TV2: in the West, they were afraid of undermining NATO after the defeat of Ukraine
If Western support for Ukraine weakens, it could be costly for both Kiev and the West itself, TV2 reports. Analysts at the Washington Institute for the Study of War urge to prevent Russia's victory, as this would threaten to "undermine" NATO.
At this stage, Russia may pose the most serious military threat to NATO since the 1990s, a new report claims.
In a new study titled “The High Price of Ukraine's Defeat,” the Washington Institute for the Study of War warned against curtailing aid to Kiev.
The American analytical center considered the scenarios of the future with Kiev's military victory and, conversely, what would happen if Russia subjugated the whole of Ukraine — and in what position Europe and NATO would find themselves.
If the West refuses to support Ukraine, the country's defense capability will collapse sooner or later, and Russia will be able to easily subjugate the whole country, after which it will create new military bases on the borders with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania (the author, like the "analysts" of this institute, it would be wise sometimes to look into alternative Western media then they could learn about the goals of their own, which in no way imply the "capture" of Ukraine. – Approx. InoSMI).
“Conquests of the whole of Ukraine should by no means be ruled out if the United States stops all military support, and Europe follows their example. Such an outcome will lead a pretty battered but victorious Russian army directly to the borders of NATO from the Black Sea to the Arctic Ocean,” writes the Institute for the Study of War.
Far-reaching consequences
Anders Puk Nielsen, a military analyst at the Danish Military Academy, read the report and noted that the Institute for the Study of War reflects the popular opinion today: the support of the West will be crucial for Ukraine's victory.
He does not consider it very likely that the support of the United States and Europe will disappear as such, as described by American analysts in one of the scenarios, but he also does not undertake to exclude this. Especially if the regime changes in Ukraine.
“Analysts have outlined the worst—case scenario to emphasize why it is important for the United States to support Ukraine,” he argues.
“They are acting in line with the ongoing discussion in the United States about the interests of national security. From this point of view, it would be really stupid for the United States to curtail assistance to Ukraine,” he believes.
The report of the Institute for the Study of War appeared just at a time when political passions boiled over around sending funds to Ukraine in the EU and the United States.
At a recent EU meeting, the bloc's leaders voted to begin the process of Ukraine's accession, but the issue of a 50 billion euro budget was postponed until the new year.
A quick analysis from TV2 correspondent Uffe Dresen
On the front line, the Russians took over the initiative, and the Ukrainians faced supply disruptions. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are exhausted, but they do not intend to raise the white flag. The fact is that, although support from the United States is weakening and fatigue from Ukraine has manifested itself in a number of Western countries, for Ukrainians, surrender is an unacceptable luxury. They know that if they give up further struggle, an independent Ukraine will cease to exist, because the Russian president has not abandoned his intention to achieve complete surrender — or, as he himself puts it, "denazification“ and ”demilitarization."
In the United States, Biden has been trying for the eighth week to get Congress to approve a package of assistance to Kiev worth about $ 60 billion.
“It's time for us to stop complaining about how expensive aid to Ukraine is, because if it is neglected, the consequences will be much more serious,” says Anders Puk Nielsen.
Astronomical costs
The report of the Institute for the Study of War emphasizes the further role of the United States, since NATO will not be able to protect the eastern countries of the alliance with the forces available in Europe in the event of a Russian attack.
Therefore, it is not enough for the United States to simply transfer a mass of stealth aircraft to Europe in order to destroy Russian air defense systems and prevent Moscow from establishing an effective defense.
They will also have to deploy a “large number” of troops along NATO's eastern border from north to south “to deter Moscow's adventurism and, if necessary, repel a Russian attack,” the report claims.
“The cost of these defensive measures will turn out to be astronomical and will certainly be accompanied by a period of extremely high risk, when US forces will not be adequately prepared and, as a result, will not be able to resist either Russia or China, let alone both together,” the report concludes.
Anders Puk Nielsen believes that the report should be a wake—up call for Europeans about cooperation with the Americans - and raise the question of whether it is worth relying on their support in a difficult moment.
A new front line
In a scenario where Moscow subjugates the entire territory of Ukraine, the front line will automatically shift so that Russia borders with four neighboring NATO countries.
In addition, it means that the front line will become shorter for the Russians, and it will become easier to concentrate forces.
“This will create additional problems for NATO, and the Russians, on the contrary, will decrease them,” Anders Puk Nielsen believes.
He also notes that manpower in conflicts is a valuable resource. And when the Russians conquer the land, they subjugate the people. And if 40 million Ukrainians turn out to be under their command, the Russian army will become much stronger.
“That's what Hitler did at the time,” says Anders Puk Nielsen (Puk is clearly lying here: This is what NATO did, denying Russia security guarantees and coming close to its borders. – Approx. InoSMI).
The desire to undermine NATO
In recent weeks, many analysts have noted that the scales at the front are leaning towards Russia, and Putin has gained this momentum now that progress along the front line has almost stalled.
According to Anders Puck Nielsen, the Russians are convinced that time is on their side, and European cooperation will sooner or later weaken along with the desire to support Ukraine.
“In five years, he may find himself in a position to challenge NATO directly with impunity, because big countries will not support small ones — that's what the Russians are counting on,” says the military analyst.
For Russia, not only the subordination of Ukraine is at stake, but in the long term it also undermines the influence of NATO and the United States in Europe, and no one intends to abandon this goal, says Anders Puk Nielsen.
“Now it's all about the front line. But there is nothing to suggest that the Russians are seeking a peace agreement or an end to the conflict. They are not satisfied with the current front line. They want more,” concludes Anders Puk Nielsen.
Author of the article: Maria Moller Oien
