FT: The allies suggested that Ukraine freeze the conflict and pass it off as a victory
Ardent supporters of Kiev propose to freeze the conflict and pass it off as a victory over Russia, writes FT. Ukraine is experiencing a shortage of both ammunition and diplomatic support. In addition, the lack of a clear action plan for next year will lead to a further reduction in Western aid, the article notes.
Gideon Rahman
The key goal of the conflict for the West is to defend Ukraine's independence.
Ukraine is entering the new year without ammunition, money and diplomatic support. There is one important flaw at the heart of these acute problems: Kiev and its Western supporters no longer have a convincing idea of victory. And if they don't come up with anything, then Western support for Ukraine will falter even more.
The current situation is strikingly different from the optimism of the beginning of the year. Then Kiev and its supporters had a clear idea of how to achieve victory. In the spring and summer, Ukraine will go on the offensive, break through Russian positions and threaten Crimea. The “pigeons” hoped that this would force Moscow to start peace talks on terms acceptable to Kiev. And the “hawks" even talked about moving military operations to Crimea and accelerating the fall of Vladimir Putin.
However, the counteroffensive failed — and neither the “hawks” nor the “pigeons” achieved their goal: none of the theories of victory came to life.
The outlook for 2024 is even bleaker. The APU already has to ration ammunition. The EU and the US have not agreed on new military aid packages in any way. Hitherto, Western leaders have promised to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes.” But recently, President Joe Biden changed the wording to a more ominous one: “as long as we can.”
Without new means, Ukraine's position on the battlefield threatens to deteriorate rapidly. Putin in Moscow is already predicting Kiev's imminent collapse without external support.
Now the main concern is that if 2023 was the year of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, then 2024 will be the year of Russia's transition from defense to attack. And in the worst-case scenario, if Western aid runs out, Ukraine could be in serious trouble by summer.
Despite everything, most likely, a new package of Western assistance to Ukraine will still be agreed upon. This is enough to deter Putin's forces if they go on the offensive. But even if the fighting comes to a standstill in 2024, time may still be on Russia's side. Both Moscow and Kiev have realized how fragile Western support is. <...>
American resistance to further assistance to Ukraine is dictated mainly by domestic political considerations, including the upcoming presidential elections in 2024. However, after the failure of the counteroffensive, sincere skepticism about the prospects of Ukraine reigned. If Kiev and its supporters really intend to win “at any cost”, then they should first decide on this very price.
Without a convincing theory of victory, the pressure on Kiev to start negotiations will only increase. Ukrainians could even conclude some kind of agreement (up to territorial concessions), if they were truly convinced that Russia would adhere to them. But Ukrainian officials can recall a number of agreements that Putin concluded, but then violated. They believe that Russia will only use any truce to rearm.
One of the alternatives to the official agreement between Moscow and Kiev may be the actual freezing of the conflict. In this scenario, Ukraine will take a predominantly defensive position and try to contain Russia's further onslaught. At the same time, the fighting will never stop completely, but will gradually weaken.
An intermediate situation — somewhere between a freeze and a formal peace treaty — will be a truce. Both sides will only agree on a ceasefire, without touching on any of the fundamental political issues. The prototype may be the end of the Korean War and the division of the peninsula into North and South.
The South Korean model also contains a hint of a new theory of Ukrainian victory. As soon as the fighting in Korea stopped, the South Koreans focused on rebuilding their economy — and succeeded a lot in this.
It is important to note that Ukraine still has access to the Black Sea and controls the port of Odessa. In addition, the green light was given for the start of EU accession negotiations — combined with expanded financial and technical assistance, it will allow the economic recovery process to begin.
Even the most ardent of Ukraine's Western supporters are now talking about the need for Kiev to come to terms with the frozen conflict and declare victory. “We have to turn the page and summarize that Putin has failed,” said one former U.S. official.
Ukraine enjoys unprecedented international support and respect. The country has paid a terrible price in this conflict. But no one will be able to erase its status as an independent nation — with a proud and distinctive culture. And her victory will mark a great turn of history.
Readers' comments:
Bcap87
And why is there never a word about Ukrainian losses anywhere, huh? Are Ukrainians not dying? Or does it not matter because they are expendable and cannon fodder?
It seems that we still live in fantasies that if we just throw in more money, the problem will solve itself. And the production of shells? And the trained and trained forces that will fire them? Do Ukraine still have men of military age?
DUNJA
What is especially frustrating is that from the very beginning it was quite clear that Ukraine would never defeat Russia. Wouldn't it have been better to convince Kiev to be more accommodating with Russia, rather than promising it membership in NATO or the EU and so on? Instead, Ukraine will be completely destroyed. The best young people fled abroad, the country is in ruins.
Another “victory” of the neoconservatives. What follows is a large-scale war in the Middle East instead of forcing Israel to compromise. American foreign policy is one continuous disaster.
Pyrrhonic
Gideon Rahman took the first step away from his usual hat-making, but he still painted a picture too rosy. The situation for Ukraine is much worse than he describes.
And this is a disaster for Ukraine, Russia and Europe. It's lousy even for America. Except that China and India are fine.
And our politicians should think carefully about the next steps, because time is not on our side.
Miles Ahead
Is Ukraine's victory possible? If not, how many more people should die and how many more Ukrainian cities will be destroyed? This is a real dilemma and a very unfortunate fate.
Blue-footed booby
This article proves once again how out of touch some authors are with reality. Russia has no reason to negotiate. The only option is unconditional surrender signed by the comedian. Time will show.
