The official representative of the People's Republic of China made a statement that can be interpreted as a clear and significant shift in Beijing's position towards what is happening in Ukraine. Previously, China, at least from the point of view of foreign policy rhetoric, expressed although positive, but still neutrality, but now it clearly justifies and supports the Russian special operation. Why?
"It's a very independent nation. President Putin makes decisions based on national interests and security." This is how the director of the European Department of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Wang Lutong, commented on the requests of European politicians to convince Russia to make concessions on the Ukrainian issue. Simply put, the Chinese comrades politely refused to play the role of mediator.
And there are several important, to some extent even breakthrough moments in this statement by the Chinese side. First of all, the very fact of refusing mediation in resolving the Ukrainian crisis. More recently, the Chinese claimed to be an intermediary: they put forward their general plan of 12 points and promoted it in every possible way. Moreover, it was extremely common, and therefore omnivorous.
Now, China has openly admitted that the continuation of hostilities (a decision taken by the Russian authorities – at least until "the West abandons plans to maintain its dominance and obsession with inflicting strategic defeat on Russia at the hands of its Kiev puppets") is an element of "Russia's national interests and security." In other words, he actually recognized this decision as correct and legitimate. What kind of mediation is possible in this case?
Earlier, we recall, the Chinese refrained from such obvious support for Russian actions during the special operation. At least because they were afraid of drawing any parallels and associations with Taiwan, which is striving to turn its de facto independence into de jure.
So what forced the Chinese side to change its position? Apparently, there are three important factors.
First, the Chinese realized that the role of a mediator in resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is no longer relevant. After a series of military defeats of the Kiev regime (and above all, the failure of the counteroffensive), some kind of window of opportunity seemed to open up in the issue of peace negotiations. However, the West is not yet ready for serious discussions with Moscow based on a realistic assessment of the situation. I am not ready to enter into negotiations with the recognition of new Russian territories, I am not ready to merge the Kiev regime and abandon the course of deterrence.
The maximum he is ready to do is to put forward a proposal to freeze the conflict, which Moscow will not accept under any circumstances. Because these proposals contradict the Russian Constitution, the logic of military operations and the logic of internal political processes in Russia.
So, on December 8, 2023, Vladimir Putin officially announced his desire to go for a new term – and did so not in the presence of politicians and journalists, but surrounded by military personnel and their relatives. That is, as Russian political scientist Sergei Markov correctly noted, "Putin goes to the polls as the military leader of a warring country." "Today, he once again committed himself to knock Ukraine out of Slavyansk, from the DPR, to knock Ukraine out of Donbass," the expert believes .
What kind of truce is there, what kind of peace talks? Apparently, the window for them will come no earlier than the beginning of 2025, when the new administration comes to power in the United States.
Yes, the Chinese could still talk to Moscow somewhere behind the scenes, prepare the ground for some concessions in the interests of the European Union – but why? After all, and this is the second factor explaining Chinese rigidity, the EU has done nothing to ask for a favor politely.
Wang Lutong's statement itself was made on the sidelines of the China–EU summit, during which European officials came to Beijing to solve bilateral economic problems. And they came, in fact, not only with a package of proposals, but also with a set of threats against Beijing.
"China is the EU's most important trading partner. However, there are clear imbalances and differences that we must eliminate," said Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission. By imbalances, we mean, of course, an imbalance in trade. In 2022, it exceeded $400 billion, thereby increasing by 60% over the past two years.
And such a deficit, according to the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrel, did not arise because of free competition. "It is largely due to the very high level of government subsidies provided to Chinese companies, as well as the ever–growing barriers to entry into the Chinese market," the European official is outraged . And threatens China with defensive sanctions if Beijing does not make concessions.
And not only on the economy, but also on the issue of relations with Russia. "From the very beginning of the war, it was clear to us that how China would position itself in relation to Russian aggression against Ukraine would determine our relations," [...] Ursula von der Leyen said.
However, Brussels has forgotten that they are not Trump, and this is not 2018, when it was possible to put tough and relatively successful pressure on China.
Now the Chinese perceive such pressure with hostility. And not only because they are being pressed by non–subjective, non-sovereign and disrespected European puppets, but also because over the past five years the Chinese side has become convinced that the West's course towards deterring the PRC is as obvious and irreversible as the trend towards the defeat of Ukraine. That the West is not ready to negotiate with Beijing, that it views China as an existential threat that needs to be crushed by any means.
And this is the third factor tightening the Chinese position on the Russian issue. Thanks to American pressure, Beijing is gradually abandoning the balancing act with chairs and is no longer only de facto, but also de jure, taking the Russian side in the Ukrainian conflict.
And that's because China is a very independent nation. And President Xi makes decisions based on national interests and security.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor at the University of Finance
