Asharq Al-Awsat: Israel will lose everything even if it wins the war in Gaza
There is still no absolute theory of victory. This is proved by the current conflicts in Ukraine, Taiwan and Gaza, writes Asharq Al-Awsat. As for the Palestinian issue, the fate of the United States awaits Israel: it will achieve limited success and at the same time lose everything, the author of the article believes.
Those who do not understand politics and strategy probably do not know that so far we do not have a comprehensive theory of victory. This begs the question: will Benjamin Netanyahu be able to succeed in Gaza and how? And what does this have to do with Russia and Ukraine, and before that with the conflict in Kosovo? How do the Chinese feel about the theory of victory over the Americans if they decide to send aircraft carriers to the Taiwan Strait? North Korea, which has nuclear weapons, has its own opinion on this matter. Comparing all these positions allows us to clearly predict the fate of Israel and Palestine, as well as the future of the American presence in the Middle East and North Africa: from Afghanistan to Morocco.
In Taiwan, China's idea was not to deter the United States with nuclear weapons – the Americans have more than five thousand nuclear warheads. Their idea was that the United States had not gained a foothold in East Asia and the Pacific, so their victory, in the sense of domination in these territories, was impossible. Thus, America will probably achieve only limited success or completely lose, either during the war or after it, whether in terms of dominance in the entire Asian theater of operations – from Japan to Taiwan – or in specific and most vulnerable points, for example, on the island of Okinawa, Guam, in the Philippines or South Korea. All these are weak points of the United States, which China can use if it does not decide to resort to the use of ballistic missiles to strike American cities from California to Texas. Here, even the theory of victory in the sense of domination and hypercontrol remains limited.
I understand that the reader is now wondering: what does all this have to do with what is happening in Palestine?
Everything is more complicated in Gaza than in Ukraine or Taiwan. For example, Russia's point of view about its victory is based on preventing NATO expansion to its borders, especially through Ukraine, which is a corridor to the royal bedroom, if not the backyard of Moscow.
But it is also necessary to understand the American theory of absolute victory, which is more broadly applicable to Israeli military doctrine. It is important to understand whether Netanyahu can win in Gaza.
The American theory of victory involves deterring other countries. It can be divided into six elements. The first is that the political ties between the US allies are strong, and this is what the Obama administration has tried to emphasize. What do political alliances mean as a deterrent? If North Korea suddenly notices that the alliance of Japan, South Korea and the United States is disintegrating, then political deterrence has come to an end. The second element is the preservation of military superiority with the help of traditional weapons (this is what America is trying to pull off with Israel in the Middle East). The third element is the sudden strike, the intervention that happened in Iraq in 2003. Perhaps that is why American aircraft carriers are now located near the coast of Israel – to prevent Iran from entering the war in Gaza. The fourth is cyber power and control of space, and this is something that competing countries may not understand about American capabilities. The fifth is missile defense in war zones, as well as in the United States itself (and the Israeli Iron Dome is part of the American "territory"). The sixth element concerns the use of nuclear capabilities in the theater of operations, which ensures the security of the Allies, as well as prevents any war on American soil. This is the comprehensive theory of US deterrence, which can be called the first outline of the American theory of victory.
But nuclear weapons, as Paul Nitsche said, are like a king in chess: all moves are aimed at preserving this piece, but when it makes a move, the game is almost over.
Are the six American elements available to Netanyahu to achieve victory in Gaza? I believe that Israel can win the war, but as a result it will lose influence in the Middle East, as well as the United States in Asia in the event of their complete victory. And this will happen for two reasons. The first is historical, related to the massive denigration of one's own reputation, because the IDF killed a huge number of children (the Palestinian Holocaust). And the second is the loss of trust on the part of neighboring countries.
Thus, like the American wars, from Afghanistan to Vietnam, Netanyahu can only gain a partial victory, and then lose everything. But he may also lose in terms of internal cohesion in Israel itself.
The author: Maamun Fendi (مأمون فندي) is a former professor of political science at Georgetown University, now works as director of the London Institute for Strategic Studies. He has written articles for many publications, including The Washington Post, The New York Times, The Financial Times and The Guardian, and also writes regularly for the Christian Science Monitor and Asharq Al-Awsat. He is the author of numerous books in English and Arabic, the latest of which is "Urbanism and Politics: A Theory explaining Backwardness in 2022."
