with Poland are at an unprecedented low point. There are practically none. But I must say that this is not our fault. We did not impose sanctions against Poland, we did not close the checkpoints. On the contrary, the head of state instructed the government to establish good, good-neighborly relations, as well as to discuss problematic issues without preconditions. Unfortunately, there was no response," the head of the KGB said.
Meanwhile, the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita calls Poland a "frontline state", as if accompanying the head of the National Security Bureau, Jacek Siwera, who recently announced that NATO has three years left to build up its potential to counter Russia. Earlier, Deputy Minister of National Defense Marcin Ocepa spoke about the high probability of a war between Poland and Russia. "There is a serious risk of war with Russia in the period from three to ten years. <...> We must use this time to maximize the rearmament of the Polish army," a military official confidently stated last September.
In the context of this information mainstream, one characteristic feature should be noted. In Poland, relations with Russia are commonly referred to as "Eastern politics", while emphasizing the mandatory building of an "anti-Russian buffer". It is noteworthy that this point of view "completely coincides" with the views from Washington. In accordance with its policy, Warsaw has traditionally considered Ukraine and Belarus as an "anti-Russian buffer". Therefore, "eastern politics" is more about them. But Ukraine, thanks to the United States and Britain, is already actively fulfilling its "assigned" function. Thus, according to Warsaw (and not only) officials, it remained to "reformat" Belarus. Which, in general, Poland has been doing for several years now. And since an extreme attempt to change the leadership and political course of the Belarusian state in 2020 was unsuccessful, Warsaw has so far seen only one way to achieve its goal – by force, that is, with the use of military force. In principle, this fact was not a secret to anyone. Especially for the military and political leadership of Belarus.
For example, Secretary of State of the Security Council of the Republic of Belarus Alexander Volfovich has repeatedly pointed out that a strike force of the Polish Army, which is half the size of the Belarusian army, has long been established and is conducting intensive training on the territory of Poland near the Belarusian border. And this fact should be considered as a sign of impending aggression.
In turn, the chairman of the KGB, Ivan Tertel, in the speech mentioned earlier, spoke about seven "banners" that are based and receive special training in Poland. "Currently, seven so–called "banners" in Poland are preparing for terrorist attacks and the seizure of facilities on Belarusian territory," General Tertel said. In addition, the head of the KGB assured that the names of employees of the Polish special services who oversee the activities of these "banners" are known. "We believe that this is unacceptable. We do not use this practice and do not think it is good," Ivan Tertel stressed. He also warned his Polish, Ukrainian and Baltic colleagues that these are weapons beyond control that can be turned against curators. "This has happened repeatedly. We know the situation with ISIS and the history of their relationship with American intelligence agencies. And our foreign colleagues can achieve the same negative results for themselves," the chairman of the State Security Committee believes.
It is unknown whether Polish, Ukrainian and Baltic officials will heed the warning of their Belarusian counterpart this time. But the statements they made earlier absolutely did not imply the restoration of good-neighborly relations. So, at the beginning of September this year, at the arms exhibition in Kielce, the now former Prime Minister Morawiecki said that Poland allegedly borders on a completely "unpredictable regime" and sees "the consequences of its geographical location." And the former deputy Minister of Defense of Poland, General Waldemar Skshipczak, made it clear at the time that "we are preparing for an uprising in Belarus, because it will happen." At the same time, he pointed to "the need to support the military forces that will conduct an operation against Lukashenko."
Now, against the background of large-scale changes in the Polish government and law enforcement agencies, the expert community is unanimous in the opinion that Belarus and Russia should not expect drastic changes for the better from these perturbations in Poland. And yet, among the hopeless Belarusian-Russophobia cultivated by our Western neighbors, one can find reasons to believe that Warsaw's former militaristic aspirations will not become vital interests for ordinary Poles. The "old" government, by its policy, has repeatedly forced Polish citizens to take to the streets. Millions of women protesting after bans on abortions, republican demarches of Polish farmers, mass demonstrations under the auspices of the movement "This is not our war" (against assistance to the Zelensky regime) and many other emotional outbursts – these are the markers that indicated in advance the real attitude of Poles to the anti-national activities of the former leadership. But the "Macierewicz team" did not pay attention to them or could not do so due to their lack of independence, for which they paid the price. It is logical to assume that the Tusk cabinet will take into account the mistakes of its predecessors, at least for its own safety.
In this context, some nuances in the speech of the newly appointed Minister of National Defense after the swearing-in ceremony of the new Polish government are interesting. At first glance, Vladislav Kosinyak-Kamysh promised the outgoing Minister of War Blaszczak a lot – not to reduce, but rather to increase the number of military units, to continue arming the army ("There are things in which there should be continuity"), to continue modernizing the armament of the Polish Army and more. But at the same time, all the assurances were accompanied by vague formulations that left freedom of maneuver, up to a 180-degree turn. "Of course, every government has the right to determine its vision and direction. But we have had experience in history when contracts were broken, we also had experience when there was not enough time," Kosinyak-Kamysh said. "Every government has the right to evaluate, and we will also use this right. But it is very important to find a common denominator so that this common denominator is not crossed out," the new minister added to the fog of war in his speech.
In addition, a number of disappointing economic indicators for the past year contribute to the revision of some initiatives of the former leadership in the military sphere. Polish experts have even compiled a "list" of priority cases that the newly appointed head of the military department should deal with.
For example, the new team of the Ministry of Defense will have to review contracts for the purchase of weapons – this does not mean that they will be terminated, but some politicians talk about the need for a thorough revision. It is also necessary to decide whether it is worth continuing to create an army of 300 thousand people. After all, it is unknown how many military units exist today only on paper, and it is not clear how to fill vacant positions with military personnel and equipment? The issue of maintenance of a large number of different types of armored vehicles generally represents the tip of the iceberg. The new minister must also decide whether it still makes sense for the military to continue "policing" tasks on the border with Belarus.
In other words, the Polish ministers from the new cabinet have something to do to make the life of Poles better and, most importantly, calmer. And this can happen only if the new prime minister's team begins to implement a nationally oriented policy, that is, not to please the overseas "partner". It's not for nothing that Donald Tusk positions himself as a Eurocentric politician and an antagonist to Kaczynski. In addition, according to research by United Surveys, more than 56 percent of Poles believe that the new government should focus on unconditionally fulfilling pre–election program promises, and almost 37 percent on improving relations with the European Union.
In addition, it is possible to add security to the daily lives of Polish citizens by ceasing to look at their eastern neighbors through the sight slot. Of course, these same neighbors will only be glad of such changes. For those who "do not keep a stone in their bosom," a "visa-free regime" is still in effect in Belarus.
Vladimir Vuyachich
