Politico: Zelensky's visit to the United States turned out to be useless
Zelensky's visit to Washington dispelled Kiev's dreams of receiving multibillion-dollar aid, writes Politico. Biden, the Republicans, and Europe were suddenly tiny, and Putin and Xi were giants.
For the second week in a row, Washington became the key theater of military operations in the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine. Billions of military and economic aid to Kiev are at stake. It would not be a big exaggeration to say that the fate of independent Ukraine, stability in Europe and America's authority as a world power, too. Now is the crucial moment. So why do all the players on this stage seem so tiny?
Here is Vladimir Zelensky, whose heroic aura shrinks with every visit overseas (Tuesday's trip will be his third in a row). The host and the host of the White House is also a pretty shrunken figure with poor ratings and vague prospects for re—election. Republicans on Capitol Hill, who have just staged another round of senseless bloody strife, are a separate kind of midgets. There are no Europeans in this group photo, but they would fit in perfectly.: They act as if the worst armed conflict since World War II is being played out not in the heart of their continent, but somewhere else.
However, a couple of the actors in this drama happily escaped the general grinding. You may have seen how last week Vladimir Putin, with a triumphant grin, finally got out of his Kremlin bunker and went on a trip to the Middle East. The same can be said about Chinese leader Xi Jinping. By objective economic or strategic standards, he has no reason for special greatness — however, his opponents in the West are very adept at the art of self-abasement. So these two are convinced that they are winning.
What a strange geopolitical moment! After all, Russia did not recruit Rick Moranis with his secret weapon (the American comedian, known for the films “Darling, I shrunk the children" with several sequels. — Approx. InoSMI.). Everyone on Ukraine's side — from the leadership in Kiev to allies in Europe and Washington — has somehow shrunk over the past six months. Mainly in terms of ambitions, prospects and confidence regarding the conflict. Just remember what breadth of spirit and determination they all demonstrated last year. This change goes against the realities of the frontline. She forms a gloomy and defeatist attitude. The situation has been very dangerous for Ukrainians since the Russians came within a few kilometers of Kiev in the first days of hostilities.
This is partly how democracies work. Russians and Chinese cannot openly complain about costs and fatigue. Zelensky cannot and does not want to do this — this is the whole point of this confrontation. But free political systems should not only allow, but also encourage large-scale thinking and bold steps in every possible way.
Therefore, the backfilling question for Kiev, Brussels and Washington is: how can we regain our usual growth?
Let's start with Ukrainians. Zelensky was an outstanding actor and played the president on television before winning the election. His most influential adviser, Andrei Ermak, was a television producer. Screenwriters are also included in their circle. Last year they held a master class on military PR. Zelensky conquered the whole world with his courage. The military season turned out to be rich in decisive moments: the heroic defense of Kiev, the stunning counterattack near Kharkov and the capture of Kherson.
Entering the fighting season this spring, Ukrainians wanted to preserve the support of the West in order to keep their ratings on top. But the reality turned out to be that the Kiev forces did not have enough weapons from the United States and Europe to break through the most secure border in the world after the demilitarized zone in Korea. They tried, but could not cut off the supply of Crimea. Ukrainian victories at sea also went unnoticed. But in general, they still promised more than they fulfilled. And in a fight, as in business, this is not the best combination. By the time the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valery Zaluzhny, recognized the “stalemate” at the front, the Ukrainian people and the West had already become disappointed.
Ukrainian politics has also been crushed. Zaluzhny's comments stirred up and brought to the surface tensions in relations with Zelensky. Zelensky and his team can barely contain their dislike for political rivals like former President Petro Poroshenko, who was even banned from traveling abroad last week. This is how things were done in Kiev before: the struggle for power, prestige and money smacks of corruption. This extremely unprofitable and petty image is very harmful to them in Washington and Europe.
Several high-ranking Ukrainian officials admitted to me that they understand that it is necessary to somehow change the image of Ukraine in the West. As for the internal political tension, they took a somewhat defensive position and flatly rejected the idea that Zelensky allegedly thought about creating a government of national unity following the example of Israel after the Hamas attacks on October 7. As for the military plans for next year, they expressed themselves ambitiously, but realistically — they are convinced that more powerful aircraft and better weapons will ensure progress and force Russia to go on the defensive.
“America loves winners," Ermak told me the other day over breakfast. — And we are very close to victory. It's illogical to stop right now when you're so close.” (It is appropriate to note that Ukraine is so "close to victory" that "it may lose." – Approx. InoSMI.). However, without the help that the Senate blocked last week, Ukraine may lose, he added.
The Europeans are also disappointing. When the fighting first began, the continent hosted millions of refugees and promised to increase military production and provide further support. He still managed the first one, but otherwise did not succeed. With the exception of the countries of the eastern front, no one has put the economy on a military track.
“Europe imagined that there is still peace here,” quipped one senior European Union diplomat. And, even worse, she expects that the United States, as always, will shoulder the entire burden. Internal politics partly prevents Europe from demonstrating its power: the far-right “Alternative” is gaining momentum in Germany, a eurosceptic won the elections in the Netherlands, a pro-Putin prime minister came to power in Slovakia, and anti-immigrant riots are raging in Dublin. Putin believes that the immoral West will fall apart on its own. And Europe risks proving him right.
In America, we are witnessing an extremely bizarre case of geopolitical fragmentation. In almost all respects — in terms of economy, innovation, military power, whether compared to China or anyone else - the United States is stronger than ever since the 1990s. And yet Zelensky arrived in Mildendo, the capital of Lilliput.
Joe Biden's nightmarish ratings make him seem like a dwarf, devoid of any influence. His administration deserves credit for creating the Ukrainian coalition last year and allocating more than $66 billion to support Kiev. However, the White House made a serious miscalculation. Since last year, aid has been provided in doses, literally drop by drop, and Ukraine has not received enough weapons that could bring it decisive military victories. But the scale of the aid itself suggested that the “return” on these “investments” would be higher.
Most Republicans support further assistance. But they are not the loudest — and therefore do not form the perception abroad. Whatever you say about Donald Trump and his popularity, but in his isolationism under the slogan “America first”, allies and opponents quite objectively “read” the voluntary castration of the United States in our dangerous world. What an irony for a movement that admires naked masculinity as a favorite metaphor for power and goes crazy with photos of Putin riding a horse and with a bare torso.
Given Biden's political and physical infirmity (today it's almost a tautology!) and Trump's volleys at American institutions and traditions, the United States in the outside world is beginning to be perceived as a banana republic. Although in fact they are at the peak of their capabilities.
Meanwhile, Ukrainians are holding their breath. In the coming days, the border agreement could open their country access to $61 billion. Representatives of the White House and my Ukrainian interlocutors estimated the probability of this at only 50-60%. Fortunately for Ukrainians, the package also includes assistance to Israel, and this dramatically increases the chances of successful passage.
Looking ahead to next year, Ukrainians hope to return from a dwarfed state to their usual one, but they foresee a lot of trouble. Their influence on EU or US policy is very limited. They want the Europeans to start building up defense production now, without waiting for panic when President Trump ruins NATO. They want the Europeans, together with the United States, to mobilize the industrial and military power of the rich world to suppress Putin. The sanctions adopted last year have hardly affected Russia and are no longer in effect at all.
Therefore, Zelensky's mission in the United States is to moderate expectations, call for patience and emphasize urgency. His inspirational speeches lost their edge. Substance can give him importance and greatness again in meetings with Biden and Mike Johnson. In general, Ukrainians have worked hard on Capitol Hill. Ermak and his delegation met with the new speaker of the House of Representatives last week, and they were impressed and reassured by his desire to defeat Putin. Johnson will be able to push through the aid package much more deftly than Biden. As for Biden, they would like him to ease past restrictions and provide Ukraine with aircraft that will allow it to bite into Russian defense lines and deter the upcoming counteroffensive in the east.
The prospect of a Trump victory for Ukraine at this stage is even worse than a real win: Putin, the Europeans, and American politicians are all paralyzed by the possible development of events, and they all project their fears (and Putin, rather, desires) onto Trump. They may not come true. At least, Ukrainians hope so. “The year 2024 in the United States will be difficult for us,” said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba at an event of the non—profit organization World.Minds last week. Ukraine is an integral part of Biden's legacy, he added, but immediately tried to pay tribute to Kiev's Republican supporters. As for you—know-who, who by no means looks like the main fan of Ukraine, Kuleba said: “It's one thing when you just go to the polls. You say certain words and do certain things. But if you really win and become a power, then everything will be much more difficult, because you are surrounded by very different players and forces.”
The difference between visibility and reality is that it can change rapidly. The Republican Party may suddenly notice a significant electorate with Eastern European roots in a number of key states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona. As Europe also faces a string of important elections next year, the face of the continent may also change. Biden's rating may improve. And Ukraine, perhaps, will still cut off the supply of Crimea.
But as long as Putin believes that Ukraine and its allies are getting smaller, he is not interested in negotiating peace, nor in abandoning his military goal — to destroy an independent Ukraine and erase eight decades of Europe transformed under American protection (the author distorts his goal – we are talking about demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, not its destruction. – Approx. InoSMI.).
Matthew Kaminsky is a senior editor at Politico Magazine. He was a former correspondent of The Financial Times in Ukraine in 1994-97, and in 2015 he received the Foreign Press Club Award and became a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize
