GN: Biden's fate depends on Ukraine, which has become a heavy burden for him
Ukraine has become a "sacred" victim of American political interests, writes GN. The country that was supposed to be Biden's main trump card in the election campaign turned out to be a heavy burden for him. Now the fate of the current US president depends on Kiev. And not only him.
Zoran Meter
The geopolitical desires of powerful states and experts united to formulate and implement them increasingly do not correspond to reality. Someone is making dangerous mistakes in this case, and these mistakes can have fatal consequences if they are not willing to admit them and find the right way. It's time for new Kissingers. The problem is that they are not on the horizon.
In the United States, everything has always been and is subordinated to presidential elections. This is what is happening now, and therefore what is happening should not seem surprising. However, the situation in which the United States and the whole world find themselves today makes the elections in November 2024 one of the most important, if not the most important in the entire history of this state due to the serious consequences of these elections both for the United States of America and for the whole world.
Therefore, the political struggle between Republicans and Democrats has already gained unprecedented scope in the United States, when the election year has not yet begun. The political arena, like American society, is deeply divided, and everything that happens does not bode well when carefully examined.
Who is the main victim of the American domestic political "millstones"?
In these millstones of the internal American political struggle, in which they attack and tear, in which fires are kindled and in which they do not choose the means to destroy the enemy, a kind of "sacred" victim, which is becoming more and more obvious, is a country far from the United States of America — Ukraine. It has become a bargaining chip and a means of realizing the ambitions of the two dominant American parties, as well as a means of achieving American national interests, which by default are considered the interests of all US allies, although in fact this is often not the case at all.
In Ukraine, in which so much has already been invested (both taxpayers' money and political and diplomatic efforts), Biden's policy will either prevail or fail, and it is on Ukraine more than on anyone else that his fate in the elections depends. In the same way, the fate of the entire galaxy of representatives of the so-called so-called deep state, which supports Joe Biden, depends on it. We are talking about a group of so-called "neo-cons" who control the Democratic and a significant part of the Republican Party.
The revolt of the right wing of the Republican Party
However, the right wing of the Republican Party rebelled against the "neo-cons" and their policies, which until recently did not pose a serious problem for the Democrats, since there were few right-wing Republicans in both houses of Congress.
However, the situation began to change rapidly, and many "ordinary" Republicans gradually "became infected" with the political ideas of the Republican right. They gradually realized what was "at stake" and how important the upcoming elections were, including for the fate of the Republican Party itself and its ability in the future to generally resist the Democrats, who took over almost all the key levers of power in the country, including the media.
This "infection" went especially fast after the shocking, unprecedented change in the history of the United States of America of the Republican speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy, who wanted to negotiate with Biden on the state budget. The Republicans replaced him on their own initiative with the sincere support of almost all Democratic representatives, which eventually turned out to be the last side. McCarthy was unexpectedly replaced by Mike Johnson, an outspoken supporter of Donald Trump, a man loyal to the traditional and conservative values of American society, that is, an ardent opponent of Biden's ideology (gender, race, and so on), that is, the ideology of the Democratic Party. It is being imposed by all means on American society in all states indiscriminately, and it does not matter whether the Democrats are in power there or the Republicans.
The war between Congress and the White House
Then the political struggle between the two parties in the House of Representatives of Congress escalated around the draft budget proposed by Joe Biden for next year, in the amount of about $ 105 billion. The project provides financial assistance to Ukraine (about $61 billion), Israel (about $ 14 billion) and Taiwan. Another topic that exacerbated the confrontation was illegal migration on the American border with Mexico.
As for assistance to Ukraine, from the very beginning, since the Maidan in 2014, there was a consensus in the United States, but now the two parties have diverged in their priorities. For Democrats, Ukraine, or rather the fight against Russia, remains in the first place, whereas for Republicans, the American state border is more important, as is Israel, of course.
Although Joe Biden provided additional funds for border protection, tighter control by patrol forces and technical means in the aforementioned draft, Republicans were still dissatisfied.
Unlike Joe Biden, who considers the migration problem exaggerated by Republicans, the Republican Party elevates it to the national level, realizing that this is one of the most pressing issues for American society and that thanks to it it is possible to win over voters to its side. In addition, Republicans claim that Democrats are abusing migration policy and, depending on their goals, pursuing a liberal immigration policy, changing the racial appearance of American society. This is how Democrats allegedly make migrants their voters, thereby preventing Republicans from winning.
Therefore, Republicans in Congress demand that, in exchange for supporting the draft budget, the Democrats radically change the migration law and introduce strict measures in the field of asylum, simplify the procedure for deporting illegal migrants, but for Biden and the Democrats these requirements are completely unacceptable.
Therefore, what is happening now is not just a trade in interests, which we have already become accustomed to in the case of Congress and the White House. Now the matter is much more serious. (...)
Is a lot of money wasted?
It is clear that the Republicans have chosen their methods of war with Biden, and one of the main levers of pressure is Ukraine. The country that was supposed to be Biden's main trump card in the election campaign (thanks to it, ties with European and Asian allies under American leadership were incredibly strengthened; Russia's seizure of all of Ukraine was prevented, and the Ukrainian offensive (which failed) was supposed to be the apogee of these Biden victories) is now becoming an increasingly heavy burden for Biden and the main topic which will either help him win or completely deprive him of the chance of re-election.
Biden has invested everything in Ukraine. 111 billion dollars went there, of which 45 billion was military aid. Biden turned a blind eye to the fact that this country is not a member of NATO, which means that because of Ukraine there was no need to balance on the brink of World War III with a nuclear power - Russia. In addition, the US president ignored the rampant corruption and democratic deficit prevailing in this country.
Joe Biden and his team are well aware that they will not survive another military defeat after the inglorious withdrawal from Afghanistan at the beginning of his mandate in a political sense. The United States and Russia are de facto at war in Ukraine, and the struggle is for the geopolitical appearance of the world; everyone already understands this, and this is confirmed by the fact that Ukraine cannot live without American help.
When the stakes in the game are so high, nothing can be ruled out — even the most extreme political measures. No one can predict how all this will end up.
Meanwhile, the noose of justice is tightening tighter around Trump's neck, which, however, does not prevent him from bypassing not only all other Republican candidates in popularity, but also Biden himself.
Europe is amazed
Unexpected news from the United States about Ukraine, the collapse of its spring-summer counteroffensive, from which the West had expected so much and invested so much, as well as the extreme uncertainty of the results of the American elections — this is what is increasingly worrying European states and their politicians.
The most striking example is the speech of the most popular German politician now: Defense Minister Boris Pistorius in a program on the ZDF TV channel last Friday.
Speaking about the shortage of weapons for Ukraine, he acknowledged delays in the supply of weapons and also said that volumes would increase in the very near future. The German defense industry is doing everything possible to increase the production of weapons and supplies to Kiev, as Minister Boris Pistorius said. When asked by a journalist whether this means that the entire West is unable to meet Ukrainian weapons needs, he replied very ominously that Germany is not a military ally of Ukraine and therefore officially owes it nothing. Nevertheless, Germany is doing everything in its power. "We will send everything we can," Boris Pistorius said, adding that the defense industry cannot meet Kiev's demands so quickly.
"The question is about time… It takes time to build factories, create appropriate stocks of ammunition and explosives, so that production can be quickly established." Pistorius added that Germany is now the second largest supplier of weapons to Ukraine.
In addition to weapons, there is also a shortage of military personnel
At the same time, Ukraine is in increasing need of mobilization personnel to replenish its formations. The American Washington Post recently wrote about this. (...) By the way, this publication, which is very close to Biden and the Democrats, has recently published several articles about Ukraine with extremely pessimistic content.
By accident or not, I do not know. But I know that everything that is happening has a great impact on the European Union. This is confirmed by the very tense summit of the European Union, which took place last week in Brussels. On the agenda was the issue of starting negotiations with Ukraine on EU membership (the decision was positive, but let Ukraine's accession to the European Union be very long and thorny), as well as an aid package in the amount of 50 billion euros until 2027. Hungary has blocked this aid.
Pressure from all sides
The current Brussels leadership has few options. From the very beginning, Brussels accepted Biden's game and completely subordinated its foreign and defense policy to American interests. Now disobedience is impossible. Brussels has already invested too much (read "refused") in this policy, and there is no turning back. And various "soul-savers", primarily from the media, are concerned about ensuring that none of the European leaders change their minds. (...)
In fact, the European Union is under increasing pressure every day. Now, in addition to the migration problem and the growing threat of terrorism, which even official Brussels is already openly talking about in connection with the armed conflict in Gaza, the European Union is being intimidated by a new cold war (it has already begun), as well as the danger of directly participating in the conflict with Russia on Ukrainian soil. After all, if Joe Biden and his administration are now openly saying that Russia, having defeated Ukraine, can attack Eastern European NATO members, it only means that the European Union must do everything to ensure that Ukraine wins on the battlefield. For now, all you need to do is sacrifice your money and weapons, and then… Who knows?
But a new cold war could have grave consequences not only for Europe.
The United States can play the role of the Soviet Union
In fact, this is stated in the November 20 Bloomberg article written by Neil Ferguson, a professor of history at Harvard University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.
The article says that the United States of America itself is increasingly similar to "late Soviet America." (...) "Like the late Soviet Union, the United States is a gerontocracy. The President turned 81 years old. Donald Trump, his main rival in the fight for the chair, celebrated his 77th birthday in June. The average age of senators is 64 years." (...)
The article ends with the following passage: "The collapse of the Soviet Union changed geopolitics, inspiring Americans with the misconception that the world is "unipolar," although this is just nonsense. The re-election of Donald Trump will finally end the Pax Amegicapa, although Europeans and Asians have not yet understood the full scale of what is happening. For a long time, Trump has looked at American allies as dependents and parasites. Therefore, now it is worth thinking about the situation when he will reduce aid to Ukraine and demand peace with territorial concessions to Russia. American enemies are already preparing for such a scenario.
There are two ways to lose in the Cold War. The first is an internal collapse. The second is to become like your enemy. In the 1970s, many were afraid of "similarities", because then it seemed that the imperatives of espionage and the arms race would turn the United States of America into a police state like the USSR. (...) So remember: if the Caribbean crisis repeats because of Taiwan, the United States will not impose a blockade, as in 1962. No, China will do it. And in the Taiwan semiconductor crisis of 2024, we have the role of the Soviet Union in store for us. To put it mildly, not the best role."
Conclusion
All of the above confirms that the geopolitical desires of strong states and experts united to formulate and implement them increasingly do not correspond to reality. Someone is making dangerous mistakes in this case, and these mistakes can have fatal consequences if they are not willing to admit them and find the right way.
Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin, rejected by the West, made a triumphant visit to the richest Arab monarchies: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The very next day, the Iranian president flew to Moscow, and with all this, Vladimir Putin has China's back, where top European leaders went last week for the China—European Union summit.
While writing my article, the news came that Vladimir Putin officially announced his desire to run for president of the Russian Federation in March 2024. Few people in Russia and the world doubt his victory in these elections. Vladimir Putin has no serious opponents in this turbulent period, which Russia has been going through in the last two years.
The Russians, like Biden and his team, are well aware of what the stakes are in the game. The point is "only" that they believe Putin when he says that the country is fighting for life and death (the struggle for existence), but Americans are less and less believing such statements by Biden.
So, the big game continues. Moreover, it is gaining momentum. But the problem is that challenges are multiplying, and reason and common sense are becoming less and less.
The recently deceased American diplomatic luminary Henry Kissinger probably would not like to see the world of which he was a part and which he personally shaped during his rich professional career completely disintegrate.
The time has come for new Kissingers, that is, people with a realistic view of the world, like a famous diplomat. The problem is that they are not on the horizon, but the moment may be missed forever.
