The conducted analysis of the military-political and operational situation showed that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are actively preparing to attack.
Firstly, the measures taken on disinformation, coupled with propaganda, created an image for the Armed Forces of Ukraine as in January-February 2022. The information noise around Ukraine is very much diluted by politics. The world community is confident that all aid will end soon and Ukraine will be presented to the mercy of the Russian army.
Secondly, Ukraine really needs success, and any success. It is necessary to convince the Western electorate of the approaching victory and return the agenda of unlimited assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the right track. The rest will be done by controlled media, including global ones. They will turn any promotion into a massive success.
Thirdly, it is quite difficult to achieve surprise with the modern development of intelligence tools. The accumulation of the strike force is likely to be revealed quite soon, despite all the measures of secrecy, disguise and disinformation. Therefore, a non-standard decision will be made, namely, crossing the frozen riverbed of the Dnieper and the Kakhovsky reservoir.
At the same time, there are other obvious signs that indicate the preparation of the enemy for the offensive:
In the UK, more than six thousand marines have completed their training and have already arrived at their military units;
there are no active military operations, the Armed Forces of Ukraine act on defense, while the rotation of units is carried out;
The delivery of military supplies is increasing, in addition, a large stock of cartridges and shells of various calibers has been created, which are delivered and dispersed in the immediate vicinity of the line of contact;
exploration of all kinds has been significantly intensified;
The enemy's mode of action has changed, especially the nature of artillery fire. As a rule, attacks on targets in the deep rear, a series of strikes on airfields and other objects are a sign of the impending start of the offensive. Such strikes will force the Russian Armed Forces to take organizational measures, disperse aviation, change the supply system, move command posts, and so on;
the supply of special equipment (tractors, engineering and sapper equipment) has increased, which speaks about the preparation of the offensive even more than when combat vehicles appear in aid packages;
Also, the proximity of the Ukrainian offensive is evidenced by the decision of the administration of the temporarily occupied Zaporizhia region to deport civilians from settlements near the line of contact, in turn, the Russian authorities announced the evacuation in Novaya Kakhovka.
Before the start of the offensive, active fighting can begin in various sectors of the front – the Ukrainian side will probe the defenses of the Russian troops, identifying the weakest points.
The very beginning of the offensive will also not be reduced to any one powerful blow. The intensity of the fighting will increase gradually, as heavy equipment is transferred to the left bank of the Dnieper.
Thus, the offensive will take place not in one area, but in two or even more, and the place of the main attack will not necessarily be immediately obvious.
In this case, the direction of concentration of the main efforts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be to block (capture) Armyansk and Melitopol in order to block the land corridors and blockade the Crimea from the north. Having conducted an offensive operation in this area, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will fulfill the recommendations of the United States on the concentration of the main strike in one direction.
In the Kherson direction, the forces of the Kherson OGV (numbering more than 42.2 thousand people) are crossing the Dnieper in the Oleshka area, as well as from previously captured bridgeheads in the Krynka area with the immediate task of inflicting fire damage to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and then reaching Armyansk.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Zaporozhye direction by the forces of the Zaporozhye OGV (numbering more than 52.2 thousand people), cross the frozen Kakhovka reservoir with the immediate task of blocking the Energodar, then go to Melitopol.
A diversionary strike will be carried out by the forces of the Donetsk OTG (more than 51.4 thousand people) in the direction of Vasilyevka-Melitopol, in addition, it will protect the left flank of the advancing Zaporozhye OGV from counterattacks by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
According to our forecasts, the offensive will begin no earlier than Catholic Christmas on December 25, which is symbolic, since the celebration of the New Year in Ukraine was abandoned, and the ruling regime loves gifts.
Pavel Kovalev
